From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(14:02) 23-K.Carter left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Carter eludes tackle from H.Thomas in backfield to score.
6β0
Q2
13:57
WAS
5-B.Conway extra point is GOOD, Center-77-E.Albright, Holder-4-B.Barker.
7β0
Q2
0:12
WAS
(:12) 5-B.Conway 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-77-E.Albright, Holder-4-B.Barker.
10β0
Q3
4:15
PHI
(4:15) 2-D.Akers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer.
10β3
Q4
0:33
WAS
(:33) 5-B.Conway 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-77-E.Albright, Holder-4-B.Barker.
13β3
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. PHI closed at 0%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q1
4:07
WAS
(4:07) 5-B.Conway 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-77-E.Albright, Holder-4-B.Barker. Redskins' #48 Davis brought to locker room, sore back.
48% β 39%
-10%
-3.33
Q1
0:43
WAS
(:43) 23-K.Carter left end to PHI 30 for 13 yards (23-T.Vincent; 43-D.Moore).
46% β 54%
+8%
+1.77
Q4
9:30
PHI
(9:30) 28-C.Buckhalter left tackle to WAS 35 for no gain (56-L.Arrington).
19% β 11%
-7%
-2.82
Q3
4:15
PHI
(4:15) 5-D.McNabb pass incomplete to 89-C.Lewis.
25% β 18%
-7%
-2.24
Q1
7:37
WAS
(7:37) 12-T.Banks pass to 82-M.Westbrook to PHI 34 for 7 yards (23-T.Vincent).
46% β 53%
+7%
+1.32
Q3
4:15
PHI
(4:15) 2-D.Akers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer.
18% β 24%
+7%
+2.12
Q3
0:11
PHI
(:11) 5-D.McNabb scrambles up the middle to WAS 33 for 2 yards (99-M.Coleman).
29% β 23%
-6%
-1.23
Q1
12:52
WAS
(12:52) 48-S.Davis right tackle to PHI 48 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PHI 48. 48-S.Davis to PHI 48 for no gain (56-M.Caldwell).
46% β 40%
-6%
-2.52
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
Each play carries its expected points added, the offense's win probability before the snap and, where charted, formation, personnel and play tags.
Quarter 1
15:00 GAME EPA +0.0WP 42%
15:00 WAS 2-D.Akers kicks 78 yards from PHI 30 to WAS -8. 20-M.Bates, Touchback. EPA +0.0WP 42%
15:00 WAS 1 & 10 (15:00) 48-S.Davis right end to WAS 46 for 26 yards (78-H.Thomas). EPA +1.9WP 42%
14:09 WAS 1 & 10 (14:09) 48-S.Davis left tackle to PHI 48 for 6 yards (51-C.Emmons). EPA +0.3WP 46%
13:31 WAS 2 & 4 (13:31) 48-S.Davis up the middle to PHI 45 for 3 yards (90-C.Simon; 96-P.Grasmanis). EPA +0.0WP 47%
12:52 WAS 3 & 1 (12:52) 48-S.Davis right tackle to PHI 48 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PHI 48. 48-S.Davis to PHI 48 for no gain (56-M.Caldwell). EPA -2.5WP 46%
12:14 WAS 4 & 4 (12:14) 4-B.Barker punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-77-E.Albright, Touchback. EPA -0.1WP 40%
12:06 PHI 1 & 10 (12:06) 22-D.Staley left tackle to PHI 20 for no gain (50-R.Jones). EPA -0.5WP 61%
11:33 PHI 2 & 10 (11:33) 5-D.McNabb pass to 87-T.Pinkston to PHI 28 for 8 yards (21-F.Smoot). EPA +0.4WP 60%
10:54 PHI 4 & 2 (10:54) 7-S.Landeta punts 45 yards to WAS 27, Center-88-M.Bartrum. 34-E.Metcalf to WAS 27 for no gain (82-D.Douglas). EPA +0.5WP 56%
10:45 WAS 1 & 10 (10:45) 12-T.Banks pass incomplete to 47-B.Johnson (56-M.Caldwell). EPA -0.5WP 43%
10:41 WAS 2 & 10 (10:41) 48-S.Davis left guard pushed ob at WAS 40 for 13 yards (21-B.Taylor). EPA +1.3WP 42%
10:06 WAS 1 & 10 (10:06) 12-T.Banks pass incomplete to 87-R.Gardner (23-T.Vincent). EPA -0.4WP 45%
10:00 WAS 2 & 10 (10:00) 12-T.Banks scrambles up the middle to WAS 44 for 4 yards (59-D.Burgess). EPA -0.3WP 44%
9:16 WAS 3 & 6 (9:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Banks pass to 87-R.Gardner pushed ob at PHI 47 for 9 yards (20-B.Dawkins). EPA +1.8WP 43%
8:50 WAS 1 & 10 (8:50) 48-S.Davis right guard to PHI 45 for 2 yards (56-M.Caldwell; 96-P.Grasmanis). EPA -0.3WP 48%
8:12 WAS 2 & 8 (8:12) 48-S.Davis up the middle to PHI 41 for 4 yards (54-J.Trotter; 51-C.Emmons). EPA -0.1WP 46%
7:37 WAS 3 & 4 (7:37) 12-T.Banks pass to 82-M.Westbrook to PHI 34 for 7 yards (23-T.Vincent). EPA +1.3WP 46%
6:56 WAS 1 & 10 (6:56) 12-T.Banks pass to 23-K.Carter pushed ob at PHI 29 for 5 yards (51-C.Emmons). EPA +0.3WP 53%
6:56 WAS 2 & 5 (6:56) PENALTY on PHI-96-P.Grasmanis, Encroachment, 4 yards, enforced at PHI 29 - No Play. EPA +0.5WP 54%
6:08 WAS 2 & 1 (6:08) 23-K.Carter left tackle to PHI 22 for 3 yards (54-J.Trotter). EPA +0.1WP 56%
5:30 WAS 1 & 10 (5:30) 23-K.Carter up the middle to PHI 16 for 6 yards (51-C.Emmons). EPA +0.3WP 57%
4:51 WAS 2 & 4 (4:51) 23-K.Carter left end to PHI 19 for -3 yards (96-P.Grasmanis). EPA -1.1WP 56%
4:07 WAS 3 & 7 (4:07) 12-T.Banks pass incomplete to 87-R.Gardner (23-T.Vincent). Pressured by #20 Dawkins on a safety blitz EPA -0.9WP 53%
4:07 WAS 4 & 7 (4:07) 5-B.Conway 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-77-E.Albright, Holder-4-B.Barker. Redskins' #48 Davis brought to locker room, sore back. EPA -3.3WP 48%
3:59 PHI 1 & 10 (3:59) 5-D.McNabb pass to 22-D.Staley to PHI 29 for 2 yards (90-K.Lang). Eagles #90 Simon, mild right knee sprain, return is questionable. EPA -0.2WP 61%
3:12 PHI 2 & 8 (3:12) 22-D.Staley left guard to PHI 35 for 6 yards (29-S.Shade). EPA +0.1WP 60%
2:34 PHI 3 & 2 (2:34) 22-D.Staley right end to PHI 35 for no gain (31-D.Terrell). PENALTY on PHI-84-F.Mitchell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 35 - No Play. EPA -1.3WP 61%
2:10 PHI 4 & 12 (2:10) 7-S.Landeta punts 46 yards to WAS 29, Center-88-M.Bartrum. 34-E.Metcalf to WAS 41 for 12 yards (42-R.Cook). EPA +0.1WP 54%
1:58 WAS 1 & 10 (1:58) 12-T.Banks pass incomplete to 87-R.Gardner (20-B.Dawkins). PENALTY on PHI-20-B.Dawkins, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at WAS 41 - No Play. EPA +0.6WP 46%
1:53 WAS 1 & 10 (1:53) 12-T.Banks scrambles right end to PHI 49 for 2 yards (56-M.Caldwell). EPA -0.3WP 49%
1:10 WAS 2 & 8 (1:10) 23-K.Carter right guard to PHI 43 for 6 yards (20-B.Dawkins). EPA +0.1WP 47%
0:43 WAS 3 & 2 (:43) 23-K.Carter left end to PHI 30 for 13 yards (23-T.Vincent; 43-D.Moore). EPA +1.8WP 46%
0:00 WAS END QUARTER 1 EPA +0.0WP 54%
Quarter 2
15:00 WAS 1 & 10 (15:00) 12-T.Banks pass to 89-Z.Flemister pushed ob at PHI 7 for 23 yards (20-B.Dawkins). EPA +1.6WP 54%
14:39 WAS 1 & 7 (14:39) 23-K.Carter up the middle to PHI 5 for 2 yards (43-D.Moore; 90-C.Simon). EPA -0.1WP 59%
14:02 WAS 2 & 5 (14:02) 23-K.Carter left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Carter eludes tackle from H.Thomas in backfield to score. TDEPA +2.1WP 59%
13:57 WAS 5-B.Conway extra point is GOOD, Center-77-E.Albright, Holder-4-B.Barker. EPA +0.0WP 62%
13:57 PHI 5-B.Conway kicks 78 yards from WAS 30 to PHI -8. 30-B.Mitchell, Touchback. EPA -0.0WP 37%
13:51 PHI 1 & 10 (13:51) 22-D.Staley left end pushed ob at PHI 27 for 7 yards (56-L.Arrington). EPA +0.4WP 37%
1:40 PHI 3 & 17 (1:40) 5-D.McNabb pass to 22-D.Staley to PHI 15 for 5 yards (56-L.Arrington). EPA -0.2WP 28%
1:31 Timeout #1 by WAS at 01:31. EPA +0.0WP 27%
1:31 PHI 4 & 12 (1:31) 7-S.Landeta punts 60 yards to WAS 25, Center-88-M.Bartrum. 34-E.Metcalf to PHI 45 for 30 yards (82-D.Douglas). EPA -1.2WP 27%
1:17 WAS 1 & 10 (1:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Banks pass to 23-K.Carter to PHI 41 for 4 yards (94-N.Kalu). EPA -0.1WP 76%
0:54 WAS 2 & 6 (:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Banks scrambles right end pushed ob at PHI 39 for 2 yards (20-B.Dawkins). EPA -0.2WP 76%
0:46 WAS 3 & 4 (:46) (Shotgun) 23-K.Carter left end to PHI 39 for no gain (21-B.Taylor). PENALTY on PHI-53-H.Douglas, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 39 - No Play. EPA +0.7WP 76%
0:42 WAS 1 & 10 (:42) (Shotgun) 23-K.Carter up the middle to PHI 31 for 3 yards (56-M.Caldwell). EPA -0.2WP 78%
0:24 WAS 2 & 7 (:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Banks sacked at PHI 36 for -5 yards (90-C.Simon). EPA -0.9WP 78%
0:20 Timeout #2 by WAS at 00:20. EPA +0.0WP 74%
0:20 WAS 3 & 12 (:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Banks pass to 87-R.Gardner pushed ob at PHI 25 for 11 yards (31-A.Harris). EPA +0.6WP 74%
0:12 Timeout #3 by WAS at 00:12. EPA +0.0WP 78%
0:12 WAS 4 & 1 (:12) 5-B.Conway 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-77-E.Albright, Holder-4-B.Barker. EPA +1.0WP 78%
0:08 PHI 5-B.Conway kicks 64 yards from WAS 30 to PHI 6. 80-J.Thrash to PHI 22 for 16 yards (31-D.Terrell). EPA +0.0WP 24%
0:00 END QUARTER 2 WP 22%
Quarter 3
15:00 PHI 5-B.Conway kicks 69 yards from WAS 30 to PHI 1. 30-B.Mitchell to PHI 21 for 20 yards (26-I.Ohalete). EPA +0.0WP 22%
14:51 PHI 1 & 10 (14:51) 5-D.McNabb pass to 22-D.Staley pushed ob at PHI 29 for 8 yards (29-S.Shade). EPA +0.8WP 22%
14:30 PHI 2 & 2 (14:30) 22-D.Staley up the middle to PHI 30 for 1 yard (99-M.Coleman). EPA -0.4WP 25%
13:49 PHI 3 & 1 (13:49) PENALTY on WAS-31-D.Terrell, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 30 - No Play. EPA +0.5WP 23%
13:38 PHI 1 & 10 (13:38) 5-D.McNabb scrambles left end ran ob at PHI 39 for 4 yards (56-L.Arrington). EPA +0.1WP 24%
13:15 PHI 2 & 6 (13:15) 22-D.Staley right end to PHI 42 for 3 yards (56-L.Arrington). EPA -0.7WP 23%
12:25 PHI 4 & 3 (12:25) 7-S.Landeta punts 37 yards to WAS 21, Center-88-M.Bartrum, out of bounds. EPA +0.2WP 19%
12:19 WAS 1 & 10 (12:19) 12-T.Banks pass to 87-R.Gardner to WAS 21 for no gain (43-D.Moore). EPA -0.6WP 83%
11:32 Timeout #1 by WAS at 11:32. EPA +0.0WP 82%
11:32 WAS 2 & 10 (11:32) 12-T.Banks pass to 89-Z.Flemister to WAS 31 for 10 yards (51-C.Emmons). EPA +1.1WP 82%
10:52 WAS 1 & 10 (10:52) 48-S.Davis up the middle to WAS 37 for 6 yards (43-D.Moore). EPA +0.3WP 84%
10:11 WAS 2 & 4 (10:11) 48-S.Davis left tackle to WAS 38 for 1 yard (59-D.Burgess). EPA -0.7WP 86%
10:11 WAS 3 & 3 (10:11) PENALTY on WAS-87-R.Gardner, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 38 - No Play. EPA -0.6WP 85%
9:09 WAS 3 & 8 (9:09) PENALTY on WAS-62-B.Coleman, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 33 - No Play. EPA -0.7WP 82%
8:50 WAS 3 & 13 (8:50) 23-K.Carter up the middle to WAS 40 for 12 yards (56-M.Caldwell). EPA +0.4WP 80%
8:13 WAS 4 & 1 (8:13) 4-B.Barker punts 44 yards to PHI 16, Center-77-E.Albright. 30-B.Mitchell to PHI 27 for 11 yards (29-S.Shade). EPA -0.4WP 83%
8:04 PHI 1 & 10 (8:04) 22-D.Staley right tackle to PHI 28 for 1 yard (58-A.Pierce). EPA -0.5WP 21%
7:23 PHI 2 & 9 (7:23) 5-D.McNabb pass to 22-D.Staley to PHI 35 for 7 yards (90-K.Lang). EPA +0.2WP 19%
6:40 PHI 3 & 2 (6:40) 22-D.Staley right end pushed ob at PHI 42 for 7 yards (28-D.Green; 56-L.Arrington). EPA +1.2WP 21%
6:17 PHI 1 & 10 (6:17) 22-D.Staley right tackle to PHI 45 for 3 yards (56-L.Arrington). EPA -0.2WP 23%
5:54 PHI 2 & 7 (5:54) 28-C.Buckhalter left end to PHI 45 for no gain (78-B.Smith). PENALTY on WAS-56-L.Arrington, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 45. EPA +1.4WP 23%
5:38 PHI 1 & 10 (5:38) 5-D.McNabb pass to 22-D.Staley to WAS 33 for 7 yards (56-L.Arrington). EPA +0.3WP 25%
5:00 PHI 2 & 3 (5:00) 22-D.Staley right tackle to WAS 31 for 2 yards (50-R.Jones). EPA -0.3WP 29%
4:15 PHI 4 & 1 (4:15) 2-D.Akers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer. EPA +2.1WP 18%
4:05 WAS 2-D.Akers kicks 69 yards from PHI 30 to WAS 1. 20-M.Bates to WAS 22 for 21 yards (28-C.Buckhalter). EPA +0.0WP 76%
3:56 WAS 1 & 10 (3:56) 12-T.Banks pass incomplete to 48-S.Davis. EPA -0.5WP 77%
3:47 WAS 2 & 10 (3:47) 48-S.Davis left tackle to WAS 23 for 1 yard (78-H.Thomas). EPA -0.6WP 75%
3:04 WAS 3 & 9 (3:04) 23-K.Carter left tackle to WAS 21 for -2 yards (90-C.Simon). EPA -1.1WP 73%
2:25 WAS 4 & 11 (2:25) 4-B.Barker punts 39 yards to PHI 40, Center-77-E.Albright, downed by WAS-89-Z.Flemister. PENALTY on WAS-20-M.Bates, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at WAS 21 - No Play. EPA -0.7WP 68%
2:13 WAS 4 & 22 (2:13) 4-B.Barker punts 42 yards to PHI 48, Center-77-E.Albright. 30-B.Mitchell to PHI 47 for -1 yards (20-M.Bates). FUMBLES (20-M.Bates), and recovers at PHI 47. 30-B.Mitchell to PHI 47 for no gain (20-M.Bates). EPA +0.4WP 66%
2:04 PHI 1 & 10 (2:04) 5-D.McNabb pass to 80-J.Thrash to WAS 40 for 13 yards (24-C.Bailey). EPA +0.7WP 30%
1:29 PHI 1 & 10 (1:29) 22-D.Staley right tackle to WAS 35 for 5 yards (29-S.Shade). EPA +0.0WP 31%
0:49 PHI 2 & 5 (:49) 22-D.Staley right tackle to WAS 35 for no gain (58-A.Pierce). EPA -0.6WP 31%
0:11 Timeout #2 by WAS at 00:11. EPA +0.0WP 29%
0:11 PHI 3 & 5 (:11) 5-D.McNabb scrambles up the middle to WAS 33 for 2 yards (99-M.Coleman). EPA -1.2WP 29%