From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
7-B.Gramatica kicks 64 yards from ARI 30 to PHI 6. 30-B.Mitchell for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Gramatica injured arm on play.
6β0
Q1
14:43
PHI
2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer.
7β0
Q2
2:50
PHI
(2:50) 5-D.McNabb pass to 80-J.Thrash for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13β0
Q2
2:44
PHI
2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer.
14β0
Q2
1:09
ARZ
(1:09) 16-J.Plummer pass to 83-T.Mitchell for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14β6
Q2
1:05
ARZ
7-B.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-86-T.Junkin, Holder-10-S.Player.
14β7
Q2
0:41
PHI
(:41) 5-D.McNabb pass to 80-J.Thrash for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20β7
Q2
0:33
PHI
2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer.
21β7
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. ARZ closed at 0%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q1
15:00
PHI
7-B.Gramatica kicks 64 yards from ARI 30 to PHI 6. 30-B.Mitchell for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Gramatica injured arm on play.
42% β 67%
+25%
+7.15
Q2
0:41
PHI
(:41) 5-D.McNabb pass to 80-J.Thrash for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
75% β 83%
+9%
+5.95
Q2
2:00
ARZ
(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Plummer pass to 89-D.Boston pushed ob at PHI 2 for 52 yards (43-D.Moore).
19% β 28%
+8%
+4.00
Q1
4:01
ARZ
(4:01) 16-J.Plummer pass to 81-F.Sanders to ARI 45 for 16 yards (31-A.Harris).
35% β 42%
+7%
+2.46
Q2
12:25
PHI
(12:25) 5-D.McNabb pass to 89-C.Lewis to PHI 37 for 33 yards (59-R.Fredrickson).
63% β 70%
+6%
+1.99
Q1
5:27
ARZ
(5:27) 16-J.Plummer sacked at ARI 29 for -9 yards (53-H.Douglas).
41% β 35%
-6%
-1.91
Q1
1:37
ARZ
(1:37) 32-M.Pittman left tackle to PHI 46 for no gain (43-D.Moore).
41% β 36%
-5%
-1.62
Q2
0:50
PHI
(:50) 5-D.McNabb pass to 80-J.Thrash to PHI 46 for 15 yards (36-D.Barrett).
70% β 75%
+5%
+0.71
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
Each play carries its expected points added, the offense's win probability before the snap and, where charted, formation, personnel and play tags.
Quarter 1
15:00 GAME EPA +0.0WP 42%
15:00 PHI 7-B.Gramatica kicks 64 yards from ARI 30 to PHI 6. 30-B.Mitchell for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Gramatica injured arm on play. TDEPA +7.1WP 42%
14:43 PHI 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer. EPA +0.0WP 67%
14:43 ARZ 2-D.Akers kicks 69 yards from PHI 30 to ARI 1. 82-M.Jenkins to ARI 3 for 2 yards (45-T.Hauck). EPA -1.1WP 32%
14:43 ARZ 1 & 10 (14:43) 32-M.Pittman right tackle to ARI 2 for -1 yards (51-C.Emmons). EPA -0.8WP 31%
14:00 ARZ 2 & 11 (14:00) 32-M.Pittman up the middle to ARI 2 for no gain (53-H.Douglas, 90-C.Simon). EPA -0.6WP 35%
13:30 ARZ 3 & 11 (13:30) 32-M.Pittman left tackle to ARI 4 for 2 yards (98-B.Whiting, 54-J.Trotter). EPA -0.7WP 34%
12:52 ARZ 4 & 9 (12:52) 10-S.Player punts 51 yards to PHI 45, Center-86-T.Junkin. 30-B.Mitchell to ARI 44 for 11 yards (41-J.Lucas). EPA +0.1WP 32%
12:40 PHI 1 & 10 (12:40) 22-D.Staley right end to ARI 41 for 3 yards (42-K.Lassiter, 57-R.McKinnon). EPA -0.1WP 67%
11:52 PHI 2 & 7 (11:52) 5-D.McNabb pass to 85-N.Brown pushed ob at ARI 32 for 9 yards (22-A.Wilson). PENALTY on PHI-69-J.Runyan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 41 - No Play. EPA -1.2WP 65%
11:43 PHI 2 & 17 (11:43) 22-D.Staley left end to PHI 49 for no gain (41-J.Lucas, 92-B.Tanner). EPA -0.9WP 63%
11:01 PHI 3 & 17 (11:01) 5-D.McNabb pass to 89-C.Lewis to ARI 33 for 18 yards (45-R.Hill, 22-A.Wilson). PENALTY on PHI, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 49 - No Play. EPA -0.3WP 61%
10:30 PHI 3 & 22 (10:30) 5-D.McNabb pass to 89-C.Lewis to ARI 45 for 11 yards (45-R.Hill, 59-R.Fredrickson). EPA -0.6WP 61%
10:00 PHI 4 & 11 (10:00) 7-S.Landeta punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Touchback. EPA -0.0WP 64%
6:59 PHI 3 & 8 (6:59) PENALTY on PHI, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 33 - No Play. EPA -1.2WP 69%
6:54 PHI 3 & 13 (6:54) 5-D.McNabb sacked at ARI 43 for -5 yards (sack split by 45-R.Hill and 94-M.Bell). EPA -1.8WP 67%
6:54 PHI 4 & 18 (6:54) 7-S.Landeta punts 25 yards to ARI 18, Center-88-M.Bartrum. 42-K.Lassiter to ARI 19 for 1 yard (34-J.Reader, 42-R.Cook). EPA +0.2WP 64%
6:27 ARZ 1 & 10 (6:27) 32-M.Pittman right guard to ARI 20 for 1 yard (53-H.Douglas). EPA -0.4WP 38%
5:56 ARZ 2 & 9 (5:56) 16-J.Plummer pass to 89-D.Boston to ARI 32 for 12 yards (23-T.Vincent). EPA +1.4WP 37%
5:56 ARZ 1 & 10 (5:56) 32-M.Pittman up the middle to ARI 38 for 6 yards (78-H.Thomas). EPA +0.2WP 40%
5:27 ARZ 2 & 4 (5:27) 16-J.Plummer sacked at ARI 29 for -9 yards (53-H.Douglas). EPA -1.9WP 41%
4:01 ARZ 3 & 13 (4:01) 16-J.Plummer pass to 81-F.Sanders to ARI 45 for 16 yards (31-A.Harris). EPA +2.5WP 35%
3:21 ARZ 1 & 10 (3:21) 16-J.Plummer pass to 32-M.Pittman to ARI 45 for no gain (56-M.Caldwell). EPA -0.4WP 42%
2:38 ARZ 2 & 10 (2:38) 32-M.Pittman right guard to ARI 45 for no gain (54-J.Trotter). PENALTY on PHI-96-P.Grasmanis, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 45 - No Play. EPA +0.5WP 40%
2:15 ARZ 2 & 5 (2:15) 32-M.Pittman left guard to PHI 46 for 4 yards (43-D.Moore, 96-P.Grasmanis). EPA +0.0WP 41%
1:37 ARZ 3 & 1 (1:37) 32-M.Pittman left tackle to PHI 46 for no gain (43-D.Moore). EPA -1.6WP 41%
0:57 ARZ 4 & 1 (:57) 10-S.Player punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-86-T.Junkin, Touchback. EPA -0.8WP 36%
0:45 PHI 1 & 10 (:45) 22-D.Staley left tackle to PHI 24 for 4 yards (94-M.Bell). EPA -0.2WP 65%
10:38 PHI 2 & 25 (10:38) 5-D.McNabb pass to 83-J.Thomason to PHI 44 for 9 yards (45-R.Hill). EPA -0.2WP 66%
10:04 PHI 3 & 16 (10:04) 5-D.McNabb scrambles up the middle to ARI 49 for 7 yards (54-S.Sanyika). EPA -0.5WP 66%
9:29 PHI 4 & 9 (9:29) 7-S.Landeta punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Touchback. EPA -0.1WP 65%
9:18 ARZ 1 & 10 (9:18) 26-T.Jones left guard to ARI 25 for 5 yards (56-M.Caldwell, 51-C.Emmons). EPA +0.1WP 36%
8:34 ARZ 2 & 5 (8:34) 26-T.Jones left end to ARI 25 for no gain (56-M.Caldwell). FUMBLES (56-M.Caldwell), and recovers at ARI 29. 26-T.Jones to ARI 29 for no gain (56-M.Caldwell). EPA +0.2WP 36%
8:04 ARZ 3 & 1 (8:04) 82-M.Jenkins right end to ARI 31 for 2 yards (54-J.Trotter, 51-C.Emmons). PENALTY on ARI-83-T.Mitchell, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at ARI 29 - No Play. EPA -1.2WP 36%
7:34 ARZ 3 & 10 (7:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Plummer pass to 83-T.Mitchell to ARI 16 for -4 yards (43-D.Moore). EPA -1.4WP 33%
7:01 ARZ 4 & 14 (7:01) 7-B.Gramatica punts 41 yards to PHI 43, Center-86-T.Junkin. 30-B.Mitchell to ARI 35 for 22 yards (51-J.Rutledge). EPA -1.2WP 29%
6:48 PHI 1 & 10 (6:48) 5-D.McNabb pass to 28-C.Buckhalter to ARI 36 for -1 yards (55-R.Thompson). EPA -0.8WP 75%
6:16 Timeout #1 by PHI at 06:16. EPA +0.0WP 73%
6:16 PHI 2 & 11 (6:16) 5-D.McNabb scrambles right tackle to ARI 29 for 7 yards (98-R.Davis). EPA +0.4WP 73%
5:25 PHI 3 & 4 (5:25) 28-C.Buckhalter right end to ARI 20 for 9 yards (45-R.Hill). EPA +1.2WP 75%
4:48 PHI 1 & 10 (4:48) 5-D.McNabb pass to 38-C.Martin to ARI 14 for 6 yards (42-K.Lassiter, 57-R.McKinnon). EPA +0.5WP 79%
4:11 PHI 2 & 4 (4:11) 22-D.Staley left tackle to ARI 10 for 4 yards (59-R.Fredrickson, 92-B.Tanner). EPA +0.2WP 79%
3:30 PHI 1 & 10 (3:30) 28-C.Buckhalter left tackle to ARI 8 for 2 yards (97-F.Wakefield). EPA -0.4WP 82%
2:50 PHI 2 & 8 (2:50) 5-D.McNabb pass to 80-J.Thrash for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +2.9WP 81%
2:44 PHI 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-88-M.Bartrum, Holder-10-K.Detmer. EPA +0.0WP 83%
2:44 ARZ 2-D.Akers kicks 70 yards from PHI 30 to end zone, Touchback. EPA -0.0WP 16%
2:37 ARZ 1 & 10 (2:37) 16-J.Plummer pass to 83-T.Mitchell to ARI 36 for 16 yards (20-B.Dawkins). EPA +0.7WP 16%
2:07 ARZ 1 & 10 (2:07) 16-J.Plummer pass to 81-F.Sanders to ARI 46 for 10 yards (23-T.Vincent). Penalty on PHI-31-A.Harris, Illegal Contact, declined. EPA +0.4WP 18%
2:00 ARZ 1 & 10 (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Plummer pass to 89-D.Boston pushed ob at PHI 2 for 52 yards (43-D.Moore). EPA +4.0WP 19%
1:49 ARZ 1 & 2 (1:49) 32-M.Pittman up the middle to PHI 2 for no gain (98-B.Whiting, 96-P.Grasmanis). EPA -0.5WP 28%
1:09 ARZ 2 & 2 (1:09) 16-J.Plummer pass to 83-T.Mitchell for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +1.7WP 27%
1:05 ARZ 7-B.Gramatica extra point is GOOD, Center-86-T.Junkin, Holder-10-S.Player. EPA +0.0WP 28%
1:05 PHI 7-B.Gramatica kicks 63 yards from ARI 30 to PHI 7. 30-B.Mitchell to PHI 31 for 24 yards (45-R.Hill, 56-L.Woods). EPA +0.3WP 70%
0:02 PHI 1 & 10 (:02) 5-D.McNabb pass intended for 87-T.Pinkston INTERCEPTED by 42-K.Lassiter at ARI 7. 42-K.Lassiter to ARI 7 for no gain (87-T.Pinkston). EPA +0.0WP 89%
0:00 END QUARTER 2 WP 14%
Quarter 3
15:00 ARZ 2-D.Akers kicks 73 yards from PHI 30 to ARI -3. 82-M.Jenkins to ARI 19 for 22 yards (34-J.Reader). EPA -0.1WP 14%
14:51 ARZ 1 & 10 (14:51) 32-M.Pittman left tackle to ARI 24 for 5 yards (53-H.Douglas). EPA +0.0WP 13%
14:15 ARZ 2 & 5 (14:15) 16-J.Plummer pass to 32-M.Pittman to ARI 31 for 7 yards (51-C.Emmons). EPA +0.9WP 12%
13:41 ARZ 1 & 10 (13:41) 32-M.Pittman right guard to ARI 35 for 4 yards (54-J.Trotter). EPA -0.1WP 14%
13:04 ARZ 2 & 6 (13:04) 32-M.Pittman left end to ARI 40 for 5 yards (84-F.Mitchell, 54-J.Trotter). EPA +0.3WP 13%
12:23 ARZ 3 & 1 (12:23) 26-T.Jones left tackle to ARI 43 for 3 yards (78-H.Thomas). EPA +0.6WP 14%
4:05 ARZ 2 & 10 (4:05) 16-J.Plummer sacked at ARI 25 for -5 yards (53-H.Douglas). EPA -1.3WP 9%
3:37 ARZ 3 & 15 (3:37) 16-J.Plummer pass to 32-M.Pittman to ARI 30 for 5 yards (58-I.Reese). EPA -0.5WP 7%
3:03 ARZ 4 & 10 (3:03) 10-S.Player punts 45 yards to PHI 25, Center-86-T.Junkin. 30-B.Mitchell to PHI 36 for 11 yards (86-T.Junkin, 39-D.McKinley). EPA -0.0WP 7%
2:50 PHI 1 & 10 (2:50) 22-D.Staley left end to PHI 45 for 9 yards (55-R.Thompson). PENALTY on PHI-72-Tr.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 36 - No Play. EPA -0.9WP 95%
2:24 PHI 1 & 20 (2:24) 5-D.McNabb pass to 89-C.Lewis to PHI 35 for 9 yards (57-R.McKinnon, 55-R.Thompson). EPA +0.1WP 95%
10:02 ARZ 4 & 10 (10:02) (Shotgun) 16-J.Plummer pass to 89-D.Boston to PHI 24 for 9 yards (23-T.Vincent). EPA -1.2WP 5%
9:54 PHI 1 & 10 (9:54) 5-D.McNabb pass to 89-C.Lewis to PHI 28 for 4 yards (55-R.Thompson). EPA -0.1WP 98%
9:17 PHI 2 & 6 (9:17) 22-D.Staley right end to PHI 32 for 4 yards (55-R.Thompson, 57-R.McKinnon). EPA +0.0WP 98%
8:38 PHI 3 & 2 (8:38) 22-D.Staley left end to 50 for 18 yards (94-M.Bell, 42-K.Lassiter). EPA +1.8WP 98%
7:48 PHI 1 & 10 (7:48) 22-D.Staley left end to 50 for no gain (57-R.McKinnon, 95-T.Burke). PENALTY on PHI-63-H.Fraley, Personal Foul, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play. EPA -1.3WP 99%
4:15 ARZ 2 & 10 (4:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Plummer pass to 89-D.Boston to PHI 25 for 15 yards. EPA +1.2WP 4%
4:07 ARZ 1 & 10 (4:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Plummer pass to 81-F.Sanders to PHI 5 for 20 yards (20-B.Dawkins, 21-B.Taylor). EPA +1.8WP 5%
3:41 ARZ 1 & 5 (3:41) 32-M.Pittman right end to PHI 3 for 2 yards (23-T.Vincent, 58-I.Reese). EPA -0.0WP 6%
3:11 ARZ 2 & 3 (3:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Plummer pass incomplete to 89-D.Boston. PENALTY on PHI-31-A.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, 2 yards, enforced at PHI 3 - No Play. EPA +0.8WP 6%
3:06 ARZ 1 & 1 (3:06) 32-M.Pittman up the middle to PHI 1 for no gain (52-B.Gardner). FUMBLES (52-B.Gardner), RECOVERED by PHI-59-D.Burgess at PHI 0. Touchback. Play Challenged by ARI and Upheld. (Timeout #2 at 02:55.) EPA -6.4WP 5%
2:55 PHI 1 & 10 (2:55) 22-D.Staley right end pushed ob at PHI 29 for 9 yards. EPA +0.3WP 100%
2:47 PHI 2 & 1 (2:47) 22-D.Staley left tackle to PHI 32 for 3 yards (97-F.Wakefield). EPA +0.1WP 100%
2:40 Timeout #3 by ARI at 02:40. EPA +0.0WP 100%
2:40 PHI 1 & 10 (2:40) 22-D.Staley left end to PHI 30 for -2 yards (59-R.Fredrickson). EPA -0.5WP 100%
2:00 PHI 2 & 12 (2:00) 22-D.Staley up the middle to PHI 32 for 2 yards (42-K.Lassiter, 57-R.McKinnon). EPA -0.1WP 100%
1:20 PHI 3 & 10 (1:20) 22-D.Staley right end to PHI 33 for 1 yard (57-R.McKinnon). EPA -0.2WP 100%
0:36 PHI 4 & 9 (:36) 7-S.Landeta punts 55 yards to ARI 12, Center-88-M.Bartrum. 84-A.Jackson to ARI 23 for 11 yards (45-T.Hauck, 88-M.Bartrum). EPA +0.1WP 100%
0:24 ARZ 1 & 10 (:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Plummer pass intended for 89-D.Boston INTERCEPTED by 43-D.Moore at PHI 37. 43-D.Moore to PHI 39 for 2 yards. EPA -0.2WP 0%
0:16 PHI 1 & 10 (:16) 5-D.McNabb up the middle to PHI 38 for -1 yards. McNabb dropped to one knee. EPA -0.2WP 100%