From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(1:11) 4-J.Feely 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Rackley, Holder-13-C.Mohr.
3β0
Q2
2:14
ATL
(2:14) 44-B.Christian right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9β0
Q2
2:09
ATL
4-J.Feely extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Rackley, Holder-13-C.Mohr.
10β0
Q4
7:19
CAR
(7:19) 16-C.Weinke scrambles right guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10β6
Q4
7:12
CAR
4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-56-J.Kyle, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun.
10β7
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. CAR closed at 0%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q4
2:00
CAR
(2:00) 16-C.Weinke right guard to ATL 45 for no gain (97-P.Kerney).
36% β 9%
-27%
-1.93
Q2
7:00
ATL
(7:00) 44-B.Christian right guard to CAR 39 for 53 yards (93-M.Rucker).
56% β 71%
+14%
+3.91
Q4
5:32
ATL
(5:32) (Shotgun) 12-C.Chandler pass to 84-S.Jefferson to ATL 49 for 21 yards (27-D.Grant).
67% β 81%
+14%
+2.50
Q2
8:28
CAR
(8:28) 34-R.Huntley left guard to ATL 1 for no gain (56-K.Brooking; 94-H.Crockett).
54% β 40%
-14%
-2.18
Q4
3:09
ATL
(3:09) 13-C.Mohr punts 10 yards to CAR 35, Center-48-D.Rackley, out of bounds.
72% β 60%
-11%
-1.26
Q4
7:19
CAR
(7:19) 16-C.Weinke scrambles right guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17% β 26%
+8%
+3.37
Q2
10:32
CAR
(10:32) 16-C.Weinke pass to 81-D.Hayes to ATL 1 for 12 yards (94-H.Crockett).
54% β 62%
+7%
+1.85
Q4
3:57
ATL
(3:57) 43-M.Smith up the middle to CAR 45 for -2 yards (50-C.Slade).
79% β 72%
-7%
-1.65
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
Each play carries its expected points added, the offense's win probability before the snap and, where charted, formation, personnel and play tags.
Quarter 1
15:00 GAME EPA +0.0WP 54%
15:00 CAR 4-J.Feely kicks 69 yards from ATL 30 to CAR 1. 89-S.Smith to CAR 21 for 20 yards (53-M.Simoneau). EPA +0.0WP 54%
14:52 CAR 1 & 10 (14:52) 34-R.Huntley right tackle to CAR 21 for no gain (94-H.Crockett). EPA -0.5WP 54%
14:23 CAR 2 & 10 (14:23) 34-R.Huntley left end to CAR 29 for 8 yards (33-A.Ambrose). EPA +0.6WP 53%
13:48 CAR 3 & 2 (13:48) 16-C.Weinke pass to 82-I.Byrd pushed ob at CAR 44 for 15 yards (34-R.Buchanan). EPA +1.5WP 54%
13:21 CAR 1 & 10 (13:21) PENALTY on CAR-34-R.Huntley, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 44 - No Play. EPA -0.6WP 58%
13:05 CAR 1 & 15 (13:05) 34-R.Huntley right tackle to CAR 41 for 2 yards (56-K.Brooking). EPA -0.4WP 56%
12:33 CAR 2 & 13 (12:33) 16-C.Weinke pass incomplete to 81-D.Hayes. EPA -0.9WP 55%
12:29 CAR 3 & 13 (12:29) 16-C.Weinke sacked at CAR 37 for -4 yards (sack split by 75-S.Dronett and 97-P.Kerney). EPA -1.3WP 51%
12:10 CAR 4 & 17 (12:10) 10-T.Sauerbrun punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-56-J.Kyle, Touchback. EPA +0.8WP 49%
12:01 ATL 1 & 10 (12:01) 12-C.Chandler FUMBLES (Aborted) at ATL 19, and recovers at ATL 17. 12-C.Chandler to ATL 17 for no gain (55-D.Morgan). EPA -1.1WP 48%
8:32 ATL 4 & 9 (8:32) 13-C.Mohr punts 15 yards to CAR 42, Center-48-D.Rackley, out of bounds. Punt deflected by Cooper EPA -1.0WP 45%
8:27 CAR 1 & 10 (8:27) 16-C.Weinke pass to 82-I.Byrd to ATL 44 for 14 yards (56-K.Brooking). EPA +0.9WP 57%
7:51 CAR 1 & 10 (7:51) 16-C.Weinke pass to 89-S.Smith pushed ob at ATL 41 for 3 yards (34-R.Buchanan). EPA -0.1WP 58%
7:25 CAR 2 & 7 (7:25) 34-R.Huntley right tackle to ATL 45 for -4 yards (98-T.Hall). EPA -1.4WP 59%
6:50 CAR 3 & 11 (6:50) 16-C.Weinke pass intended for 81-D.Hayes INTERCEPTED by 33-A.Ambrose at ATL 36. 33-A.Ambrose to ATL 42 for 6 yards (81-D.Hayes). EPA -2.8WP 53%
6:39 ATL 2 & 10 (6:39) 12-C.Chandler sacked at ATL 28 for -14 yards (sack split by 92-G.Wilson and 64-L.Chester). EPA -2.1WP 51%
6:17 ATL 3 & 24 (6:17) 12-C.Chandler pass to 83-A.Crumpler to ATL 34 for 6 yards (30-M.Minter). EPA -0.5WP 45%
5:48 ATL 4 & 18 (5:48) 13-C.Mohr punts 50 yards to CAR 16, Center-48-D.Rackley. 89-S.Smith to CAR 21 for 5 yards (85-B.Kozlowski). EPA +1.0WP 46%
5:39 CAR 1 & 10 (5:39) 34-R.Huntley left guard to CAR 21 for no gain (95-E.Jasper). EPA -0.5WP 54%
5:04 CAR 2 & 10 (5:04) PENALTY on CAR-76-L.Jordan, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 21 - No Play. EPA -0.6WP 53%
4:55 CAR 2 & 15 (4:55) 16-C.Weinke scrambles up the middle to CAR 18 for 2 yards (56-K.Brooking). EPA -0.6WP 52%
4:14 CAR 3 & 13 (4:14) 16-C.Weinke pass incomplete to 83-P.Jeffers. EPA -1.0WP 49%
4:09 CAR 4 & 13 (4:09) 10-T.Sauerbrun punts 64 yards to ATL 18, Center-56-J.Kyle. 21-D.Gordon to ATL 33 for 15 yards (40-J.Cooper). EPA +1.3WP 45%
3:58 ATL 1 & 10 (3:58) 43-M.Smith right guard to ATL 34 for 1 yard (71-A.Lucas). EPA -0.3WP 51%
3:16 ATL 2 & 9 (3:16) 44-B.Christian right tackle to CAR 49 for 17 yards (33-D.Evans). Penalty on CAR-71-A.Lucas, Defensive Offside, declined. EPA +1.7WP 51%
3:02 ATL 1 & 10 (3:02) 12-C.Chandler pass to 44-B.Christian pushed ob at CAR 34 for 15 yards (28-D.Harper). EPA +1.0WP 55%
2:34 ATL 1 & 10 (2:34) 20-R.Thomas right tackle to CAR 31 for 3 yards (71-A.Lucas). EPA -0.0WP 60%
1:11 ATL 4 & 15 (1:11) 4-J.Feely 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Rackley, Holder-13-C.Mohr. EPA +1.0WP 54%
1:07 CAR 4-J.Feely kicks 62 yards from ATL 30 to CAR 8. 89-S.Smith to CAR 30 for 22 yards (53-M.Simoneau). FUMBLES (53-M.Simoneau), and recovers at CAR 30. EPA +0.6WP 43%
0:58 CAR 1 & 10 (:58) 34-R.Huntley right guard to CAR 41 for 11 yards (54-C.Draft; 34-R.Buchanan). EPA +0.6WP 44%
0:22 CAR 1 & 10 (:22) 34-R.Huntley right end pushed ob at CAR 42 for 1 yard (54-C.Draft). EPA -0.4WP 46%
0:00 CAR END QUARTER 1 EPA +0.0WP 44%
Quarter 2
15:00 CAR 2 & 9 (15:00) 16-C.Weinke pass incomplete to 82-I.Byrd. EPA -0.7WP 44%
14:56 CAR 3 & 9 (14:56) 16-C.Weinke pass incomplete to 81-D.Hayes (47-C.Hudson). Penalty on CAR-70-C.Terry, Illegal Formation, declined. EPA -1.3WP 41%
14:51 CAR 4 & 9 (14:51) 10-T.Sauerbrun punts 44 yards to ATL 14, Center-56-J.Kyle, fair catch by 21-D.Gordon. EPA +0.9WP 38%
14:44 ATL 1 & 10 (14:44) 20-R.Thomas left tackle to ATL 13 for -1 yards (77-K.Jenkins). EPA -0.7WP 61%
14:06 ATL 2 & 11 (14:06) 12-C.Chandler pass to 44-B.Christian to ATL 16 for 3 yards (37-J.Hitchcock). EPA -0.2WP 60%
13:20 ATL 3 & 8 (13:20) 12-C.Chandler sacked at ATL 7 for -9 yards (93-M.Rucker). EPA -1.6WP 59%
12:58 ATL 4 & 17 (12:58) 13-C.Mohr punts 24 yards to ATL 31, Center-48-D.Rackley, out of bounds. EPA -0.6WP 53%
12:51 CAR 1 & 10 (12:51) 34-R.Huntley right tackle to ATL 30 for 1 yard (56-K.Brooking). EPA -0.4WP 53%
12:12 CAR 2 & 9 (12:12) 34-R.Huntley up the middle to ATL 24 for 6 yards (56-K.Brooking). EPA +0.2WP 51%
11:38 CAR 3 & 3 (11:38) 34-R.Huntley left tackle pushed ob at ATL 14 for 10 yards (54-C.Draft). EPA +1.3WP 54%
11:07 CAR 1 & 10 (11:07) 34-R.Huntley left guard to ATL 13 for 1 yard (98-T.Hall). EPA -0.4WP 56%
10:32 CAR 2 & 9 (10:32) 16-C.Weinke pass to 81-D.Hayes to ATL 1 for 12 yards (94-H.Crockett). EPA +1.8WP 54%
9:50 CAR 1 & 1 (9:50) 16-C.Weinke pass incomplete to 86-K.Mangum. EPA -0.3WP 62%
9:47 CAR 2 & 1 (9:47) 45-B.Hoover right guard to ATL 1 for no gain (54-C.Draft). EPA -0.6WP 61%
9:01 CAR 3 & 1 (9:01) 34-R.Huntley right end to ATL 1 for no gain (97-P.Kerney, 54-C.Draft). EPA -1.7WP 59%
8:28 CAR 4 & 1 (8:28) 34-R.Huntley left guard to ATL 1 for no gain (56-K.Brooking; 94-H.Crockett). EPA -2.2WP 54%
8:21 ATL 1 & 10 (8:21) 43-M.Smith right tackle to ATL 3 for 2 yards (59-D.Hambrick). EPA +0.1WP 60%
7:43 ATL 2 & 8 (7:43) 12-C.Chandler pass to 44-B.Christian to ATL 8 for 5 yards (59-D.Hambrick; 57-L.Towns). EPA +0.1WP 58%
7:00 ATL 3 & 3 (7:00) 44-B.Christian right guard to CAR 39 for 53 yards (93-M.Rucker). EPA +3.9WP 56%
6:06 ATL 2 & 10 (6:06) 43-M.Smith right tackle to CAR 18 for 21 yards (27-D.Grant). EPA +1.7WP 70%
5:23 ATL 1 & 10 (5:23) 43-M.Smith left tackle to CAR 20 for -2 yards (57-L.Towns). EPA -1.0WP 72%
4:42 ATL 2 & 12 (4:42) 12-C.Chandler pass to 43-M.Smith to CAR 10 for 10 yards (57-L.Towns). EPA +1.0WP 71%
3:55 ATL 3 & 2 (3:55) 44-B.Christian right tackle to CAR 6 for 4 yards (59-D.Hambrick). EPA +1.0WP 72%
3:12 ATL 1 & 6 (3:12) 43-M.Smith left guard to CAR 4 for 2 yards (71-A.Lucas; 92-G.Wilson). EPA -0.2WP 74%
2:28 Timeout #2 by ATL at 02:28. EPA +0.0WP 73%
2:28 ATL 2 & 4 (2:28) 12-C.Chandler left guard to CAR 4 for no gain (93-M.Rucker). EPA -0.9WP 73%
2:14 Timeout #1 by CAR at 02:14. EPA +0.0WP 72%
2:14 ATL 3 & 4 (2:14) 44-B.Christian right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +3.1WP 72%
2:09 ATL 4-J.Feely extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Rackley, Holder-13-C.Mohr. EPA +0.0WP 79%
2:09 CAR 4-J.Feely kicks 70 yards from ATL 30 to end zone, Touchback. EPA +0.0WP 21%
2:02 CAR 1 & 10 (2:02) 34-R.Huntley left guard to CAR 34 for 14 yards (47-C.Hudson; 37-D.Vaughn). EPA +0.4WP 21%
1:56 CAR 1 & 10 (1:56) 16-C.Weinke pass incomplete to 44-C.Hetherington. EPA -0.3WP 22%
1:53 CAR 2 & 10 (1:53) 16-C.Weinke pass incomplete to 81-D.Hayes. EPA -0.3WP 21%
1:49 CAR 3 & 10 (1:49) 16-C.Weinke scrambles left end to CAR 36 for 2 yards. PENALTY on CAR-16-C.Weinke, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 36. EPA -0.7WP 19%
1:41 CAR 4 & 13 (1:41) 10-T.Sauerbrun punts 54 yards to ATL 15, Center-56-J.Kyle, downed by CAR-40-J.Cooper. EPA +0.1WP 16%
1:29 ATL 1 & 10 (1:29) 43-M.Smith right tackle to ATL 20 for 5 yards (96-J.Williams). EPA -0.2WP 81%
0:46 ATL 2 & 5 (:46) 43-M.Smith right end to ATL 26 for 6 yards (46-R.Anderson). EPA -0.1WP 81%
0:00 END QUARTER 2 WP 80%
Quarter 3
15:00 ATL 4-J.Kasay kicks 62 yards from CAR 30 to ATL 8. 37-D.Vaughn to ATL 23 for 15 yards (39-D.Richardson). EPA +0.2WP 80%
14:51 ATL 1 & 10 (14:51) 43-M.Smith left tackle to ATL 28 for 5 yards (99-B.Buckner). EPA +0.2WP 80%
13:58 ATL 2 & 5 (13:58) 43-M.Smith left tackle to ATL 35 for 7 yards (99-B.Buckner). EPA +0.6WP 81%
13:27 ATL 1 & 10 (13:27) 12-C.Chandler pass to 80-T.Martin to ATL 43 for 8 yards (55-D.Morgan). EPA +0.7WP 84%
12:42 ATL 2 & 2 (12:42) 43-M.Smith right tackle to ATL 44 for 1 yard (59-D.Hambrick). EPA -0.4WP 87%
12:17 ATL 3 & 1 (12:17) 12-C.Chandler right guard to ATL 44 for no gain (71-A.Lucas). EPA -1.8WP 86%
11:52 ATL 4 & 1 (11:52) 13-C.Mohr punts 34 yards to CAR 22, Center-48-D.Rackley. 89-S.Smith to CAR 23 for 1 yard (52-M.Stewart). EPA -0.1WP 83%
11:39 CAR 1 & 10 (11:39) 16-C.Weinke pass to 82-I.Byrd to CAR 31 for 8 yards (34-R.Buchanan). EPA +0.6WP 23%
11:02 CAR 2 & 2 (11:02) 34-R.Huntley right guard to CAR 29 for -2 yards (91-B.Smith). EPA -0.9WP 24%
10:24 CAR 3 & 4 (10:24) 16-C.Weinke pass incomplete to 83-P.Jeffers. EPA -1.4WP 21%
10:18 CAR 4 & 4 (10:18) 10-T.Sauerbrun punts 52 yards to ATL 19, Center-56-J.Kyle. 21-D.Gordon to ATL 32 for 13 yards (86-K.Mangum; 23-R.Howard). PENALTY on ATL-37-D.Vaughn, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 32. EPA +0.8WP 16%
10:05 ATL 1 & 10 (10:05) 43-M.Smith right tackle to ATL 20 for -2 yards (77-K.Jenkins). EPA -0.8WP 84%
9:28 ATL 2 & 12 (9:28) 12-C.Chandler pass intended for 44-B.Christian INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Hambrick at ATL 39. 59-D.Hambrick to ATL 38 for 1 yard (44-B.Christian). PENALTY on CAR-50-C.Slade, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 20 - No Play. EPA +0.7WP 82%
11:40 ATL 4 & 5 (11:40) 13-C.Mohr punts 36 yards to CAR 22, Center-48-D.Rackley, fair catch by 89-S.Smith. EPA +0.2WP 88%
11:32 CAR 1 & 10 (11:32) 16-C.Weinke pass to 44-C.Hetherington to CAR 28 for 6 yards (94-H.Crockett). EPA +0.3WP 15%
10:57 CAR 2 & 4 (10:57) 16-C.Weinke pass to 81-D.Hayes to CAR 40 for 12 yards (33-A.Ambrose). EPA +0.8WP 15%
10:26 CAR 1 & 10 (10:26) 16-C.Weinke pass to 85-W.Walls to CAR 48 for 8 yards (94-H.Crockett). EPA +0.5WP 15%
9:51 CAR 2 & 2 (9:51) 34-R.Huntley left tackle to CAR 49 for 1 yard (35-J.Carty). EPA -0.4WP 15%
9:20 CAR 3 & 1 (9:20) 16-C.Weinke up the middle to ATL 45 for 6 yards (75-S.Dronett). EPA +0.8WP 13%
8:46 CAR 1 & 10 (8:46) 16-C.Weinke pass incomplete to 44-C.Hetherington. EPA -0.4WP 16%
8:41 CAR 2 & 10 (8:41) 16-C.Weinke sacked at CAR 46 for -9 yards (91-B.Smith). PENALTY on ATL-91-B.Smith, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 45 - No Play. EPA +0.4WP 14%
8:23 CAR 2 & 5 (8:23) 16-C.Weinke pass to 82-I.Byrd to ATL 15 for 25 yards (35-J.Carty; 47-C.Hudson). Flea-Flicker EPA +1.8WP 14%
7:39 CAR 1 & 10 (7:39) 44-C.Hetherington up the middle to ATL 12 for 3 yards (56-K.Brooking). EPA -0.2WP 21%
7:23 CAR 2 & 7 (7:23) 16-C.Weinke pass incomplete to 82-I.Byrd. EPA -0.7WP 20%
7:19 CAR 3 & 7 (7:19) 16-C.Weinke scrambles right guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +3.4WP 17%
7:12 CAR 4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-56-J.Kyle, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun. EPA +0.0WP 26%
7:12 ATL 10-T.Sauerbrun kicks 70 yards from CAR 30 to ATL 0. 37-D.Vaughn to ATL 29 for 29 yards (46-R.Anderson). EPA +0.5WP 73%
7:03 ATL 1 & 10 (7:03) 43-M.Smith left end to ATL 28 for -1 yards (55-D.Morgan). PENALTY on CAR-55-D.Morgan, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 28. EPA +0.3WP 74%
6:38 ATL 2 & 6 (6:38) 43-M.Smith up the middle to ATL 33 for no gain (96-J.Williams). EPA -0.6WP 74%
5:53 ATL 3 & 6 (5:53) PENALTY on ATL-12-C.Chandler, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 33 - No Play. EPA -0.8WP 72%
5:32 ATL 3 & 11 (5:32) (Shotgun) 12-C.Chandler pass to 84-S.Jefferson to ATL 49 for 21 yards (27-D.Grant). EPA +2.5WP 67%
4:48 ATL 1 & 10 (4:48) 12-C.Chandler scrambles right tackle to CAR 44 for 7 yards (59-D.Hambrick). EPA +0.3WP 81%
4:02 ATL 2 & 3 (4:02) 12-C.Chandler pass to 44-B.Christian pushed ob at CAR 43 for 1 yard (59-D.Hambrick). EPA -0.5WP 81%
3:57 ATL 3 & 2 (3:57) 43-M.Smith up the middle to CAR 45 for -2 yards (50-C.Slade). EPA -1.6WP 79%
3:09 ATL 4 & 4 (3:09) 13-C.Mohr punts 10 yards to CAR 35, Center-48-D.Rackley, out of bounds. EPA -1.3WP 72%
3:04 CAR 1 & 10 (3:04) 16-C.Weinke scrambles right end pushed ob at CAR 46 for 11 yards (91-B.Smith). EPA +0.5WP 40%
2:57 CAR 1 & 10 (2:57) PENALTY on CAR-85-W.Walls, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 46 - No Play. EPA -0.4WP 44%
2:56 CAR 1 & 15 (2:56) 16-C.Weinke pass to 81-D.Hayes to CAR 46 for 5 yards (33-A.Ambrose). EPA +0.2WP 38%
2:18 CAR 2 & 10 (2:18) 16-C.Weinke pass incomplete to 82-I.Byrd (37-D.Vaughn). EPA -0.5WP 39%
2:10 CAR 3 & 10 (2:10) 16-C.Weinke pass to 83-P.Jeffers to ATL 45 for 9 yards (54-C.Draft). EPA -0.4WP 34%
2:00 CAR 4 & 1 (2:00) 16-C.Weinke right guard to ATL 45 for no gain (97-P.Kerney). EPA -1.9WP 36%
1:48 Timeout #1 by CAR at 01:48. EPA +0.0WP 91%
1:48 ATL 1 & 10 (1:48) 43-M.Smith right tackle to ATL 47 for 2 yards (27-D.Grant). EPA -0.2WP 91%
1:43 Timeout #2 by CAR at 01:43. EPA +0.0WP 91%
1:43 ATL 2 & 8 (1:43) 43-M.Smith left end to ATL 45 for -2 yards (33-D.Evans, 95-D.Wells). EPA -0.8WP 91%
1:35 Timeout #3 by CAR at 01:35. EPA +0.0WP 93%
1:35 ATL 3 & 10 (1:35) 43-M.Smith right end to ATL 45 for no gain (99-B.Buckner; 30-M.Minter). EPA -0.4WP 93%
0:47 Timeout #1 by ATL at 00:47. EPA +0.0WP 91%
0:47 ATL 4 & 10 (:47) 13-C.Mohr punts 53 yards to CAR 2, Center-48-D.Rackley, downed by ATL. EPA +0.2WP 91%
0:35 Timeout #2 by ATL at 00:35. EPA +0.0WP 10%
0:35 CAR 1 & 10 (:35) 16-C.Weinke pass to 44-C.Hetherington pushed ob at CAR 10 for 8 yards (21-D.Gordon). EPA +0.1WP 10%
0:35 CAR 2 & 2 (:35) 16-C.Weinke pass to 89-S.Smith to CAR 26 for 16 yards (37-D.Vaughn). EPA +0.1WP 12%
0:17 CAR 1 & 10 (:17) 16-C.Weinke pass intended for 89-S.Smith INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Carty at ATL 43. 35-J.Carty to ATL 43 for no gain (89-S.Smith). Play Challenged by Replay Official and Upheld. EPA -0.0WP 9%
0:09 ATL 1 & 10 (:09) 12-C.Chandler up the middle to ATL 42 for -1 yards (33-D.Evans). QB kneels down EPA +0.0WP 94%