From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(9:51) M.Stover 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-F.Wainright, Holder-K.Richardson.
3β0
Q2
11:34
BLT
(11:34) M.Stover 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-F.Wainright, Holder-K.Richardson.
6β0
Q2
10:00
BLT
(10:00) M.Stover 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-F.Wainright, Holder-K.Richardson.
9β0
Q3
5:04
BLT
(5:04) M.Stover 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-F.Wainright, Holder-K.Richardson.
12β0
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. CLV closed at 0%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q1
15:00
CLV
M.Stover kicks 68 yards from BAL 30 to CLE 2. L.Jackson to CLE 32 for 30 yards (J.Trapp).
0% β 56%
+56%
+0.94
Q2
11:14
CLV
(11:14) T.Couch pass intended for D.Northcutt INTERCEPTED by D.Starks at CLE 36. D.Starks to CLE 32 for 4 yards (D.Northcutt).
34% β 19%
-15%
-4.31
Q2
1:12
CLV
(1:12) M.Edwards up the middle to BAL 1 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by BAL-R.Woodson at BAL 0. Touchback.
33% β 19%
-14%
-5.17
Q1
6:47
CLV
(6:47) (Shotgun) T.Couch pass INTERCEPTED by R.Woodson at CLE 47. R.Woodson to CLE 47 for no gain.
43% β 31%
-12%
-2.93
Q4
13:35
CLV
(13:35) T.Couch pass intended for T.Prentice INTERCEPTED by R.Lewis at BAL 15. R.Lewis to BAL 16 for 1 yard (D.Northcutt).
18% β 8%
-10%
-4.27
Q1
5:56
BLT
(5:56) T.Banks pass intended for J.Lewis INTERCEPTED by C.Fuller at CLE 6. C.Fuller to CLE 6 for no gain (J.Lewis).
68% β 59%
-9%
-1.52
Q2
1:54
CLV
(1:54) T.Couch pass to D.Patten pushed ob at BAL 8 for 38 yards (R.Woodson). injury # 2 Couch
24% β 33%
+9%
+2.73
Q3
2:39
CLV
(2:39) T.Couch pass to D.Patten pushed ob at CLE 43 for 25 yards. Penalty on BAL-J.Trapp, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
9% β 16%
+7%
+3.22
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
5:56 BLT 2 & 10 (5:56) T.Banks pass intended for J.Lewis INTERCEPTED by C.Fuller at CLE 6. C.Fuller to CLE 6 for no gain (J.Lewis). EPA -1.5WP 68%
5:42 CLV 1 & 10 (5:42) T.Couch pass to D.Patten ran ob at CLE 25 for 19 yards (D.Starks). EPA +1.3WP 41%
5:07 CLV 1 & 10 (5:07) T.Couch pass to M.Edwards to CLE 32 for 7 yards (J.Sharper). PENALTY on CLE, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 25 - No Play. EPA -1.2WP 44%
4:41 CLV 1 & 20 (4:41) E.Rhett left tackle to CLE 18 for 3 yards (M.McCrary). EPA -0.4WP 41%
4:01 CLV 2 & 17 (4:01) T.Couch pass to E.Rhett to CLE 26 for 8 yards (R.Lewis). EPA +0.4WP 40%
3:17 CLV 3 & 9 (3:17) (Shotgun) T.Couch pass to K.Johnson to CLE 30 for 4 yards (C.McAlister). EPA -0.8WP 39%
3:17 CLV 4 & 5 (3:17) C.Gardocki punts 52 yards to BAL 18, Center-R.Kuehl. J.Lewis to BAL 38 for 20 yards (E.Little). EPA -0.2WP 37%
2:30 BLT 1 & 10 (2:30) P.Holmes left tackle to BAL 42 for 4 yards (K.McKenzie). EPA +0.0WP 66%
1:56 BLT 2 & 6 (1:56) PENALTY on CLE, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 42 - No Play. EPA +0.8WP 65%
1:43 BLT 2 & 1 (1:43) P.Holmes left tackle to 50 for 3 yards (M.Moore). EPA +0.1WP 67%
1:07 BLT 1 & 10 (1:07) T.Banks pass to O.Ayanbadejo to CLE 45 for 5 yards (J.Miller, C.Fuller). EPA +0.1WP 69%
1:07 BLT 2 & 5 (1:07) T.Banks pass to S.Sharpe to CLE 39 for 6 yards (W.Rainer). EPA +0.6WP 68%
0:00 BLT END QUARTER 1 EPA +0.0WP 70%
Quarter 2
15:00 BLT 1 & 10 (15:00) P.Holmes left end to CLE 33 for 6 yards (J.Miller, L.Sanders). EPA +0.3WP 70%
14:19 BLT 2 & 4 (14:19) T.Banks pass to O.Ayanbadejo to CLE 24 for 9 yards (C.Fuller, W.Rainer). EPA +0.8WP 69%
13:33 BLT 1 & 10 (13:33) J.Lewis right end to CLE 6 for 18 yards (P.Ellsworth). EPA +1.4WP 72%
13:01 BLT 1 & 6 (13:01) T.Banks right end to CLE 6 for no gain (W.Rainer). EPA -0.5WP 73%
12:19 BLT 2 & 6 (12:19) O.Ayanbadejo up the middle to CLE 2 for 4 yards (P.Ellsworth). EPA -0.1WP 71%
11:41 BLT 3 & 2 (11:41) J.Lewis right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on BAL-J.Mitchell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 2 - No Play. EPA -1.3WP 71%
1:54 CLV 2 & 10 (1:54) T.Couch pass to D.Patten pushed ob at BAL 8 for 38 yards (R.Woodson). injury # 2 Couch EPA +2.7WP 24%
1:47 CLV Timeout #1 by CLE at 01:47. EPA +0.0WP 33%
1:47 CLV 1 & 8 (1:47) D.Pederson pass to M.Edwards to BAL 4 for 4 yards (R.Bailey). FUMBLES (R.Bailey), and recovers at BAL 4. EPA +0.2WP 33%
1:12 CLV 2 & 4 (1:12) M.Edwards up the middle to BAL 1 for 3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by BAL-R.Woodson at BAL 0. Touchback. EPA -5.2WP 33%
1:05 BLT 1 & 10 (1:05) P.Holmes left end to BAL 26 for 6 yards (M.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-S.Sharpe, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20 - No Play. EPA -0.5WP 81%
0:58 BLT 1 & 20 (:58) J.Lewis right end to BAL 37 for 27 yards (P.Ellsworth). EPA +0.7WP 78%
0:44 BLT Timeout #1 by BAL at 00:44. EPA +0.0WP 85%
14:18 CLV Timeout #1 by CLE at 14:18. EPA +0.0WP 14%
14:18 CLV 3 & 6 (14:18) T.Couch pass to D.Northcutt to BAL 18 for 14 yards (S.Adams). EPA +1.8WP 14%
13:35 CLV 1 & 10 (13:35) T.Couch pass intended for T.Prentice INTERCEPTED by R.Lewis at BAL 15. R.Lewis to BAL 16 for 1 yard (D.Northcutt). EPA -4.3WP 18%
13:28 BLT 1 & 10 (13:28) J.Lewis up the middle to BAL 18 for 2 yards (W.Rainer). EPA -0.3WP 92%
9:59 CLV 2 & 3 (9:59) T.Prentice left end pushed ob at BAL 10 for -7 yards (R.Woodson). EPA -1.7WP 16%
9:25 CLV 3 & 10 (9:25) PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 10 - No Play. EPA -0.7WP 10%
9:04 CLV 3 & 15 (9:04) T.Couch pass to D.Patten to BAL 6 for 9 yards (K.Herring). EPA -0.1WP 8%
8:21 CLV 4 & 6 (8:21) T.Couch pass to T.Prentice to BAL 4 for 2 yards (J.Trapp). EPA -1.9WP 7%
8:14 BLT 1 & 10 (8:14) J.Lewis left guard to BAL 24 for 20 yards (C.Brown, J.Miller). EPA +1.4WP 95%
7:32 BLT 1 & 10 (7:32) T.Banks pass to P.Holmes to BAL 26 for 2 yards (D.McCutcheon). EPA -0.4WP 97%
6:50 BLT 2 & 8 (6:50) P.Holmes up the middle to BAL 40 for 14 yards (P.Ellsworth, S.Colinet). EPA +1.2WP 95%
6:11 BLT 1 & 10 (6:11) P.Holmes left tackle to BAL 42 for 2 yards (M.Moore). EPA -0.4WP 98%
5:34 BLT 2 & 8 (5:34) P.Holmes right tackle to CLE 48 for 10 yards (E.Little). EPA +1.0WP 97%
4:52 BLT 1 & 10 (4:52) J.Lewis left end to BAL 49 for -3 yards (C.Brown). EPA -0.9WP 98%
4:09 BLT 2 & 13 (4:09) T.Banks pass to S.Sharpe to CLE 40 for 11 yards (J.Miller). EPA +1.3WP 98%
3:27 BLT 3 & 2 (3:27) T.Taylor left end to CLE 4 for 36 yards. PENALTY on BAL-O.Ayanbadejo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 28. EPA +0.0WP 99%
3:13 BLT 1 & 10 (3:13) P.Holmes left end to CLE 29 for 9 yards (P.Ellsworth). EPA +0.5WP 100%
3:07 BLT 2 & 1 (3:07) O.Ayanbadejo left guard to CLE 25 for 4 yards (P.Ellsworth, W.Rainer). EPA +0.2WP 100%
2:25 BLT 1 & 10 (2:25) P.Holmes left tackle to CLE 20 for 5 yards (P.Ellsworth, W.Rainer). EPA -0.0WP 100%
2:13 BLT Timeout #2 by CLE at 02:13. EPA +0.0WP 100%