From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(2:50) 7-C.Redman pass to 83-R.Johnson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by CAR and Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 02:43.)
6β0
Q1
2:43
BLT
3-M.Stover extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Maese, Holder-15-D.Zastudil.
7β0
Q1
0:42
CAR
(:42) 9-R.Peete pass to 85-W.Walls for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7β6
Q1
0:36
CAR
4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-56-J.Kyle, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun.
7β7
Q2
9:45
CAR
(9:45) 4-J.Kasay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Kyle, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun.
7β10
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. CAR closed at 100%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q4
1:27
BLT
(1:27) 7-C.Redman pass INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Morgan (90-J.Peppers) at BAL 39. 55-D.Morgan to BAL 17 for 22 yards (31-J.Lewis).
29% β 3%
-26%
-4.46
Q4
2:00
CAR
(2:00) 4-J.Kasay 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-56-J.Kyle, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun.
88% β 68%
-20%
-2.43
Q3
2:49
BLT
(2:49) 3-M.Stover 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-J.Maese, Holder-15-D.Zastudil.
39% β 26%
-13%
-3.44
Q4
12:19
BLT
(12:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Redman pass to 89-T.Taylor pushed ob at BAL 47 for 17 yards (23-R.Howard).
28% β 39%
+12%
+2.47
Q2
13:03
CAR
(13:03) 9-R.Peete pass to 85-W.Walls to BAL 34 for 18 yards (42-A.Mitchell).
51% β 62%
+11%
+2.66
Q2
7:45
BLT
(7:45) 7-C.Redman pass to 80-B.Stokley to CAR 43 for 15 yards (27-D.Grant; 58-M.Fields).
41% β 51%
+10%
+1.51
Q1
0:42
CAR
(:42) 9-R.Peete pass to 85-W.Walls for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
41% β 51%
+10%
+2.56
Q3
10:13
BLT
(10:13) 7-C.Redman pass to 80-B.Stokley to CAR 39 for 14 yards (25-E.McDaniel, 30-M.Minter).
37% β 47%
+10%
+1.95
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
13:09 CAR 4 & 7 (13:09) (Punt formation) 10-T.Sauerbrun punts 50 yards to BAL 27, Center-56-J.Kyle. 21-C.McAlister ran ob at BAL 33 for 6 yards (57-L.Towns). EPA +0.7WP 46%
12:59 BLT 1 & 10 (12:59) 31-J.Lewis right tackle to BAL 33 for no gain (55-D.Morgan). EPA -0.5WP 51%
12:09 BLT 4 & 15 (12:09) (Punt formation) 15-D.Zastudil punts 44 yards to CAR 28, Center-59-J.Maese. 89-S.Smith to CAR 38 for 10 yards (54-S.Taylor). EPA +0.0WP 42%
11:54 CAR 1 & 10 (11:54) 9-R.Peete pass to 89-S.Smith to CAR 47 for 9 yards (24-A.Porter). EPA +0.8WP 57%
11:15 CAR 2 & 1 (11:15) 37-N.Goings left end to CAR 45 for -2 yards (24-A.Porter, 56-E.Hartwell). EPA -1.2WP 59%
10:31 CAR 3 & 3 (10:31) 9-R.Peete pass to 86-K.Mangum to 50 for 5 yards (24-A.Porter; 42-A.Mitchell). EPA +1.2WP 55%
9:52 CAR 1 & 10 (9:52) 26-L.Smith right tackle to BAL 48 for 2 yards (52-R.Lewis; 56-E.Hartwell). EPA -0.4WP 58%
9:11 CAR 2 & 8 (9:11) 26-L.Smith up the middle to BAL 46 for 2 yards (97-K.Gregg). EPA -0.5WP 57%
8:30 CAR 3 & 6 (8:30) 9-R.Peete pass to 87-M.Muhammad to BAL 36 for 10 yards (21-C.McAlister). PENALTY on CAR-70-C.Terry, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 46 - No Play. EPA -0.7WP 54%
8:04 CAR 3 & 11 (8:04) 9-R.Peete pass to 37-N.Goings to CAR 46 for -3 yards (96-A.Thomas). EPA -1.5WP 52%
7:38 CAR 4 & 14 (7:38) (Punt formation) 10-T.Sauerbrun punts 34 yards to BAL 20, Center-56-J.Kyle, fair catch by 21-C.McAlister. EPA +0.3WP 48%
7:32 BLT 1 & 10 (7:32) 31-J.Lewis left tackle to BAL 19 for -1 yards (93-M.Rucker). EPA -0.8WP 48%
6:54 BLT 2 & 11 (6:54) 7-C.Redman pass to 86-T.Heap to BAL 21 for 2 yards (55-D.Morgan, 53-H.Navies). EPA -0.4WP 47%
6:11 BLT 3 & 9 (6:11) 7-C.Redman pass to 80-B.Stokley pushed ob at BAL 43 for 22 yards (23-R.Howard). EPA +2.7WP 45%
5:50 BLT 1 & 10 (5:50) 7-C.Redman pass to 86-T.Heap to BAL 47 for 4 yards (30-M.Minter). EPA +0.0WP 54%
5:15 BLT 2 & 6 (5:15) 7-C.Redman pass to 86-T.Heap to CAR 48 for 5 yards (55-D.Morgan). EPA +0.2WP 53%
4:41 BLT 3 & 1 (4:41) 31-J.Lewis right tackle to CAR 47 for 1 yard (96-A.Wallace). EPA +0.5WP 52%
4:07 BLT 1 & 10 (4:07) 7-C.Redman pass to 89-T.Taylor to CAR 11 for 36 yards (27-D.Grant). EPA +2.6WP 55%
3:25 BLT 1 & 10 (3:25) 31-J.Lewis up the middle to CAR 8 for 3 yards (93-M.Rucker). EPA -0.1WP 63%
2:50 BLT 2 & 7 (2:50) 7-C.Redman pass to 83-R.Johnson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by CAR and Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 02:43.) TDEPA +2.2WP 61%
2:43 BLT 3-M.Stover extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Maese, Holder-15-D.Zastudil. EPA +0.0WP 68%
2:43 CAR 6-J.Jenkins kicks 70 yards from BAL 30 to end zone, Touchback. EPA +0.0WP 32%
2:43 CAR 1 & 10 (2:43) 26-L.Smith right end pushed ob at CAR 23 for 3 yards (21-C.McAlister). EPA -0.3WP 32%
2:15 CAR 2 & 7 (2:15) 9-R.Peete pass incomplete to 87-M.Muhammad. PENALTY on BAL-56-E.Hartwell, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 23 - No Play. EPA +1.5WP 31%
2:09 CAR 1 & 10 (2:09) 9-R.Peete pass to 86-K.Mangum to CAR 47 for 9 yards (24-A.Porter). EPA +0.8WP 34%
1:28 CAR 2 & 1 (1:28) 9-R.Peete pass to 87-M.Muhammad to BAL 20 for 33 yards (21-C.McAlister). Flea flicker EPA +1.8WP 36%
0:42 CAR 1 & 10 (:42) 9-R.Peete pass to 85-W.Walls for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +2.6WP 41%
0:36 CAR 4-J.Kasay extra point is GOOD, Center-56-J.Kyle, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun. EPA +0.0WP 51%
0:36 BLT 10-T.Sauerbrun kicks 55 yards from CAR 30 to BAL 15. 84-J.Hunter to BAL 23 for 8 yards (52-B.Allen). EPA +0.1WP 48%
0:32 BLT 1 & 10 (:32) 7-C.Redman pass to 86-T.Heap to BAL 27 for 4 yards (23-R.Howard). EPA -0.0WP 49%
0:00 BLT END QUARTER 1 EPA +0.0WP 49%
Quarter 2
15:00 BLT 2 & 6 (15:00) 31-J.Lewis right guard to BAL 26 for -1 yards (77-K.Jenkins). EPA -0.8WP 49%
14:20 BLT 4 & 7 (14:20) 15-D.Zastudil punts 32 yards to CAR 42, Center-59-J.Maese. 89-S.Smith to BAL 49 for 9 yards (54-S.Taylor; 96-A.Thomas). EPA -0.8WP 42%
14:11 CAR 1 & 10 (14:11) 26-L.Smith up the middle to BAL 47 for 2 yards (97-K.Gregg). EPA -0.3WP 57%
13:33 CAR 2 & 8 (13:33) 9-R.Peete pass incomplete to 26-L.Smith. EPA -0.8WP 55%
13:28 CAR 3 & 8 (13:28) 9-R.Peete pass to 45-B.Hoover to BAL 36 for 11 yards (28-G.Baxter). PENALTY on CAR-70-C.Terry, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 47 - No Play. EPA -0.7WP 52%
13:03 CAR 3 & 13 (13:03) 9-R.Peete pass to 85-W.Walls to BAL 34 for 18 yards (42-A.Mitchell). EPA +2.7WP 51%
12:20 CAR 1 & 10 (12:20) 9-R.Peete pass to 87-M.Muhammad for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by BAL and REVERSED. 9-R.Peete pass incomplete to 87-M.Muhammad. EPA -0.4WP 62%
12:12 CAR 2 & 10 (12:12) 37-N.Goings up the middle to BAL 32 for 2 yards (52-R.Lewis). EPA -0.5WP 60%
11:30 CAR 3 & 8 (11:30) 37-N.Goings right tackle to BAL 12 for 20 yards (20-E.Reed, 42-A.Mitchell). EPA +2.4WP 57%
10:45 CAR 1 & 10 (10:45) 26-L.Smith right end to BAL 8 for 4 yards (98-A.Weaver). EPA -0.1WP 66%
9:57 CAR 3 & 6 (9:57) 37-N.Goings right end to BAL 9 for -1 yards (58-P.Boulware; 96-A.Thomas). Penalty on CAR-82-I.Byrd, Illegal Crackback, declined. EPA -1.2WP 65%
9:45 CAR 4 & 7 (9:45) 4-J.Kasay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Kyle, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun. EPA +0.2WP 59%
9:40 BLT 10-T.Sauerbrun kicks 65 yards from CAR 30 to BAL 5. 84-J.Hunter to BAL 24 for 19 yards (40-J.Cooper). EPA +0.1WP 39%
9:35 BLT 1 & 10 (9:35) 7-C.Redman pass to 80-B.Stokley pushed ob at BAL 36 for 12 yards (23-R.Howard). EPA +0.8WP 41%
9:06 BLT 1 & 10 (9:06) 31-J.Lewis left tackle to BAL 37 for 1 yard (27-D.Grant). EPA -0.4WP 44%
8:31 BLT 2 & 9 (8:31) 7-C.Redman pass to 31-J.Lewis to BAL 42 for 5 yards (58-M.Fields). EPA +0.1WP 42%
7:45 BLT 3 & 4 (7:45) 7-C.Redman pass to 80-B.Stokley to CAR 43 for 15 yards (27-D.Grant; 58-M.Fields). EPA +1.5WP 41%
7:02 BLT 1 & 10 (7:02) PENALTY on BAL-64-E.Mulitalo, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 43 - No Play. EPA -0.6WP 51%
6:46 BLT 1 & 15 (6:46) 31-J.Lewis right tackle to CAR 40 for 8 yards (30-M.Minter). EPA +0.5WP 47%
6:06 BLT 2 & 7 (6:06) 7-C.Redman pass to 31-J.Lewis to CAR 35 for 5 yards (23-R.Howard, 30-M.Minter). EPA +0.1WP 50%
5:19 BLT 4 & 2 (5:19) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Stover punts 33 yards to CAR 2, Center-59-J.Maese, downed by BAL-88-J.Jones. EPA -0.7WP 46%
5:07 CAR 1 & 10 (5:07) 9-R.Peete pass to 89-S.Smith pushed ob at CAR 14 for 12 yards (24-A.Porter). EPA +0.7WP 63%
4:45 CAR 1 & 10 (4:45) 26-L.Smith left tackle to CAR 22 for 8 yards (56-E.Hartwell). EPA +0.4WP 65%
4:03 CAR 2 & 2 (4:03) 9-R.Peete pass to 89-S.Smith pushed ob at CAR 37 for 15 yards (24-A.Porter). EPA +0.8WP 66%
3:37 CAR 1 & 10 (3:37) 26-L.Smith up the middle to CAR 43 for 6 yards (92-M.Kemoeatu). EPA +0.2WP 68%
2:55 CAR 2 & 4 (2:55) 26-L.Smith left tackle to CAR 45 for 2 yards (56-E.Hartwell). PENALTY on BAL-58-P.Boulware, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 43 - No Play. EPA +0.5WP 68%
2:34 CAR 1 & 10 (2:34) 45-B.Hoover up the middle to BAL 41 for 11 yards (52-R.Lewis, 42-A.Mitchell). EPA +0.6WP 70%
2:00 CAR 1 & 10 (2:00) 9-R.Peete pass incomplete to 87-M.Muhammad. EPA -0.4WP 70%
1:53 CAR 2 & 10 (1:53) 26-L.Smith left guard to BAL 35 for 6 yards (42-A.Mitchell). EPA +0.2WP 69%
1:11 CAR 3 & 4 (1:11) 9-R.Peete sacked at BAL 44 for -9 yards (sack split by 94-M.Douglas and 96-A.Thomas). EPA -2.0WP 68%
0:41 CAR 4 & 13 (:41) 10-T.Sauerbrun punts 33 yards to BAL 11, Center-56-J.Kyle. 21-C.McAlister pushed ob at BAL 15 for 4 yards (32-R.Smart). EPA -0.3WP 62%
0:32 BLT 1 & 10 (:32) 7-C.Redman kneels to BAL 14 for -1 yards. EPA +0.0WP 38%
0:00 END QUARTER 2 WP 36%
Quarter 3
15:00 BLT 10-T.Sauerbrun kicks 70 yards from CAR 30 to end zone, Touchback. EPA +0.0WP 36%
15:00 BLT 1 & 10 (15:00) 31-J.Lewis right guard to BAL 38 for 18 yards (27-D.Grant, 30-M.Minter). EPA +1.2WP 36%
14:19 BLT 2 & 10 (14:19) 7-C.Redman pass to 39-A.Ricard to BAL 44 for 6 yards (55-D.Morgan; 99-B.Buckner). PENALTY on BAL-62-M.Flynn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 38 - No Play. EPA -1.0WP 37%
14:00 BLT 2 & 20 (14:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Redman pass to 31-J.Lewis to BAL 44 for 16 yards (23-R.Howard). EPA +1.1WP 33%
9:16 BLT 4 & 10 (9:16) 15-D.Zastudil punts 20 yards to CAR 19, Center-59-J.Maese, fair catch by 89-S.Smith. EPA -0.3WP 37%
9:11 CAR 1 & 10 (9:11) 26-L.Smith left end pushed ob at CAR 31 for 12 yards (42-A.Mitchell). EPA +0.9WP 70%
8:43 CAR 1 & 10 (8:43) 26-L.Smith left end to CAR 44 for 13 yards (52-R.Lewis). EPA +0.8WP 71%
8:01 CAR 1 & 10 (8:01) 9-R.Peete pass to 26-L.Smith to BAL 47 for 9 yards (52-R.Lewis). PENALTY on CAR-70-C.Terry, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 44 - No Play. EPA -0.9WP 74%
7:41 CAR 1 & 20 (7:41) 45-B.Hoover up the middle to CAR 38 for 4 yards (96-A.Thomas). EPA -0.3WP 71%
7:01 CAR 2 & 16 (7:01) 9-R.Peete sacked at CAR 31 for -7 yards (58-P.Boulware). EPA -1.4WP 70%
6:30 CAR 3 & 23 (6:30) 45-B.Hoover left guard to CAR 37 for 6 yards (56-E.Hartwell). EPA -0.6WP 66%
5:56 CAR 4 & 17 (5:56) 10-T.Sauerbrun punts 41 yards to BAL 22, Center-56-J.Kyle. 21-C.McAlister to BAL 25 for 3 yards (32-R.Smart). EPA +0.3WP 66%
5:45 BLT 1 & 10 (5:45) 80-B.Stokley left end pushed ob at BAL 39 for 14 yards (21-T.Cousin). End Around EPA +0.8WP 36%
5:26 BLT 1 & 10 (5:26) 31-J.Lewis left tackle to CAR 46 for 15 yards (27-D.Grant). EPA +1.1WP 39%
4:49 BLT 1 & 10 (4:49) 7-C.Redman pass to 83-R.Johnson pushed ob at CAR 32 for 14 yards (23-R.Howard). EPA +1.1WP 44%
4:37 BLT 1 & 10 (4:37) 31-J.Lewis right guard to CAR 31 for 1 yard (93-M.Rucker, 90-J.Peppers). EPA -0.4WP 49%
3:59 BLT 2 & 9 (3:59) (Shotgun) 7-C.Redman pass to 31-J.Lewis to CAR 24 for 7 yards (55-D.Morgan). EPA +0.5WP 47%
3:19 BLT 3 & 2 (3:19) PENALTY on BAL-80-B.Stokley, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 24 - No Play. EPA -0.9WP 48%
11:06 BLT 4 & 5 (11:06) 15-D.Zastudil punts 30 yards to CAR 18, Center-59-J.Maese. 89-S.Smith to CAR 31 for 13 yards (49-C.Williams). EPA -1.0WP 31%
10:53 CAR 1 & 10 (10:53) 26-L.Smith left tackle to CAR 34 for 3 yards (52-R.Lewis). EPA -0.3WP 75%
10:15 CAR 2 & 7 (10:15) 26-L.Smith right end to CAR 36 for 2 yards (56-E.Hartwell; 42-A.Mitchell). EPA -0.4WP 76%
9:32 CAR 3 & 5 (9:32) 9-R.Peete pass to 87-M.Muhammad to CAR 40 for 4 yards (28-G.Baxter). EPA -0.6WP 76%
8:47 CAR 4 & 1 (8:47) 10-T.Sauerbrun punts 44 yards to BAL 16, Center-56-J.Kyle, fair catch by 21-C.McAlister. EPA -0.1WP 73%
8:40 BLT 1 & 10 (8:40) 31-J.Lewis right tackle to BAL 26 for 10 yards (21-T.Cousin, 30-M.Minter). EPA +0.7WP 32%
8:04 BLT 1 & 10 (8:04) 31-J.Lewis right tackle to BAL 25 for -1 yards (58-M.Fields). EPA -0.7WP 34%
7:30 BLT 2 & 11 (7:30) 7-C.Redman sacked at BAL 22 for -3 yards (99-B.Buckner). EPA -1.0WP 29%
6:59 BLT 3 & 14 (6:59) (Shotgun) 7-C.Redman sacked at BAL 19 for -3 yards (77-K.Jenkins). EPA -0.8WP 25%
6:41 BLT 4 & 17 (6:41) 15-D.Zastudil punts 47 yards to CAR 34, Center-59-J.Maese. 89-S.Smith MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at CAR 36. EPA +0.1WP 22%
6:34 CAR 1 & 10 (6:34) 26-L.Smith left tackle to CAR 42 for 6 yards (52-R.Lewis). EPA +0.1WP 81%
5:54 CAR 2 & 4 (5:54) 45-B.Hoover up the middle to CAR 44 for 2 yards (52-R.Lewis; 54-S.Taylor). EPA -0.3WP 80%
5:13 CAR 3 & 2 (5:13) 45-B.Hoover up the middle to 50 for 6 yards (94-M.Douglas). EPA +0.9WP 80%
4:33 CAR 1 & 10 (4:33) 9-R.Peete pass to 89-S.Smith pushed ob at BAL 48 for 2 yards (20-E.Reed, 24-A.Porter). EPA -0.4WP 83%
4:28 CAR 2 & 8 (4:28) 26-L.Smith left end to BAL 47 for 1 yard (52-R.Lewis). EPA -0.7WP 82%
3:40 Timeout #1 by CAR at 03:40. EPA +0.0WP 79%
3:40 CAR 3 & 7 (3:40) 87-M.Muhammad left end to BAL 30 for 17 yards (96-A.Thomas). Flanker reverse EPA +1.8WP 79%
2:51 CAR 1 & 10 (2:51) 26-L.Smith up the middle to BAL 26 for 4 yards (58-P.Boulware). EPA -0.1WP 85%
2:42 Timeout #1 by BAL at 02:42. EPA +0.0WP 86%
2:42 CAR 2 & 6 (2:42) 26-L.Smith left guard to BAL 25 for 1 yard (52-R.Lewis). EPA -0.4WP 86%
2:30 Timeout #2 by BAL at 02:30. EPA +0.0WP 86%
2:30 CAR 3 & 5 (2:30) 26-L.Smith left end to BAL 33 for -8 yards (28-G.Baxter). EPA -1.6WP 86%
2:00 CAR 4 & 13 (2:00) 4-J.Kasay 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-56-J.Kyle, Holder-10-T.Sauerbrun. EPA -2.4WP 88%
1:55 BLT 1 & 10 (1:55) 31-J.Lewis left tackle to BAL 42 for 1 yard (55-D.Morgan). EPA -0.3WP 32%
1:36 BLT 2 & 9 (1:36) 7-C.Redman pass to 86-T.Heap to BAL 47 for 5 yards (55-D.Morgan). EPA +0.1WP 27%
1:27 Timeout #3 by BAL at 01:27. EPA +0.0WP 29%
1:27 BLT 3 & 4 (1:27) 7-C.Redman pass INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Morgan (90-J.Peppers) at BAL 39. 55-D.Morgan to BAL 17 for 22 yards (31-J.Lewis). EPA -4.5WP 29%
1:19 CAR 1 & 10 (1:19) 9-R.Peete kneels to BAL 19 for -2 yards. EPA -0.8WP 97%
0:38 CAR 2 & 12 (:38) 9-R.Peete kneels to BAL 21 for -2 yards. EPA -2.5WP 98%