From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(2:11) 2-D.Akers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer.
0β3
Q2
12:57
NY
(12:57) 8-M.Bryant 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-79-B.Jones, Holder-12-M.Allen.
3β3
Q2
5:27
PHI
(5:27) 2-D.Akers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer.
3β6
Q2
0:46
PHI
(:46) 2-D.Akers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer.
3β9
Q4
10:42
PHI
(10:42) 5-D.McNabb scrambles left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. McNabb steps out of a tackle behind the line and went left to the end zone.
3β15
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. PHI closed at 100%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q3
11:30
NY
(11:30) 5-K.Collins pass to 45-C.Stackhouse to PHI 1 for 12 yards (23-T.Vincent). FUMBLES (23-T.Vincent), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
42% β 25%
-17%
-5.62
Q4
10:42
PHI
(10:42) 5-D.McNabb scrambles left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. McNabb steps out of a tackle behind the line and went left to the end zone.
84% β 95%
+11%
+5.68
Q3
14:10
NY
(14:10) (Punt formation) 12-M.Allen up the middle to NYG 44 for no gain. FUMBLES, and recovers at NYG 44. 12-M.Allen to PHI 43 for 13 yards (82-D.Douglas).
24% β 34%
+10%
+3.56
Q3
12:15
NY
(12:15) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 88-I.Hilliard (21-B.Taylor). PENALTY on PHI-20-B.Dawkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 36. Giants #88 Hilliard dislocated shoulder.
31% β 40%
+9%
+2.11
Q2
9:49
PHI
(9:49) 5-D.McNabb pass to 87-T.Pinkston to NYG 37 for 6 yards (24-W.Peterson).
54% β 63%
+9%
+1.49
Q1
0:24
NY
(:24) 21-T.Barber left end to PHI 20 for 31 yards (24-B.Bishop).
46% β 54%
+8%
+2.32
Q1
13:44
PHI
(13:44) 5-D.McNabb up the middle to NYG 26 for 38 yards (36-S.Williams).
57% β 65%
+8%
+2.24
Q2
1:51
PHI
(1:51) 5-D.McNabb pass to 22-D.Staley pushed ob at NYG 23 for 29 yards (23-O.Stoutmire).
66% β 74%
+8%
+2.60
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
2:11 PHI 4 & 8 (2:11) 2-D.Akers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer. EPA +0.2WP 61%
2:08 NY 2-D.Akers kicks 61 yards from PHI 30 to NYG 9. 84-T.Carter to NYG 32 for 23 yards (94-N.Kalu; 26-L.Sheppard). EPA +0.8WP 39%
2:03 NY 1 & 10 (2:03) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 88-I.Hilliard. EPA -0.5WP 42%
2:00 NY 2 & 10 (2:00) 27-R.Dayne left guard to NYG 35 for 3 yards (90-C.Simon). EPA -0.6WP 40%
1:26 NY 3 & 7 (1:26) 5-K.Collins pass to 81-A.Toomer to NYG 43 for 8 yards (20-B.Dawkins). EPA +1.7WP 39%
0:50 NY 1 & 10 (:50) 5-K.Collins pass to 80-J.Shockey to PHI 36 for 21 yards (56-S.Barber). PENALTY on NYG-80-J.Shockey, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. EPA +0.4WP 44%
0:24 NY 1 & 10 (:24) 21-T.Barber left end to PHI 20 for 31 yards (24-B.Bishop). EPA +2.3WP 46%
0:00 NY END QUARTER 1 EPA +0.0WP 54%
Quarter 2
15:00 NY 1 & 10 (15:00) 21-T.Barber right end pushed ob at PHI 18 for 2 yards (23-T.Vincent). EPA -0.2WP 54%
14:36 NY 2 & 8 (14:36) 5-K.Collins pass to 45-C.Stackhouse to PHI 13 for 5 yards (23-T.Vincent). PENALTY on PHI-51-C.Emmons, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 18 - No Play. EPA +0.8WP 53%
14:21 NY 1 & 10 (14:21) 21-T.Barber left guard to PHI 9 for 4 yards (20-B.Dawkins). EPA -0.2WP 55%
13:41 NY 2 & 6 (13:41) 21-T.Barber up the middle to PHI 8 for 1 yard (90-C.Simon). EPA -0.4WP 54%
12:59 NY 3 & 5 (12:59) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 86-R.Dixon. EPA -1.3WP 52%
12:57 NY 4 & 5 (12:57) 8-M.Bryant 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-79-B.Jones, Holder-12-M.Allen. EPA +0.2WP 47%
12:55 PHI 8-M.Bryant kicks 62 yards from NYG 30 to PHI 8. 30-B.Mitchell to PHI 22 for 14 yards (83-M.Rivers). PENALTY on PHI-58-I.Reese, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 22. EPA -0.5WP 53%
6:07 PHI 3 & 6 (6:07) 5-D.McNabb scrambles to NYG 13 for -4 yards (90-K.Holmes). EPA -1.2WP 66%
6:07 PHI 4 & 10 (6:07) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on PHI-74-D.Brzezinski, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 13 - No Play. EPA -0.4WP 58%
5:27 PHI 4 & 15 (5:27) 2-D.Akers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer. EPA +0.7WP 56%
5:23 NY 2-D.Akers kicks 63 yards from PHI 30 to NYG 7. 84-T.Carter to NYG 7 for no gain. FUMBLES, and recovers at NYG 10. 84-T.Carter to NYG 10 for no gain (36-B.Westbrook). EPA -0.6WP 39%
5:18 NY 1 & 10 (5:18) 5-K.Collins pass to 80-J.Shockey to NYG 21 for 11 yards (24-B.Bishop). EPA +0.6WP 38%
4:42 NY 1 & 10 (4:42) 27-R.Dayne right tackle to NYG 25 for 4 yards (93-L.Kirkland; 51-C.Emmons). EPA -0.1WP 40%
4:06 NY 2 & 6 (4:06) 27-R.Dayne right guard to NYG 26 for 1 yard (51-C.Emmons). EPA -0.4WP 40%
3:27 NY 3 & 5 (3:27) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 80-J.Shockey (21-B.Taylor). EPA -0.9WP 37%
3:20 NY 4 & 5 (3:20) 12-M.Allen punts 29 yards to PHI 45, Center-79-B.Jones, downed by NYG-83-M.Rivers. PENALTY on PHI-31-A.Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 45. EPA -0.2WP 33%
3:09 PHI 1 & 10 (3:09) 5-D.McNabb pass to 22-D.Staley to PHI 43 for 8 yards (25-W.Allen; 53-B.Short). EPA +0.3WP 68%
2:36 PHI 2 & 2 (2:36) 5-D.McNabb pass to 80-J.Thrash to PHI 48 for 5 yards (25-W.Allen). EPA +0.4WP 70%
1:36 PHI 2 & 10 (1:36) 22-D.Staley left guard to NYG 19 for 4 yards (53-B.Short). EPA -0.1WP 73%
0:59 PHI 3 & 6 (:59) 5-D.McNabb scrambles left end to NYG 17 for 2 yards (92-M.Strahan). EPA -0.9WP 72%
0:46 Timeout #2 by NYG at 00:46. EPA +0.0WP 70%
0:46 PHI 4 & 4 (:46) 2-D.Akers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer. EPA +0.6WP 70%
0:43 NY 2-D.Akers kicks 61 yards from PHI 30 to NYG 9. 84-T.Carter to NYG 21 for 12 yards (57-K.Adams). PENALTY on NYG-83-M.Rivers, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 21. EPA -0.2WP 29%
0:38 NY 1 & 10 (:38) 21-T.Barber right guard to NYG 22 for 11 yards (90-C.Simon). EPA +0.1WP 28%
0:12 NY 1 & 10 (:12) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins pass to 21-T.Barber pushed ob at NYG 26 for 4 yards (23-T.Vincent). EPA +0.0WP 30%
0:06 NY 2 & 6 (:06) 5-K.Collins kneels to NYG 25 for -1 yards. EPA +0.0WP 30%
0:00 END QUARTER 2 WP 28%
Quarter 3
15:00 NY 2-D.Akers kicks 59 yards from PHI 30 to NYG 11. 33-D.Joyce to NYG 44 for 33 yards (32-M.Lewis). EPA +1.6WP 28%
14:54 NY 1 & 10 (14:54) 21-T.Barber right tackle to NYG 44 for no gain (51-C.Emmons). EPA -0.4WP 32%
14:19 NY 2 & 10 (14:19) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 21-T.Barber (51-C.Emmons). EPA -0.9WP 30%
14:16 NY 3 & 10 (14:16) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 81-A.Toomer (20-B.Dawkins). EPA -1.4WP 27%
14:10 NY 4 & 10 (14:10) (Punt formation) 12-M.Allen up the middle to NYG 44 for no gain. FUMBLES, and recovers at NYG 44. 12-M.Allen to PHI 43 for 13 yards (82-D.Douglas). EPA +3.6WP 24%
13:21 NY 1 & 10 (13:21) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 21-T.Barber (51-C.Emmons). Penalty on NYG-77-L.Petitgout, Offensive Holding, offsetting, enforced at PHI 43 - No Play. Penalty on PHI-51-C.Emmons, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. EPA -0.0WP 34%
13:18 NY 1 & 10 (13:18) 21-T.Barber left end to PHI 35 for 8 yards (98-B.Whiting). PENALTY on NYG-80-J.Shockey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 35. EPA -0.3WP 34%
13:02 NY 1 & 12 (13:02) 5-K.Collins pass to 80-J.Shockey to PHI 32 for 13 yards (51-C.Emmons). EPA +1.4WP 31%
12:46 NY 1 & 10 (12:46) 21-T.Barber right end pushed ob at PHI 31 for 1 yard (23-T.Vincent). EPA -0.4WP 34%
12:19 NY 2 & 9 (12:19) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 21-T.Barber (90-C.Simon). PENALTY on NYG-78-M.Rosenthal, Illegal Touch Pass, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 31 - No Play. EPA -0.9WP 34%
12:15 NY 2 & 14 (12:15) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 88-I.Hilliard (21-B.Taylor). PENALTY on PHI-20-B.Dawkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 36. Giants #88 Hilliard dislocated shoulder. EPA +2.1WP 31%
12:10 NY 1 & 10 (12:10) 5-K.Collins pass to 81-A.Toomer to PHI 13 for 8 yards (21-B.Taylor; 32-M.Lewis). EPA +0.6WP 40%
11:30 NY 2 & 2 (11:30) 5-K.Collins pass to 45-C.Stackhouse to PHI 1 for 12 yards (23-T.Vincent). FUMBLES (23-T.Vincent), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback. EPA -5.6WP 42%
11:21 PHI 1 & 10 (11:21) 22-D.Staley up the middle to PHI 29 for 9 yards (92-M.Strahan; 98-M.Mitrione). EPA +1.0WP 75%
10:46 PHI 2 & 1 (10:46) 5-D.McNabb pass to 87-T.Pinkston to PHI 35 for 6 yards (23-O.Stoutmire). FUMBLES (23-O.Stoutmire), touched at PHI 35, and recovers at PHI 35. 87-T.Pinkston to PHI 35 for no gain (23-O.Stoutmire). EPA -0.0WP 77%
10:06 PHI 1 & 10 (10:06) 22-D.Staley left tackle to PHI 37 for 2 yards (55-Dhani Jones). EPA -0.3WP 78%
9:30 PHI 2 & 8 (9:30) 5-D.McNabb right end to PHI 38 for 1 yard (53-B.Short). EPA -0.6WP 78%
8:47 PHI 3 & 7 (8:47) 5-D.McNabb pass to 38-C.Martin to PHI 44 for 6 yards (53-B.Short). EPA -0.4WP 76%
8:09 PHI 4 & 1 (8:09) 7-S.Landeta punts 41 yards to NYG 15, Center-88-M.Bartrum. 33-D.Joyce to NYG 27 for 12 yards (58-I.Reese). EPA -0.9WP 77%
7:58 NY 1 & 10 (7:58) 21-T.Barber up the middle to NYG 26 for -1 yards (96-P.Grasmanis). EPA -0.7WP 26%
7:23 NY 2 & 11 (7:23) 21-T.Barber up the middle to NYG 30 for 4 yards (96-P.Grasmanis; 56-S.Barber). Eagles #51 Carlos Emmons reagravated hamstring. EPA -0.1WP 23%
6:43 NY 3 & 7 (6:43) 5-K.Collins pass to 86-R.Dixon to NYG 43 for 13 yards (24-B.Bishop). Play Challenged by PHI and REVERSED. 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 86-R.Dixon (24-B.Bishop). EPA -1.2WP 23%
6:11 NY 4 & 7 (6:11) 12-M.Allen punts 50 yards to PHI 20, Center-79-B.Jones. 30-B.Mitchell to PHI 28 for 8 yards (29-D.Washington). EPA +0.3WP 20%
6:00 PHI 1 & 10 (6:00) 5-D.McNabb pass to 80-J.Thrash to PHI 38 for 10 yards (24-W.Peterson). EPA +0.6WP 79%
5:28 PHI 1 & 10 (5:28) 5-D.McNabb pass to 80-J.Thrash ran ob at PHI 43 for 5 yards. EPA +0.1WP 82%
5:06 PHI 2 & 5 (5:06) 5-D.McNabb pass to 80-J.Thrash to PHI 46 for 3 yards (24-W.Peterson). EPA -0.2WP 82%
4:30 PHI 3 & 2 (4:30) 5-D.McNabb pass incomplete to 80-J.Thrash. Penalty on PHI-38-C.Martin, Offensive Holding, declined. EPA -1.7WP 81%
13:35 PHI 3 & 4 (13:35) 5-D.McNabb pass to 86-A.Freeman to PHI 12 for 5 yards (36-S.Williams). EPA +1.1WP 77%
12:56 PHI 1 & 10 (12:56) 22-D.Staley up the middle pushed ob at PHI 29 for 17 yards (24-W.Peterson). EPA +1.2WP 81%
12:26 PHI 1 & 10 (12:26) 22-D.Staley right tackle to PHI 29 for no gain (53-B.Short). EPA -0.7WP 82%
11:42 Timeout #1 by PHI at 11:42. EPA +0.0WP 81%
11:42 PHI 2 & 10 (11:42) 5-D.McNabb pass to 80-J.Thrash ran ob at NYG 39 for 32 yards. EPA +2.3WP 81%
11:22 PHI 1 & 10 (11:22) 22-D.Staley right guard to NYG 40 for -1 yards (53-B.Short). EPA -0.8WP 87%
10:45 PHI 2 & 11 (10:45) 5-D.McNabb pass incomplete to 25-D.Levens (58-M.Barrow). McNabb pass intended for Levens, blocked by Barrow. EPA -0.9WP 86%
10:42 PHI 3 & 11 (10:42) 5-D.McNabb scrambles left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. McNabb steps out of a tackle behind the line and went left to the end zone. TDEPA +5.7WP 84%
10:30 Timeout #1 by NYG at 10:30. EPA +0.0WP 95%
10:30 PHI TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-D.McNabb pass to 89-C.Lewis is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. EPA +1.1WP 95%
10:30 NY 2-D.Akers kicks 60 yards from PHI 30 to NYG 10. 33-D.Joyce pushed ob at NYG 21 for 11 yards (32-M.Lewis). PENALTY on NYG-83-M.Rivers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 21. EPA -0.7WP 4%
10:23 NY 1 & 10 (10:23) 5-K.Collins pass to 80-J.Shockey to NYG 21 for 10 yards (93-L.Kirkland). EPA +0.7WP 3%
9:53 NY 1 & 10 (9:53) 5-K.Collins pass to 21-T.Barber to NYG 47 for 26 yards (23-T.Vincent). EPA +1.6WP 4%
9:12 NY 1 & 10 (9:12) 5-K.Collins pass to 21-T.Barber pushed ob at PHI 15 for 38 yards (20-B.Dawkins). EPA +2.7WP 5%
8:39 NY 1 & 10 (8:39) 21-T.Barber left end to PHI 13 for 2 yards (24-B.Bishop). EPA -0.3WP 7%
8:39 NY 2 & 8 (8:39) PENALTY on NYG, Offensive 12 On-field, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 13 - No Play. EPA -0.7WP 7%
8:08 NY 2 & 13 (8:08) 5-K.Collins pass to 33-D.Joyce to PHI 13 for 5 yards (93-L.Kirkland; 56-S.Barber). EPA -0.0WP 5%
7:28 NY 3 & 8 (7:28) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete to 80-J.Shockey (21-B.Taylor). PENALTY on NYG-78-M.Rosenthal, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 13 - No Play. EPA -0.9WP 5%
7:23 NY 3 & 18 (7:23) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 23, and recovers at PHI 29. 5-K.Collins to PHI 29 for no gain (97-D.Walker). EPA -1.4WP 5%
7:23 NY 4 & 24 (7:23) PENALTY on NYG-5-K.Collins, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 29 - No Play. EPA -0.8WP 3%
6:35 NY 4 & 29 (6:35) 5-K.Collins pass incomplete (94-N.Kalu). Eagles' Kalu hits Collins' arm as he attempts to pass. EPA -1.8WP 3%
6:29 PHI 1 & 10 (6:29) 22-D.Staley up the middle to PHI 43 for 9 yards (55-Dhani Jones). EPA +0.7WP 99%
5:45 PHI 2 & 1 (5:45) 22-D.Staley up the middle to NYG 49 for 8 yards (58-M.Barrow). EPA +0.3WP 99%
5:28 Timeout #2 by NYG at 05:28. EPA +0.0WP 100%
5:27 PHI 1 & 10 (5:27) 22-D.Staley up the middle to NYG 47 for 2 yards (90-K.Holmes). EPA -0.9WP 100%
5:21 Timeout #3 by NYG at 05:21. EPA +0.0WP 99%
5:21 PHI 2 & 8 (5:21) 22-D.Staley left tackle to NYG 43 for 4 yards (53-B.Short; 58-M.Barrow). EPA -0.4WP 99%
4:38 PHI 3 & 4 (4:38) 22-D.Staley left end pushed ob at NYG 39 for 4 yards (25-W.Allen). EPA +0.9WP 99%
3:53 PHI 1 & 10 (3:53) 22-D.Staley right guard to NYG 36 for 3 yards (99-B.Frisch). EPA -0.6WP 100%
3:12 PHI 2 & 7 (3:12) 22-D.Staley up the middle to NYG 33 for 3 yards (92-M.Strahan). EPA -0.2WP 100%
2:28 PHI 3 & 4 (2:28) 25-D.Levens right end to NYG 32 for 1 yard (53-B.Short). EPA -0.6WP 100%
2:00 PHI 4 & 3 (2:00) 22-D.Staley left end to NYG 30 for 2 yards (23-O.Stoutmire; 58-M.Barrow). EPA -1.4WP 100%
1:52 NY 1 & 10 (1:52) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins sacked at NYG 24 for -6 yards (97-D.Walker). FUMBLES (97-D.Walker), touched at NYG 24, ball out of bounds at NYG 16. EPA -0.9WP 0%
1:42 NY 2 & 24 (1:42) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins pass to 21-T.Barber to NYG 26 for 10 yards (96-P.Grasmanis; 58-I.Reese). EPA +0.1WP 0%
1:14 NY 3 & 14 (1:14) (Shotgun) 5-K.Collins pass to 21-T.Barber to NYG 34 for 8 yards (94-N.Kalu). PENALTY on PHI-97-D.Walker, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 26 - No Play. EPA +0.4WP 0%
1:06 NY 1 & 10 (1:06) 5-K.Collins pass to 86-R.Dixon to PHI 41 for 28 yards (58-I.Reese). EPA +1.3WP 0%