From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(12:34) 3-K.Brown 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-80-S.McDermott, Holder-7-C.Stanley.
0β3
Q2
3:46
NY
(3:46) 21-T.Barber left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6β3
Q2
3:40
NY
8-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-79-B.Jones, Holder-12-M.Allen.
7β3
Q3
6:44
HST
(6:44) 32-J.Wells right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
7β11
Q4
13:18
NY
(13:18) 5-K.Collins pass to 81-A.Toomer for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-31-A.Glenn, Defensive Holding, declined.
13β13
Q4
13:10
NY
8-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-66-J.Whittle, Holder-12-M.Allen.
14β13
Q4
7:01
HST
(7:01) 3-K.Brown 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-80-S.McDermott, Holder-7-C.Stanley.
14β16
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. HST closed at 100%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q4
1:24
NY
(1:24) 5-K.Collins pass intended for 80-J.Shockey INTERCEPTED by 98-J.Posey at HOU 28. 98-J.Posey to HOU 28 for no gain (69-R.Seubert).
48% β 7%
-41%
-3.41
Q4
0:03
NY
(:03) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 82-H.Moore (42-M.Coleman).
32% β 0%
-32%
-0.39
Q2
6:07
NY
(6:07) 21-T.Barber right end to HOU 16 for 70 yards (42-M.Coleman).
39% β 55%
+16%
+4.41
Q4
13:18
NY
(13:18) 5-K.Collins pass to 81-A.Toomer for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-31-A.Glenn, Defensive Holding, declined.
30% β 45%
+15%
+3.64
Q4
2:46
NY
(2:46) 5-K.Collins pass to 81-A.Toomer to 50 for 16 yards (23-K.Williams).
29% β 43%
+14%
+1.75
Q1
13:44
NY
(13:44) 21-T.Barber left end to NYG 27 for no gain (98-J.Posey). FUMBLES (98-J.Posey), RECOVERED by HOU-55-J.Sharper at NYG 29. 55-J.Sharper to NYG 29 for no gain (69-R.Seubert).
49% β 35%
-14%
-5.02
Q4
0:30
HST
(:30) 7-C.Stanley punts 33 yards to NYG 30, Center-80-S.McDermott. 33-D.Joyce to NYG 30 for no gain (33-J.Bell).
91% β 77%
-14%
-0.03
Q3
10:49
NY
(10:49) 12-M.Allen punts 37 yards to HOU 27, Center-79-B.Jones. 84-J.Lewis to NYG 34 for 39 yards (37-J.Harris).
52% β 41%
-11%
-2.56
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
Each play carries its expected points added, the offense's win probability before the snap and, where charted, formation, personnel and play tags.
Quarter 1
15:00 GAME EPA +0.0WP 54%
15:00 HST 8-M.Bryant kicks 58 yards from NYG 30 to HOU 12. 84-J.Lewis to HOU 28 for 16 yards (99-B.Frisch). PENALTY on NYG-99-B.Frisch, Offside on Free Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 30 - No Play. EPA +0.0WP 54%
14:55 HST 8-M.Bryant kicks 66 yards from NYG 25 to HOU 9. 84-J.Lewis to HOU 34 for 25 yards (37-J.Harris). EPA +0.9WP 54%
14:50 HST 1 & 10 (14:50) 32-J.Wells to HOU 29 for -5 yards (92-M.Strahan). FUMBLES (92-M.Strahan), touched at HOU 27, recovered by HOU-8-D.Carr at HOU 27. 8-D.Carr to HOU 27 for no gain (92-M.Strahan). EPA -1.3WP 57%
13:44 NY 1 & 10 (13:44) 21-T.Barber left end to NYG 27 for no gain (98-J.Posey). FUMBLES (98-J.Posey), RECOVERED by HOU-55-J.Sharper at NYG 29. 55-J.Sharper to NYG 29 for no gain (69-R.Seubert). EPA -5.0WP 49%
13:23 HST 3 & 10 (13:23) 20-J.Allen to NYG 30 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NYG 30, RECOVERED by NYG-55-Dhani Jones at NYG 24. 55-Dhani Jones to NYG 24 for no gain (70-D.Graham). EPA -3.8WP 60%
13:18 NY 1 & 10 (13:18) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 87-Daryl Jones (31-A.Glenn). EPA -0.5WP 49%
13:13 NY 2 & 10 (13:13) 21-T.Barber right guard to NYG 24 for no gain (26-M.Stevens). EPA -0.7WP 48%
12:38 NY 3 & 10 (12:38) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-78-M.Rosenthal, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 24 - No Play. EPA -0.7WP 45%
12:22 NY 3 & 15 (12:22) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins pass to 21-T.Barber to NYG 20 for 1 yard (56-J.Foreman). EPA -0.9WP 44%
11:51 NY 4 & 14 (11:51) 12-M.Allen punts 33 yards to HOU 47, Center-79-B.Jones. 84-J.Lewis to 50 for 3 yards (59-K.Lewis). Penalty on HOU-51-J.McClain, Offensive Holding, declined. EPA -0.6WP 42%
11:41 HST 1 & 10 (11:41) 32-J.Wells left guard to NYG 46 for 4 yards (55-Dhani Jones). EPA -0.2WP 58%
11:02 HST 3 & 6 (11:02) 8-D.Carr pass incomplete to 82-B.Miller. Penalty on HOU-69-C.Pitts, Personal Foul, declined. Penalty on HOU69 was for a leg whip. EPA -1.6WP 54%
10:53 HST 4 & 6 (10:53) 7-C.Stanley punts 42 yards to NYG 4, Center-80-S.McDermott, downed by HOU-30-J.Simmons. EPA +0.5WP 50%
10:44 NY 1 & 10 (10:44) 21-T.Barber up the middle to NYG 7 for 3 yards (52-K.Wong). EPA -0.3WP 47%
10:07 NY 2 & 7 (10:07) 5-K.Collins pass to 81-A.Toomer to NYG 18 for 11 yards (52-K.Wong). EPA +1.4WP 46%
9:36 NY 1 & 10 (9:36) 5-K.Collins sacked at NYG 15 for -3 yards (Team). NYG5 Collins tripped on the feet of an offensive line, dropping to pass. EPA -1.1WP 48%
9:12 NY 2 & 13 (9:12) 21-T.Barber right end to NYG 22 for 7 yards (31-A.Glenn, 98-J.Posey). EPA +0.3WP 46%
8:30 NY 3 & 6 (8:30) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 81-A.Toomer (42-M.Coleman). EPA -1.3WP 46%
8:24 NY 4 & 6 (8:24) 12-M.Allen punts 31 yards to HOU 47, Center-79-B.Jones. 84-J.Lewis to HOU 48 for 1 yard (23-O.Stoutmire, 83-M.Rivers). EPA -0.8WP 42%
8:16 HST 1 & 10 (8:16) 8-D.Carr up the middle to NYG 32 for 20 yards (23-O.Stoutmire). EPA +1.3WP 58%
7:39 HST 1 & 10 (7:39) 20-J.Allen left end to NYG 29 for 3 yards (55-Dhani Jones; 24-W.Peterson). PENALTY on HOU-86-J.Gaffney, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 32 - No Play. EPA -1.2WP 63%
7:12 HST 1 & 20 (7:12) 8-D.Carr sacked at NYG 45 for -3 yards (90-K.Holmes). EPA -0.7WP 58%
6:29 HST 2 & 23 (6:29) 20-J.Allen left end to NYG 46 for -1 yards (90-K.Holmes). EPA -1.1WP 56%
5:48 HST 3 & 24 (5:48) 8-D.Carr scrambles left end ran ob at NYG 40 for 6 yards (31-J.Sehorn). EPA -1.0WP 53%
5:26 HST 4 & 18 (5:26) 7-C.Stanley punts 25 yards to NYG 15, Center-80-S.McDermott, downed by HOU-82-B.Miller. EPA -0.1WP 52%
5:17 NY 1 & 10 (5:17) 5-K.Collins pass to 21-T.Barber to NYG 26 for 11 yards (56-J.Foreman). EPA +0.8WP 48%
4:41 NY 1 & 10 (4:41) 21-T.Barber up the middle pushed ob at NYG 38 for 12 yards (42-M.Coleman). EPA +0.6WP 50%
4:13 NY 1 & 10 (4:13) 21-T.Barber left end to NYG 39 for 1 yard (98-J.Posey). EPA -0.4WP 53%
3:35 NY 2 & 9 (3:35) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 82-H.Moore. EPA -0.7WP 51%
3:31 NY 3 & 9 (3:31) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 82-H.Moore (42-M.Coleman). EPA -1.4WP 48%
3:26 NY 4 & 9 (3:26) 12-M.Allen punts 36 yards to HOU 25, Center-79-B.Jones, fair catch by 84-J.Lewis. EPA -0.3WP 47%
3:18 HST 1 & 10 (3:18) 32-J.Wells left end to HOU 40 for 15 yards (23-O.Stoutmire). EPA +0.8WP 55%
2:38 HST 1 & 10 (2:38) PENALTY on HOU-70-D.Graham, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 40 - No Play. EPA -0.6WP 57%
2:20 HST 1 & 15 (2:20) 32-J.Wells right end to HOU 29 for -6 yards (53-B.Short). EPA -0.8WP 56%
1:39 HST 2 & 21 (1:39) 8-D.Carr pass to 82-B.Miller to NYG 29 for 42 yards (31-J.Sehorn, 36-S.Williams). Penalty on NYG-31-J.Sehorn, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. EPA +3.3WP 52%
1:12 Timeout #1 by HOU at 01:12. EPA +0.0WP 64%
1:12 HST 1 & 10 (1:12) 32-J.Wells right end to NYG 21 for 8 yards (25-W.Allen). PENALTY on HOU-82-B.Miller, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 26. EPA -1.1WP 64%
0:46 HST 1 & 17 (:46) 8-D.Carr pass to 82-B.Miller to NYG 26 for 10 yards (36-S.Williams, 28-D.Patmon). EPA +0.9WP 61%
0:00 HST END QUARTER 1 EPA +0.0WP 62%
Quarter 2
15:00 HST 2 & 7 (15:00) 32-J.Wells left end to NYG 29 for -3 yards (90-K.Holmes). PENALTY on NYG-70-L.Legree, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 26 - No Play. EPA +0.7WP 62%
14:44 HST 1 & 10 (14:44) 32-J.Wells left guard to NYG 17 for 4 yards (53-B.Short). EPA +0.0WP 65%
14:07 HST 2 & 6 (14:07) 32-J.Wells right end to NYG 17 for no gain (58-M.Barrow, 92-M.Strahan). EPA -0.7WP 63%
13:27 HST 3 & 6 (13:27) 32-J.Wells up the middle to NYG 8 for 9 yards (28-D.Patmon, 53-B.Short). PENALTY on HOU-70-D.Graham, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 17 - No Play. EPA -1.2WP 62%
12:59 HST 3 & 16 (12:59) 8-D.Carr right guard to NYG 22 for 5 yards (58-M.Barrow). EPA -0.4WP 57%
12:34 HST 4 & 11 (12:34) 3-K.Brown 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-80-S.McDermott, Holder-7-C.Stanley. EPA +0.9WP 55%
12:29 NY 3-K.Brown kicks 56 yards from HOU 30 to NYG 14. 33-D.Joyce to NYG 32 for 18 yards (23-K.Williams, 54-T.Evans). EPA +0.7WP 39%
12:25 NY 1 & 10 (12:25) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 81-A.Toomer (98-J.Posey). EPA -0.4WP 42%
12:20 NY 2 & 10 (12:20) 5-K.Collins pass to 87-Daryl Jones ran ob at 50 for 18 yards (31-A.Glenn). EPA +1.5WP 40%
11:58 NY 1 & 10 (11:58) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 45-C.Stackhouse (55-J.Sharper). EPA -0.4WP 46%
11:51 NY 2 & 10 (11:51) 21-T.Barber up the middle to HOU 46 for 4 yards (98-J.Posey, 55-J.Sharper). EPA -0.4WP 44%
11:06 NY 3 & 6 (11:06) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 80-J.Shockey. EPA -1.7WP 43%
11:01 NY 4 & 6 (11:01) 12-M.Allen punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-79-B.Jones, Touchback. EPA -0.6WP 39%
2:27 HST 3 & 9 (2:27) 8-D.Carr pass to 82-B.Miller to HOU 25 for 9 yards (31-J.Sehorn). Play Challenged by NYG and Upheld. (Timeout #2.) EPA +1.3WP 32%
2:20 HST 1 & 10 (2:20) 32-J.Wells left end to HOU 26 for 1 yard (58-M.Barrow). EPA -0.4WP 37%
2:00 HST 2 & 9 (2:00) 8-D.Carr scrambles left end pushed ob at HOU 30 for 4 yards (90-K.Holmes). EPA -0.1WP 35%
1:52 HST 3 & 5 (1:52) 8-D.Carr pass to 20-J.Allen to HOU 28 for -2 yards (55-Dhani Jones, 90-K.Holmes). EPA -0.9WP 35%
1:34 NY 1 & 10 (1:34) 21-T.Barber left guard to NYG 44 for 14 yards (26-M.Stevens). EPA +0.1WP 67%
1:10 NY 1 & 10 (1:10) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins pass to 80-J.Shockey to HOU 49 for 7 yards (43-K.Wright, 56-J.Foreman). EPA +0.1WP 70%
0:47 NY 2 & 3 (:47) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 33-D.Joyce. EPA -0.3WP 73%
0:41 NY 3 & 3 (:41) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins sacked at NYG 41 for -10 yards (95-J.DeLoach). EPA -1.0WP 71%
0:26 Timeout #2 by HOU at 00:26. EPA +0.0WP 64%
0:26 NY 4 & 13 (:26) 12-M.Allen Aborted. 79-B.Jones FUMBLES at NYG 1, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. Penalty on NYG-12-M.Allen, Illegal Kick, declined. EPA -2.0WP 64%
0:19 HST 12-M.Allen kicks 55 yards from NYG 20 to HOU 25. 84-J.Lewis to HOU 41 for 16 yards (83-M.Rivers). EPA +0.3WP 47%
0:14 HST 1 & 10 (:14) 8-D.Carr sacked at HOU 38 for -3 yards (90-K.Holmes). EPA -0.3WP 50%
15:00 NY 3-K.Brown kicks 69 yards from HOU 30 to NYG 1. 33-D.Joyce to NYG 25 for 24 yards (36-C.Carter). EPA +0.4WP 57%
14:53 NY 1 & 10 (14:53) 5-K.Collins pass to 81-A.Toomer to NYG 33 for 8 yards (42-M.Coleman). EPA +0.5WP 58%
14:23 NY 2 & 2 (14:23) 21-T.Barber up the middle to NYG 31 for -2 yards (96-G.Walker, 52-K.Wong). EPA -1.1WP 59%
13:46 NY 3 & 4 (13:46) 5-K.Collins pass to 80-J.Shockey to NYG 46 for 15 yards (26-M.Stevens). EPA +1.9WP 57%
13:13 NY 1 & 10 (13:13) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 80-J.Shockey. EPA -0.5WP 62%
13:07 NY 2 & 10 (13:07) 21-T.Barber right end to HOU 49 for 5 yards (91-S.Payne, 56-J.Foreman). EPA -0.3WP 60%
12:31 NY 3 & 5 (12:31) 5-K.Collins pass to 83-M.Rivers to HOU 43 for 6 yards (52-K.Wong, 26-M.Stevens). PENALTY on NYG-66-J.Whittle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 49 - No Play. EPA -1.2WP 61%
12:11 NY 3 & 15 (12:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 41 - No Play. EPA -0.2WP 54%
11:47 NY 3 & 20 (11:47) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NYG-65-T.Hopkins, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 36 - No Play. EPA -0.4WP 54%
11:28 NY 3 & 25 (11:28) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins pass to 21-T.Barber to NYG 36 for 5 yards (30-J.Simmons). EPA -0.6WP 53%
10:49 NY 4 & 20 (10:49) 12-M.Allen punts 37 yards to HOU 27, Center-79-B.Jones. 84-J.Lewis to NYG 34 for 39 yards (37-J.Harris). EPA -2.6WP 52%
10:32 HST 1 & 10 (10:32) 32-J.Wells left guard to NYG 30 for 4 yards (58-M.Barrow). EPA +0.0WP 59%
7:01 HST 4 & 4 (7:01) 3-K.Brown 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-80-S.McDermott, Holder-7-C.Stanley. EPA +2.3WP 54%
6:57 NY 3-K.Brown kicks 51 yards from HOU 30 to NYG 19. 33-D.Joyce to NYG 37 for 18 yards (54-T.Evans). EPA +1.0WP 37%
6:52 NY 1 & 10 (6:52) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 81-A.Toomer. PENALTY on HOU-42-M.Coleman, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at NYG 37 - No Play. EPA +0.7WP 40%
6:46 NY 1 & 10 (6:46) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 81-A.Toomer (98-J.Posey). EPA -0.4WP 45%
6:41 NY 2 & 10 (6:41) 21-T.Barber left end to HOU 49 for 1 yard (56-J.Foreman, 55-J.Sharper). PENALTY on NYG-89-D.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 49. EPA -0.9WP 43%
6:15 NY 2 & 19 (6:15) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 81-A.Toomer (42-M.Coleman, 24-E.Brown). EPA -0.7WP 35%
6:07 NY 3 & 19 (6:07) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins pass intended for 85-D.Dorris INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Stevens at HOU 39. 26-M.Stevens to HOU 39 for no gain (85-D.Dorris). EPA -2.2WP 31%
5:57 HST 1 & 10 (5:57) 32-J.Wells left end to HOU 48 for 9 yards (36-S.Williams). EPA +0.8WP 78%
5:14 HST 2 & 1 (5:14) 20-J.Allen left end to HOU 45 for -3 yards (36-S.Williams). EPA -1.6WP 83%
4:31 Timeout #1 by HOU at 04:31. EPA +0.0WP 79%
4:31 HST 3 & 4 (4:31) 20-J.Allen up the middle to HOU 45 for no gain (58-M.Barrow). EPA -1.3WP 79%
3:47 HST 4 & 4 (3:47) 7-C.Stanley punts 30 yards to NYG 25, Center-80-S.McDermott. 33-D.Joyce to NYG 33 for 8 yards (36-C.Carter). EPA -1.0WP 72%
3:36 NY 1 & 10 (3:36) PENALTY on NYG-87-Daryl Jones, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 33 - No Play. EPA -0.6WP 37%
3:36 NY 1 & 15 (3:36) 5-K.Collins pass to 21-T.Barber ran ob at NYG 31 for 3 yards (43-K.Wright). EPA -0.1WP 35%
3:31 NY 2 & 12 (3:31) 5-K.Collins pass to 81-A.Toomer to NYG 34 for 3 yards (31-A.Glenn). EPA -0.2WP 32%
2:46 NY 3 & 9 (2:46) 5-K.Collins pass to 81-A.Toomer to 50 for 16 yards (23-K.Williams). EPA +1.7WP 29%
2:15 NY 1 & 10 (2:15) 21-T.Barber right guard to HOU 31 for 19 yards (52-K.Wong). EPA +1.1WP 43%
2:00 NY 1 & 10 (2:00) 21-T.Barber up the middle to HOU 33 for -2 yards (91-S.Payne). EPA -0.6WP 52%
1:24 NY 2 & 12 (1:24) 5-K.Collins pass intended for 80-J.Shockey INTERCEPTED by 98-J.Posey at HOU 28. 98-J.Posey to HOU 28 for no gain (69-R.Seubert). EPA -3.4WP 48%
1:19 HST 1 & 10 (1:19) 32-J.Wells up the middle to HOU 30 for 2 yards (92-M.Strahan). EPA -0.3WP 93%
1:12 Timeout #2 by NYG at 01:12. EPA +0.0WP 93%
1:12 HST 2 & 8 (1:12) 32-J.Wells up the middle to HOU 27 for -3 yards (36-S.Williams). EPA -0.4WP 93%
1:07 Timeout #3 by NYG at 01:07. EPA +0.0WP 92%
1:07 HST 3 & 11 (1:07) 32-J.Wells left end to HOU 37 for 10 yards (55-Dhani Jones). EPA -0.1WP 92%
0:30 Timeout #2 by HOU at 00:30. EPA +0.0WP 91%
0:30 HST 4 & 1 (:30) 7-C.Stanley punts 33 yards to NYG 30, Center-80-S.McDermott. 33-D.Joyce to NYG 30 for no gain (33-J.Bell). EPA -0.0WP 91%
0:22 NY 1 & 10 (:22) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins pass to 80-J.Shockey to HOU 46 for 24 yards (23-K.Williams). EPA +0.2WP 23%