From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(7:13) 40-M.Alstott up the middle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
0β6
Q2
7:05
TB
7-M.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-84-S.McDermott, Holder-3-M.Royals.
0β7
Q2
3:30
DET
(3:30) 4-J.Hanson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-B.Banta, Holder-2-L.Araguz.
3β7
Q3
7:09
DET
(7:09) 4-J.Hanson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-B.Banta, Holder-2-L.Araguz.
6β7
Q3
0:04
DET
(:04) 4-J.Hanson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-B.Banta, Holder-2-L.Araguz.
9β7
Q4
11:49
DET
(11:49) 4-J.Hanson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-B.Banta, Holder-2-L.Araguz.
12β7
Q4
0:53
TB
(:53) (Shotgun) 14-B.Johnson pass to 19-K.Johnson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12β13
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. TB closed at 100%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q4
1:20
TB
(1:20) 14-B.Johnson pass to 19-K.Johnson to DET 13 for 15 yards (27-J.Wyrick).
26% β 50%
+24%
+2.61
Q4
0:53
TB
(:53) (Shotgun) 14-B.Johnson pass to 19-K.Johnson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
46% β 67%
+20%
+3.10
Q4
0:45
DET
7-M.Gramatica kicks 58 yards from TB 30 to DET 12. 80-D.Howard to DET 30 for 18 yards (27-R.Abdullah). FUMBLES (27-R.Abdullah), touched at DET 30, RECOVERED by TB-20-R.Barber at DET 31. 20-R.Barber to DET 31 for no gain (36-S.Trejo). Play Challenged by Replay Official and Upheld.
19% β 3%
-15%
-2.53
Q3
9:57
TB
(9:57) (Shotgun) 14-B.Johnson pass intended for 86-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 45-K.Schulz at TB 49. 45-K.Schulz to TB 30 for 19 yards (81-J.Green; 83-D.Moore).
70% β 55%
-15%
-3.73
Q4
0:45
TB
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-B.Johnson pass to 40-M.Alstott is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
67% β 81%
+15%
+1.05
Q2
0:05
TB
(:05) 14-B.Johnson pass incomplete to 81-J.Green.
80% β 67%
-14%
-3.17
Q4
1:32
TB
(1:32) (Shotgun) 14-B.Johnson pass to 28-W.Dunn to DET 28 for -3 yards (58-C.Kriewaldt).
39% β 26%
-13%
-1.24
Q4
2:58
TB
(2:58) 14-B.Johnson pass to 40-M.Alstott to DET 41 for 7 yards (58-C.Kriewaldt).
19% β 31%
+12%
+2.36
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
7:31 TB 3 & 8 (7:31) (Shotgun) 14-B.Johnson sacked at TB 37 for -6 yards (96-J.Hall). EPA -1.8WP 53%
7:09 TB 4 & 14 (7:09) 3-M.Royals punts 43 yards to DET 20, Center-84-S.McDermott. 80-D.Howard pushed ob at DET 25 for 5 yards (53-S.Quarles). EPA +0.4WP 49%
6:58 DET 1 & 10 (6:58) 34-J.Stewart up the middle to DET 28 for 3 yards (99-W.Sapp). EPA -0.4WP 50%
6:23 DET 2 & 7 (6:23) 8-M.McMahon pass to 87-J.Morton to DET 44 for 16 yards (55-D.Brooks). rolls right throws downfield EPA +1.5WP 49%
5:46 DET 1 & 10 (5:46) 8-M.McMahon pass incomplete to 87-J.Morton (92-A.McFarland). batted at line EPA -0.4WP 54%
5:41 DET 2 & 10 (5:41) 8-M.McMahon sacked at DET 39 for -5 yards (97-S.Rice). EPA -1.5WP 52%
5:10 DET 3 & 15 (5:10) 25-L.Warren up the middle to DET 49 for 10 yards (34-D.Jackson). draw EPA -0.3WP 47%
4:35 DET 4 & 5 (4:35) 2-L.Araguz punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-89-B.Banta, Touchback. ball hits on line EPA +0.1WP 48%
4:13 TB 3 & 10 (4:13) (Shotgun) 14-B.Johnson pass to 86-K.Williams to TB 37 for 17 yards (32-B.Westbrook). EPA +2.4WP 50%
3:28 TB 1 & 10 (3:28) 40-M.Alstott up the middle to TB 43 for 6 yards (54-B.Green). PENALTY on DET-91-R.Porcher, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at TB 37 - No Play. EPA +0.5WP 58%
3:04 TB 1 & 5 (3:04) 28-W.Dunn right tackle to TB 42 for no gain (94-L.Elliss). EPA -0.5WP 58%
2:25 TB 2 & 5 (2:25) 14-B.Johnson pass incomplete to 40-M.Alstott. heavy pressure EPA -0.8WP 56%
2:19 TB 3 & 5 (2:19) 14-B.Johnson pass to 19-K.Johnson to DET 48 for 10 yards (45-K.Schulz). EPA +1.6WP 53%
1:42 TB 1 & 10 (1:42) 28-W.Dunn left end to DET 48 for no gain (39-L.Campbell, 50-C.Claiborne). EPA -0.4WP 58%
0:57 TB 3 & 10 (:57) (Shotgun) 14-B.Johnson pass intended for 81-J.Green INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Fair at DET 18. 23-T.Fair ran ob at DET 21 for 3 yards (81-J.Green). EPA -1.5WP 53%
0:48 DET 1 & 10 (:48) 34-J.Stewart left end to DET 40 for 19 yards (20-R.Barber). EPA +1.2WP 49%
0:32 DET 1 & 10 (:32) 8-M.McMahon pass incomplete to 88-S.Anderson (21-D.Abraham). right sideline EPA -0.4WP 52%
0:24 DET 2 & 10 (:24) 34-J.Stewart to DET 39 for -1 yards (47-J.Lynch, 92-A.McFarland). EPA -0.8WP 51%
0:00 DET END QUARTER 1 EPA +0.0WP 47%
Quarter 2
15:00 DET 3 & 11 (15:00) 8-M.McMahon pass to 81-L.Foster to TB 42 for 19 yards (25-B.Kelly). Play Challenged by TB and Upheld. (Timeout #1.) EPA +2.6WP 47%
14:21 DET 1 & 10 (14:21) 8-M.McMahon pass incomplete to 87-J.Morton (47-J.Lynch). EPA -0.5WP 55%
14:10 DET 2 & 10 (14:10) 34-J.Stewart up the middle to TB 40 for 2 yards (99-W.Sapp). EPA -0.7WP 53%
13:32 DET 3 & 8 (13:32) 8-M.McMahon pass incomplete to 81-L.Foster (21-D.Abraham). EPA -1.7WP 53%
13:25 DET 4 & 8 (13:25) 2-L.Araguz punts 31 yards to TB 9, Center-89-B.Banta, downed by DET-54-B.Green. EPA +0.6WP 50%
11:34 TB 2 & 10 (11:34) 14-B.Johnson pass to 81-J.Green to TB 38 for 5 yards (54-B.Green). PENALTY on TB-67-K.Walker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 33 - No Play. EPA -0.9WP 53%
11:06 TB 2 & 20 (11:06) 14-B.Johnson pass to 28-W.Dunn to TB 29 for 6 yards (94-L.Elliss). EPA -0.3WP 50%
10:26 TB 3 & 14 (10:26) (Shotgun) 14-B.Johnson pass to 81-J.Green to TB 43 for 14 yards (58-C.Kriewaldt). EPA +2.2WP 48%
9:40 TB 1 & 10 (9:40) 87-F.Murphy right end to TB 43 for no gain (23-T.Fair). PENALTY on TB-83-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 43 - No Play. flanker reverse EPA -0.8WP 57%
9:15 TB 1 & 20 (9:15) 14-B.Johnson pass to 86-K.Williams to 50 for 17 yards (24-T.Lyght). EPA +1.1WP 54%
8:33 TB 2 & 3 (8:33) 28-W.Dunn right end to DET 48 for 2 yards (50-C.Claiborne). EPA -0.2WP 57%
7:52 TB 3 & 1 (7:52) 14-B.Johnson pass to 80-T.Yoder to DET 24 for 24 yards (23-T.Fair). EPA +1.9WP 56%
1:03 TB 2 & 10 (1:03) 14-B.Johnson pass to 28-W.Dunn to DET 17 for 13 yards (45-K.Schulz). EPA +1.0WP 72%
0:44 TB 1 & 10 (:44) 14-B.Johnson pass incomplete. PENALTY on DET, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DET 17 - No Play. Penalty on DET, Defensive 12 On-field, declined. spikes ball to kill clock EPA +0.6WP 77%
0:15 TB 2 & 6 (:15) 14-B.Johnson pass incomplete to 40-M.Alstott (91-R.Porcher). batted down EPA -0.6WP 78%
0:11 TB 3 & 6 (:11) 14-B.Johnson pass to 83-D.Moore to DET 1 for 5 yards. PENALTY on DET-58-C.Kriewaldt, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at DET 6 - No Play. EPA -0.1WP 77%
11:26 TB 2 & 10 (11:26) 14-B.Johnson pass to 19-K.Johnson to TB 29 for 5 yards (32-B.Westbrook, 54-B.Green). EPA -0.0WP 30%
10:51 TB 3 & 5 (10:51) (Shotgun) 14-B.Johnson pass to 40-M.Alstott to TB 36 for 7 yards (42-T.Bennett). EPA +1.3WP 29%
10:12 TB 1 & 10 (10:12) 28-W.Dunn up the middle to TB 38 for 2 yards (50-C.Claiborne). EPA -0.4WP 35%
9:34 TB 2 & 8 (9:34) 14-B.Johnson pass to 19-K.Johnson to TB 38 for no gain (39-L.Campbell). EPA -0.6WP 32%
8:56 TB 3 & 8 (8:56) (Shotgun) 14-B.Johnson pass to 19-K.Johnson to TB 43 for 5 yards (24-T.Lyght). EPA -0.8WP 26%
8:16 TB 4 & 3 (8:16) 3-M.Royals punts 23 yards to DET 34, Center-84-S.McDermott, out of bounds. EPA -0.8WP 22%
8:10 DET 1 & 10 (8:10) 30-C.Schlesinger up the middle to DET 35 for 1 yard (92-A.McFarland). EPA -0.3WP 79%
7:35 DET 2 & 9 (7:35) 8-M.McMahon pass incomplete to 87-J.Morton. EPA -0.6WP 79%
7:21 DET 3 & 9 (7:21) 8-M.McMahon pass incomplete to 87-J.Morton. PENALTY on TB-25-B.Kelly, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at DET 35 - No Play. EPA +2.8WP 76%
7:13 Timeout #1 by TB at 07:13. EPA +0.0WP 87%
7:13 DET 1 & 10 (7:13) 34-J.Stewart up the middle to TB 30 for 6 yards (55-D.Brooks, 47-J.Lynch). EPA +0.2WP 87%
6:36 DET 2 & 4 (6:36) 30-C.Schlesinger up the middle to TB 28 for 2 yards (47-J.Lynch, 53-S.Quarles). EPA -0.3WP 88%
5:54 DET 3 & 2 (5:54) 8-M.McMahon sacked at TB 34 for -6 yards (53-S.Quarles). EPA -2.2WP 88%
5:01 DET 4 & 8 (5:01) 2-L.Araguz punts 34 yards to end zone, Center-89-B.Banta, Touchback. EPA -0.8WP 85%
4:56 TB 1 & 10 (4:56) (Shotgun) 14-B.Johnson pass to 40-M.Alstott to TB 31 for 11 yards (50-C.Claiborne; 54-B.Green). EPA +0.7WP 25%
0:53 TB 2 & 10 (:53) (Shotgun) 14-B.Johnson pass to 19-K.Johnson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +3.1WP 46%
0:45 Timeout #3 by TB at 00:45. EPA +0.0WP 67%
0:45 TB TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-B.Johnson pass to 40-M.Alstott is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. EPA +1.1WP 67%
0:45 DET 7-M.Gramatica kicks 58 yards from TB 30 to DET 12. 80-D.Howard to DET 30 for 18 yards (27-R.Abdullah). FUMBLES (27-R.Abdullah), touched at DET 30, RECOVERED by TB-20-R.Barber at DET 31. 20-R.Barber to DET 31 for no gain (36-S.Trejo). Play Challenged by Replay Official and Upheld. EPA -2.5WP 19%
0:36 TB 1 & 10 (:36) 40-M.Alstott right tackle to DET 26 for 5 yards (96-J.Hall). EPA +0.0WP 97%
0:29 Timeout #1 by DET at 00:29. EPA +0.0WP 97%
0:29 TB 2 & 5 (:29) 40-M.Alstott up the middle to DET 18 for 8 yards (45-K.Schulz, 42-T.Bennett). EPA -0.0WP 97%
0:18 Timeout #2 by DET at 00:18. EPA -2.5WP 98%
0:18 TB 1 & 10 (:18) 14-B.Johnson to DET 19 for -1 yards. kneels to end game