From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(3:31) 6-D.Brien 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-4-T.Gowin.
3β0
Q2
0:04
ARZ
(:04) 1-N.Rackers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-10-S.Player.
3β3
Q3
4:58
NYJ
(4:58) 6-D.Brien 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-4-T.Gowin.
6β3
Q3
2:51
NYJ
(2:51) 17-Q.Carter pass to 83-S.Moss for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12β3
Q3
2:41
NYJ
6-D.Brien extra point is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-4-T.Gowin.
13β3
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. ARZ closed at 0%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q3
2:51
NYJ
(2:51) 17-Q.Carter pass to 83-S.Moss for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
65% β 83%
+18%
+6.37
Q4
12:53
ARZ
(12:53) (Shotgun) 4-S.King pass intended for 11-L.Fitzgerald INTERCEPTED by 51-J.Vilma at NYJ 5. 51-J.Vilma to NYJ 11 for 6 yards (32-L.Croom).
28% β 11%
-17%
-3.09
Q2
12:18
NYJ
(12:18) 5-B.Bollinger pass to 80-W.Chrebet to ARI 29 for 26 yards (24-A.Wilson).
44% β 55%
+11%
+2.67
Q3
4:58
NYJ
(4:58) 6-D.Brien 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-4-T.Gowin.
47% β 58%
+10%
+1.42
Q4
13:57
ARZ
(13:57) 4-S.King pass to 30-O.Ayanbadejo pushed ob at NYJ 18 for 14 yards (36-D.Barrett).
20% β 31%
+10%
+1.97
Q3
5:40
NYJ
(5:40) 17-Q.Carter sacked at ARI 27 for -5 yards (92-B.Berry, 97-C.Pace). FUMBLES (92-B.Berry), recovered by NYJ-67-K.McKenzie at ARI 28. 67-K.McKenzie to ARI 28 for no gain (98-R.Davis).
57% β 47%
-10%
-1.70
Q2
2:00
ARZ
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-S.King pass to 81-A.Boldin pushed ob at NYJ 33 for 20 yards (36-D.Barrett). PENALTY on NYJ-50-E.Barton, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 33.
52% β 61%
+9%
+2.23
Q1
4:12
NYJ
(4:12) 28-C.Martin right tackle to ARI 36 for 11 yards (25-I.Ohalete).
46% β 54%
+8%
+1.69
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
14:56 NYJ 2 & 10 (14:56) 28-C.Martin right tackle to NYJ 21 for 1 yard (57-R.McKinnon). EPA -0.6WP 41%
14:18 NYJ 3 & 9 (14:18) 17-Q.Carter pass incomplete to 83-S.Moss. PENALTY on NYJ-65-B.Moore, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 21 - No Play. (Q. Carter injured on play) EPA -0.9WP 39%
13:59 NYJ 3 & 19 (13:59) 5-B.Bollinger pass to 81-J.McCareins to NYJ 21 for 10 yards (28-D.Starks). EPA -0.2WP 36%
13:26 NYJ 4 & 9 (13:26) 4-T.Gowin punts 26 yards to NYJ 47, Center-85-J.Dearth, out of bounds. PENALTY on ARI-44-M.Stone, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 47. Penalty on ARI-24-A.Wilson, Offensive Holding, declined. EPA +0.4WP 35%
13:16 ARZ 1 & 10 (13:16) 22-E.Smith right end to ARI 49 for 11 yards (25-R.Tongue, 94-J.Abraham). EPA +0.7WP 64%
11:47 NYJ 1 & 10 (11:47) 28-C.Martin left end to NYJ 16 for -3 yards (51-J.Darling). EPA -1.1WP 42%
11:11 NYJ 2 & 13 (11:11) 5-B.Bollinger left tackle to NYJ 18 for 2 yards (94-P.Zellner). EPA -0.4WP 39%
10:23 NYJ 3 & 11 (10:23) 5-B.Bollinger pass to 83-S.Moss pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 5 yards (21-R.Hill). EPA -0.5WP 38%
9:57 NYJ 4 & 6 (9:57) 4-T.Gowin punts 38 yards to ARI 39, Center-85-J.Dearth. 86-K.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at ARI 39, and recovers at ARI 39. 86-K.Williams to ARI 41 for 2 yards (35-B.Askew). EPA -0.1WP 36%
9:46 ARZ 1 & 10 (9:46) 30-O.Ayanbadejo up the middle to ARI 45 for 4 yards (50-E.Barton, 72-J.Ferguson). EPA -0.1WP 64%
9:17 ARZ 2 & 6 (9:17) 22-E.Smith left tackle to ARI 49 for 4 yards (94-J.Abraham). EPA -0.1WP 63%
9:17 ARZ 3 & 2 (9:17) PENALTY on ARI-74-R.Wells, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 49 - No Play. EPA -0.8WP 63%
8:15 ARZ 3 & 7 (8:15) 33-J.Scobey up the middle to ARI 45 for 1 yard (63-D.Robertson, 94-J.Abraham). EPA -1.3WP 60%
7:42 ARZ 4 & 6 (7:42) 10-S.Player punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-N.Hodel, Touchback. EPA +0.1WP 57%
7:34 NYJ 1 & 10 (7:34) 28-C.Martin up the middle to NYJ 27 for 7 yards (25-I.Ohalete, 51-J.Darling). EPA +0.4WP 42%
7:01 NYJ 2 & 3 (7:01) 28-C.Martin up the middle to NYJ 31 for 4 yards (98-R.Davis). EPA +0.3WP 43%
6:24 NYJ 1 & 10 (6:24) 28-C.Martin right tackle to NYJ 35 for 4 yards (93-K.Vanden Bosch). EPA -0.1WP 44%
5:39 NYJ 2 & 6 (5:39) 5-B.Bollinger pass to 83-S.Moss to NYJ 47 for 12 yards (21-R.Hill). EPA +1.3WP 45%
4:56 NYJ 1 & 10 (4:56) 28-C.Martin right tackle to ARI 47 for 6 yards (51-J.Darling). EPA +0.2WP 47%
2:16 NYJ 4 & 6 (2:16) 4-T.Gowin punts 32 yards to end zone, Center-85-J.Dearth, Touchback. EPA -1.5WP 45%
2:07 ARZ 1 & 10 (2:07) 22-E.Smith left end to ARI 26 for 6 yards (50-E.Barton, 51-J.Vilma). E.Smith injured on play. EPA +0.2WP 59%
1:36 ARZ 2 & 4 (1:36) 33-J.Scobey left end to ARI 26 for no gain (55-M.Brown). EPA -0.8WP 59%
0:58 ARZ 3 & 4 (:58) (Shotgun) 4-S.King pass to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 32 for 6 yards (25-R.Tongue, 51-J.Vilma). EPA +1.3WP 57%
0:26 ARZ 1 & 10 (:26) 33-J.Scobey right tackle to ARI 36 for 4 yards (94-J.Abraham). PENALTY on ARI-70-L.Shelton, Personal Foul, 16 yards, enforced at ARI 32 - No Play. EPA -1.7WP 61%
0:14 ARZ 1 & 26 (:14) 33-J.Scobey up the middle to ARI 17 for 1 yard (94-J.Abraham). EPA -0.5WP 58%
0:00 ARZ END QUARTER 1 EPA +0.0WP 57%
Quarter 2
15:00 ARZ 2 & 25 (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-S.King pass to 33-J.Scobey to ARI 24 for 7 yards (50-E.Barton). EPA -0.2WP 57%
14:27 ARZ 3 & 18 (14:27) 4-S.King up the middle to ARI 26 for 2 yards (63-D.Robertson). EPA -0.6WP 55%
13:40 ARZ 4 & 16 (13:40) 10-S.Player punts 36 yards to NYJ 38, Center-48-N.Hodel. 83-S.Moss MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 38. 83-S.Moss to NYJ 38 for no gain (48-N.Hodel). EPA +0.3WP 52%
13:32 NYJ 1 & 10 (13:32) 5-B.Bollinger pass to 84-J.Carter to NYJ 45 for 7 yards (27-D.Macklin). EPA +0.4WP 46%
12:58 NYJ 2 & 3 (12:58) 28-C.Martin left tackle to NYJ 45 for no gain (57-R.McKinnon). EPA -0.8WP 46%
12:18 NYJ 3 & 3 (12:18) 5-B.Bollinger pass to 80-W.Chrebet to ARI 29 for 26 yards (24-A.Wilson). EPA +2.7WP 44%
11:32 NYJ 2 & 10 (11:32) 5-B.Bollinger pass to 84-J.Carter pushed ob at ARI 4 for 25 yards (27-D.Macklin). Play Challenged by ARI and REVERSED. 5-B.Bollinger pass incomplete to 27-T.Buckley. EPA -0.6WP 54%
11:04 NYJ 3 & 10 (11:04) 5-B.Bollinger sacked at ARI 37 for -8 yards (90-D.Dockett, 92-B.Berry). EPA -2.8WP 51%
10:31 NYJ 4 & 18 (10:31) 4-T.Gowin punts 31 yards to ARI 6, Center-85-J.Dearth, downed by NYJ-84-J.Carter. EPA +0.7WP 43%
10:23 ARZ 1 & 10 (10:23) 30-O.Ayanbadejo right tackle to ARI 10 for 4 yards (25-R.Tongue, 51-J.Vilma). EPA -0.1WP 57%
3:31 NYJ 4 & 9 (3:31) 6-D.Brien 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-4-T.Gowin. EPA +0.3WP 53%
3:28 ARZ 4-T.Gowin kicks 75 yards from NYJ 30 to ARI -5. 33-J.Scobey, Touchback. EPA +0.1WP 48%
3:08 ARZ 1 & 10 (3:08) 4-S.King pass to 81-A.Boldin to ARI 32 for 12 yards (29-D.Abraham). EPA +0.7WP 48%
2:41 ARZ 1 & 10 (2:41) 33-J.Scobey up the middle to ARI 35 for 3 yards (51-J.Vilma, 98-A.Harper). EPA -0.3WP 50%
2:21 ARZ 2 & 7 (2:21) 4-S.King pass to 81-A.Boldin to ARI 47 for 12 yards (26-E.Coleman, 36-D.Barrett). EPA +0.9WP 50%
2:00 ARZ 1 & 10 (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-S.King pass to 81-A.Boldin pushed ob at NYJ 33 for 20 yards (36-D.Barrett). PENALTY on NYJ-50-E.Barton, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 33. EPA +2.2WP 52%
1:55 ARZ 1 & 10 (1:55) (Shotgun) 4-S.King pass to 85-F.Jones to NYJ 11 for 7 yards (25-R.Tongue, 29-D.Abraham). EPA +0.3WP 61%
1:27 ARZ 2 & 3 (1:27) 33-J.Scobey left tackle to NYJ 11 for no gain (94-J.Abraham). EPA -0.6WP 63%
0:54 ARZ 3 & 3 (:54) (Shotgun) 4-S.King pass to 33-J.Scobey to NYJ 11 for no gain (51-J.Vilma, 63-D.Robertson). PENALTY on NYJ-92-S.Ellis, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 11 - No Play. EPA +1.1WP 60%
0:38 ARZ 3 & 6 (:38) (Shotgun) 4-S.King right tackle to NYJ 3 for 3 yards (50-E.Barton, 99-B.Thomas). EPA -0.8WP 59%
0:04 Timeout #3 by ARI at 00:04. EPA +0.0WP 57%
0:04 ARZ 4 & 3 (:04) 1-N.Rackers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Hodel, Holder-10-S.Player. EPA +0.1WP 57%
0:00 END QUARTER 2 WP 55%
Quarter 3
15:00 ARZ 4-T.Gowin kicks 72 yards from NYJ 30 to ARI -2. 33-J.Scobey, Touchback. Weather at half: 60 degrees, 17% humidity, Wind West at 22 MPH EPA +0.0WP 55%
5:40 NYJ 3 & 6 (5:40) 17-Q.Carter sacked at ARI 27 for -5 yards (92-B.Berry, 97-C.Pace). FUMBLES (92-B.Berry), recovered by NYJ-67-K.McKenzie at ARI 28. 67-K.McKenzie to ARI 28 for no gain (98-R.Davis). EPA -1.7WP 57%
4:58 NYJ 4 & 12 (4:58) 6-D.Brien 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-4-T.Gowin. EPA +1.4WP 47%
4:53 ARZ 4-T.Gowin kicks 67 yards from NYJ 30 to ARI 3. 33-J.Scobey MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback. EPA -0.0WP 42%
4:37 ARZ 2 & 10 (4:37) (Shotgun) 4-S.King pass to 81-A.Boldin to ARI 25 for 5 yards (25-R.Tongue, 50-E.Barton). PENALTY on NYJ-92-S.Ellis, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 25. EPA +1.8WP 41%
3:01 ARZ 4 & 22 (3:01) 10-S.Player punts 50 yards to NYJ 22, Center-48-N.Hodel. 83-S.Moss pushed ob at NYJ 31 for 9 yards (51-J.Darling). EPA +0.6WP 33%
2:51 NYJ 1 & 10 (2:51) 17-Q.Carter pass to 83-S.Moss for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +6.4WP 65%
2:41 NYJ 6-D.Brien extra point is GOOD, Center-85-J.Dearth, Holder-4-T.Gowin. EPA +0.0WP 83%
2:41 ARZ 4-T.Gowin kicks 70 yards from NYJ 30 to ARI 0. 33-J.Scobey to ARI 21 for 21 yards (42-R.Washington). EPA +0.0WP 17%
2:35 ARZ 1 & 10 (2:35) 4-S.King pass to 81-A.Boldin to ARI 23 for 2 yards (27-T.Buckley, 94-J.Abraham). PENALTY on NYJ-27-T.Buckley, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at ARI 23. EPA +1.2WP 17%
2:16 ARZ 1 & 10 (2:16) 32-L.Croom right tackle to ARI 40 for 2 yards (99-B.Thomas). EPA -0.4WP 20%
1:47 ARZ 3 & 8 (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-S.King pass to 11-L.Fitzgerald to NYJ 45 for 15 yards (25-R.Tongue). EPA +2.1WP 16%
1:13 ARZ 1 & 10 (1:13) 32-L.Croom left end to NYJ 41 for 4 yards (51-J.Vilma, 92-S.Ellis). EPA -0.1WP 21%
0:30 ARZ 2 & 6 (:30) 32-L.Croom right tackle to NYJ 35 for 6 yards (25-R.Tongue). EPA +0.7WP 20%
0:00 ARZ END QUARTER 3 EPA +0.0WP 24%
Quarter 4
15:00 ARZ 1 & 10 (15:00) 32-L.Croom right end to NYJ 28 for 7 yards (93-J.Reed). PENALTY on NYJ-94-J.Abraham, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 35 - No Play. EPA +0.5WP 24%
14:39 ARZ 2 & 5 (14:39) 32-L.Croom left end to NYJ 32 for -2 yards (36-D.Barrett). EPA -0.9WP 25%
13:57 ARZ 3 & 7 (13:57) 4-S.King pass to 30-O.Ayanbadejo pushed ob at NYJ 18 for 14 yards (36-D.Barrett). EPA +2.0WP 20%
13:29 ARZ 1 & 10 (13:29) 32-L.Croom right tackle to NYJ 21 for -3 yards (50-E.Barton). EPA -1.0WP 31%
12:53 ARZ 2 & 13 (12:53) (Shotgun) 4-S.King pass intended for 11-L.Fitzgerald INTERCEPTED by 51-J.Vilma at NYJ 5. 51-J.Vilma to NYJ 11 for 6 yards (32-L.Croom). EPA -3.1WP 28%
12:46 NYJ 1 & 10 (12:46) 28-C.Martin right tackle to NYJ 13 for 2 yards (24-A.Wilson, 58-K.Dansby). PENALTY on NYJ-65-B.Moore, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 11 - No Play. EPA -0.6WP 89%
12:24 NYJ 1 & 15 (12:24) 34-L.Jordan right tackle to NYJ 10 for 4 yards (24-A.Wilson, 57-R.McKinnon). EPA -0.0WP 87%
11:43 NYJ 2 & 11 (11:43) 17-Q.Carter pass incomplete to 84-J.Carter. PENALTY on ARI-27-D.Macklin, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 10 - No Play. EPA +1.0WP 87%
11:37 NYJ 1 & 10 (11:37) 34-L.Jordan right end to NYJ 13 for -2 yards (57-R.McKinnon). EPA -0.9WP 89%
11:03 NYJ 2 & 12 (11:03) 17-Q.Carter pass to 84-J.Carter to NYJ 24 for 11 yards (27-D.Macklin). EPA +1.2WP 87%
10:24 NYJ 3 & 1 (10:24) 28-C.Martin right tackle to NYJ 25 for 1 yard (92-B.Berry, 94-P.Zellner). EPA +0.5WP 90%
9:41 NYJ 1 & 10 (9:41) 17-Q.Carter pass to 83-S.Moss pushed ob at NYJ 36 for 11 yards (24-A.Wilson). D.Dockett injured on play. EPA +0.6WP 94%
9:13 NYJ 1 & 10 (9:13) 28-C.Martin left tackle to NYJ 38 for 2 yards (51-J.Darling, 58-K.Dansby). EPA -0.4WP 94%
8:34 NYJ 2 & 8 (8:34) 28-C.Martin right tackle to NYJ 43 for 5 yards (51-J.Darling, 25-I.Ohalete). EPA +0.3WP 94%
7:50 NYJ 3 & 3 (7:50) 28-C.Martin right tackle to NYJ 42 for -1 yards (21-R.Hill). FUMBLES (21-R.Hill), and recovers at NYJ 42. 28-C.Martin to NYJ 42 for no gain (21-R.Hill). EPA -1.6WP 95%
7:15 NYJ 4 & 4 (7:15) 4-T.Gowin punts 33 yards to ARI 25, Center-85-J.Dearth, downed by NYJ-42-R.Washington. EPA -0.5WP 94%
7:05 ARZ 1 & 10 (7:05) McCown at quarterback. 32-L.Croom up the middle to ARI 29 for 4 yards (72-J.Ferguson). EPA -0.1WP 9%
6:35 ARZ 2 & 6 (6:35) 12-J.McCown pass to 81-A.Boldin to ARI 41 for 12 yards (36-D.Barrett). FUMBLES (36-D.Barrett), RECOVERED by NYJ-51-J.Vilma at NYJ 44. 51-J.Vilma to NYJ 44 for no gain (65-A.Clement). EPA -2.8WP 8%
6:23 NYJ 1 & 10 (6:23) 34-L.Jordan left tackle to NYJ 46 for 2 yards (51-J.Darling). EPA -0.4WP 96%
5:38 NYJ 2 & 8 (5:38) 28-C.Martin left end to NYJ 47 for 1 yard (57-R.McKinnon). EPA -0.6WP 96%
4:55 NYJ 3 & 7 (4:55) 28-C.Martin right tackle to ARI 38 for 15 yards (21-R.Hill). EPA +2.0WP 95%
4:08 NYJ 1 & 10 (4:08) 34-L.Jordan left tackle to ARI 36 for 2 yards (57-R.McKinnon). EPA -0.4WP 98%
4:00 Timeout #1 by ARI at 04:00. EPA +0.0WP 98%
4:00 NYJ 2 & 8 (4:00) 17-Q.Carter pass to 33-J.Sowell to ARI 33 for 3 yards (58-K.Dansby). EPA -0.1WP 98%
3:46 Timeout #2 by ARI at 03:46. EPA +0.0WP 98%
3:45 NYJ 3 & 5 (3:45) 34-L.Jordan right tackle to ARI 23 for 10 yards (21-R.Hill). PENALTY on NYJ-88-A.Becht, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 33 - No Play. EPA -1.5WP 98%
3:38 NYJ 3 & 15 (3:38) 34-L.Jordan up the middle to ARI 38 for 5 yards (90-D.Dockett). R.Hill injured on play. EPA -0.8WP 98%
3:19 NYJ 4 & 10 (3:19) 4-T.Gowin punts 22 yards to ARI 16, Center-85-J.Dearth, downed by NYJ-39-R.Bryant. EPA -0.5WP 98%