From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(8:43) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
3β0
Q1
5:41
IND
(5:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
6β0
Q2
15:00
BLT
(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Stover 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-70-M.Katula, Holder-4-S.Koch.
6β3
Q2
3:20
IND
(3:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith. Ball hits crossbar and goes over.
9β3
Q3
10:57
IND
(10:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
12β3
Q4
14:30
BLT
(14:30) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Stover 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-70-M.Katula, Holder-4-S.Koch.
12β6
Q4
0:26
IND
(:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
15β6
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. BLT closed at 0%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q2
9:21
BLT
(9:21) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass short middle intended for 86-T.Heap INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Bethea at IND 1. 41-A.Bethea to IND 1 for no gain (38-M.Anderson).
56% β 40%
-16%
-3.05
Q1
7:21
BLT
(7:21) 9-S.McNair pass short right to 86-T.Heap to BAL 29 for 3 yards (25-N.Harper). Play Challenged by IND and REVERSED. 9-S.McNair pass short right to 86-T.Heap to BAL 29 for 3 yards (25-N.Harper). FUMBLES (25-N.Harper), RECOVERED by IND-58-G.Brackett at BAL 31.
43% β 30%
-13%
-4.77
Q4
11:53
BLT
(11:53) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass deep middle to 89-M.Clayton to IND 40 for 21 yards (21-B.Sanders).
21% β 29%
+9%
+2.33
Q1
10:57
IND
(10:57) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne to BAL 24 for 19 yards (22-S.Rolle).
55% β 62%
+7%
+1.51
Q1
2:20
IND
(2:20) (Punt formation) 17-H.Smith punts 39 yards to BAL 40, Center-48-J.Snow. 40-C.Ross to IND 42 for 18 yards (36-De.Reid).
68% β 61%
-7%
-0.98
Q4
14:30
BLT
(14:30) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Stover 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-70-M.Katula, Holder-4-S.Koch.
14% β 21%
+6%
+1.97
Q4
10:25
BLT
(10:25) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass deep right intended for 87-D.Williams INTERCEPTED by 25-N.Harper at IND 23. 25-N.Harper to IND 32 for 9 yards (86-T.Heap).
22% β 16%
-6%
-3.34
Q2
1:05
IND
(1:05) (Punt formation) 17-H.Smith punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-48-J.Snow, Touchback.
76% β 70%
-6%
-0.65
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
Each play carries its expected points added, the offense's win probability before the snap and, where charted, formation, personnel and play tags.
Quarter 1
15:00 GAME EPA +0.0WP 54%
15:00 BLT 4-A.Vinatieri kicks 68 yards from IND 30 to BAL 2. 40-C.Ross to BAL 29 for 27 yards (43-M.Giordano). EPA +0.8WP 54%
14:53 BLT 1 & 10 (14:53) 31-J.Lewis up the middle to BAL 30 for 1 yard (98-R.Mathis, 94-R.Morris). EPA -0.5WP 55%
14:14 BLT 2 & 9 (14:14) 31-J.Lewis up the middle to BAL 32 for 2 yards (94-R.Morris, 79-R.Brock). EPA -0.5WP 53%
14:14 BLT 3 & 7 (14:14) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass short middle to 89-M.Clayton to BAL 37 for 5 yards (21-B.Sanders). EPA -0.8WP 52%
13:00 BLT 4 & 2 (13:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to IND 25, Center-70-M.Katula. 10-T.Wilkins to IND 46 for 21 yards (26-D.Landry). EPA -1.8WP 52%
12:47 IND 1 & 10 (12:47) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai right guard to BAL 47 for 7 yards (57-B.Scott). EPA +0.4WP 53%
12:18 IND 2 & 3 (12:18) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai right guard to BAL 45 for 2 yards (96-A.Thomas). EPA -0.2WP 55%
11:35 IND 3 & 1 (11:35) 29-J.Addai left guard to BAL 43 for 2 yards (97-K.Gregg, 26-D.Landry). EPA +0.4WP 52%
10:57 IND 1 & 10 (10:57) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne to BAL 24 for 19 yards (22-S.Rolle). EPA +1.5WP 55%
10:36 IND 1 & 10 (10:36) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai left guard to BAL 22 for 2 yards (52-R.Lewis, 97-K.Gregg). EPA -0.3WP 62%
9:58 IND 2 & 8 (9:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Harrison. EPA -0.5WP 60%
9:53 IND 3 & 8 (9:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne ran ob at BAL 12 for 10 yards. EPA +1.5WP 58%
9:44 IND 1 & 10 (9:44) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai left tackle to BAL 10 for 2 yards (97-K.Gregg, 90-T.Pryce). EPA -0.4WP 62%
9:44 IND 2 & 8 (9:44) (No Huddle) PENALTY on BAL-90-T.Pryce, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 10 - No Play. EPA +0.9WP 61%
8:48 IND 2 & 3 (8:48) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai left guard to BAL 5 for no gain (92-H.Ngata). EPA -0.9WP 63%
8:43 IND 3 & 3 (8:43) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai right tackle to BAL 5 for no gain (55-T.Suggs). EPA -1.4WP 61%
8:43 IND 4 & 3 (8:43) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith. EPA +0.1WP 59%
8:04 BLT 4-A.Vinatieri kicks 68 yards from IND 30 to BAL 2. 40-C.Ross to BAL 20 for 18 yards (95-Da.Reid). EPA +0.0WP 43%
7:59 BLT 1 & 10 (7:59) 9-S.McNair scrambles up the middle to BAL 26 for 6 yards (79-R.Brock, 28-M.Jackson). EPA +0.3WP 43%
7:21 BLT 2 & 4 (7:21) 9-S.McNair pass short right to 86-T.Heap to BAL 29 for 3 yards (25-N.Harper). Play Challenged by IND and REVERSED. 9-S.McNair pass short right to 86-T.Heap to BAL 29 for 3 yards (25-N.Harper). FUMBLES (25-N.Harper), RECOVERED by IND-58-G.Brackett at BAL 31. EPA -4.8WP 43%
7:14 IND 1 & 10 (7:14) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne to BAL 24 for 7 yards (57-B.Scott). EPA +0.5WP 70%
7:14 IND 2 & 3 (7:14) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai left end to BAL 24 for no gain (55-T.Suggs). FUMBLES (55-T.Suggs), recovered by IND-86-B.Utecht at BAL 24. 86-B.Utecht to BAL 24 for no gain (96-A.Thomas). EPA -0.5WP 70%
6:22 IND 3 & 3 (6:22) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne to BAL 23 for 1 yard (52-R.Lewis, 22-S.Rolle). EPA -1.3WP 68%
5:41 IND 4 & 2 (5:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith. EPA +0.8WP 65%
5:36 BLT 4-A.Vinatieri kicks 65 yards from IND 30 to BAL 5. 40-C.Ross to BAL 26 for 21 yards (98-R.Mathis). EPA +0.5WP 34%
5:29 BLT 1 & 10 (5:29) 9-S.McNair pass deep right to 89-M.Clayton to BAL 45 for 19 yards (25-N.Harper) [98-R.Mathis]. EPA +1.2WP 34%
4:47 BLT 1 & 10 (4:47) 31-J.Lewis up the middle to BAL 48 for 3 yards (92-A.McFarland, 21-B.Sanders). EPA -0.2WP 37%
4:12 BLT 2 & 7 (4:12) 31-J.Lewis left guard to BAL 50 for 2 yards (94-R.Morris). EPA -0.6WP 36%
3:33 BLT 3 & 5 (3:33) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass short right to 89-M.Clayton to IND 47 for 3 yards (28-M.Jackson). EPA -1.2WP 34%
2:49 BLT 4 & 2 (2:49) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-70-M.Katula, Touchback. EPA -0.7WP 32%
2:49 IND 1 & 10 (2:49) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to 44-D.Clark. EPA -0.5WP 72%
2:44 IND 2 & 10 (2:44) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai up the middle to IND 21 for 1 yard (57-B.Scott). EPA -0.7WP 71%
2:25 IND 3 & 9 (2:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 87-R.Wayne. EPA -1.2WP 70%
2:20 IND 4 & 9 (2:20) (Punt formation) 17-H.Smith punts 39 yards to BAL 40, Center-48-J.Snow. 40-C.Ross to IND 42 for 18 yards (36-De.Reid). EPA -1.0WP 68%
2:11 BLT 1 & 10 (2:11) 9-S.McNair pass short left to 31-J.Lewis to IND 34 for 8 yards (94-R.Morris). EPA +0.4WP 39%
1:37 BLT 2 & 2 (1:37) 31-J.Lewis right guard to IND 32 for 2 yards (21-B.Sanders, 92-A.McFarland). PENALTY on IND-79-R.Brock, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at IND 34 - No Play. EPA +0.4WP 41%
1:09 BLT 1 & 10 (1:09) 9-S.McNair pass incomplete deep left to 86-T.Heap. EPA -0.4WP 42%
1:02 BLT 2 & 10 (1:02) 31-J.Lewis up the middle to IND 25 for 4 yards (58-G.Brackett, 21-B.Sanders). EPA -0.3WP 40%
0:23 BLT 3 & 6 (:23) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass short middle to 86-T.Heap to IND 23 for 2 yards (79-R.Brock, 28-M.Jackson). EPA -1.2WP 39%
14:56 IND 3-M.Stover kicks 59 yards from BAL 30 to IND 11. 10-T.Wilkins to IND 29 for 18 yards (58-D.Haley). EPA +0.6WP 62%
14:45 IND 1 & 10 (14:45) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short right to 44-D.Clark. EPA -0.5WP 63%
14:45 IND 2 & 10 (14:45) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai right end to IND 29 for no gain (92-H.Ngata, 52-R.Lewis). EPA -0.7WP 62%
14:13 IND 3 & 10 (14:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle intended for 44-D.Clark INTERCEPTED by 20-E.Reed at BAL 45. 20-E.Reed to BAL 45 for no gain (44-D.Clark). EPA -2.0WP 59%
14:09 BLT 1 & 10 (14:09) 31-J.Lewis left tackle to IND 46 for 9 yards (41-A.Bethea). EPA +0.7WP 47%
13:28 BLT 2 & 1 (13:28) 34-O.Mughelli left guard to IND 43 for 3 yards (98-R.Mathis, 92-A.McFarland). EPA -0.1WP 50%
12:45 BLT 1 & 10 (12:45) 31-J.Lewis left tackle to IND 25 for 18 yards (41-A.Bethea). EPA +1.2WP 51%
12:08 BLT 1 & 10 (12:08) 38-M.Anderson up the middle to IND 22 for 3 yards (94-R.Morris, 41-A.Bethea). EPA -0.1WP 55%
11:26 BLT 2 & 7 (11:26) 9-S.McNair pass short right to 83-D.Wilcox to IND 7 for 15 yards (41-A.Bethea, 58-G.Brackett). EPA +1.3WP 55%
10:41 BLT 1 & 7 (10:41) 31-J.Lewis up the middle to IND 3 for 4 yards (59-C.June). EPA +0.2WP 58%
10:07 BLT 2 & 3 (10:07) 31-J.Lewis up the middle to IND 4 for -1 yards. EPA -1.2WP 60%
9:21 Timeout #1 by BAL at 09:21. EPA +0.0WP 56%
9:21 BLT 3 & 4 (9:21) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass short middle intended for 86-T.Heap INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Bethea at IND 1. 41-A.Bethea to IND 1 for no gain (38-M.Anderson). EPA -3.1WP 56%
9:15 IND 1 & 10 (9:15) 33-D.Rhodes up the middle to IND 2 for 1 yard (96-A.Thomas, 55-T.Suggs). EPA -0.2WP 60%
8:44 IND 2 & 9 (8:44) (No Huddle) 33-D.Rhodes left guard to IND 4 for 2 yards (97-K.Gregg, 52-R.Lewis). BAL-90-T.Pryce was injured during the play. His return is Probable. EPA -0.1WP 58%
8:44 IND 3 & 7 (8:44) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-95-J.Johnson, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at IND 4 - No Play. EPA +0.9WP 56%
7:59 IND 3 & 2 (7:59) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 88-M.Harrison to IND 16 for 7 yards (21-C.McAlister). EPA +1.0WP 58%
7:23 IND 1 & 10 (7:23) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning scrambles ran ob at IND 23 for 7 yards (52-R.Lewis). EPA +0.3WP 62%
6:57 IND 2 & 3 (6:57) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai right guard to IND 27 for 4 yards (57-B.Scott, 52-R.Lewis). EPA +0.2WP 63%
6:16 IND 1 & 10 (6:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 88-M.Harrison (21-C.McAlister) [57-B.Scott]. EPA -0.5WP 64%
6:10 IND 2 & 10 (6:10) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai left tackle to IND 31 for 4 yards (96-A.Thomas, 52-R.Lewis). EPA -0.1WP 62%
5:26 IND 3 & 6 (5:26) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 88-M.Harrison to IND 41 for 10 yards (21-C.McAlister). EPA +1.4WP 62%
5:10 IND 1 & 10 (5:10) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-M.Harrison ran ob at BAL 38 for 21 yards. BAL-57-B.Scott was injured during the play. His return is Probable. EPA +1.5WP 66%
4:41 IND 1 & 10 (4:41) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 29-J.Addai to BAL 36 for 2 yards (52-R.Lewis). EPA -0.6WP 71%
4:07 IND 2 & 8 (4:07) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai left guard to BAL 34 for 2 yards (97-K.Gregg, 92-H.Ngata). EPA -0.3WP 70%
3:27 IND 3 & 6 (3:27) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 44-D.Clark. EPA -1.2WP 68%
3:20 IND 4 & 6 (3:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith. Ball hits crossbar and goes over. EPA +1.9WP 64%
3:15 BLT 4-A.Vinatieri kicks 65 yards from IND 30 to BAL 5. 40-C.Ross to BAL 22 for 17 yards (95-Da.Reid). EPA +0.0WP 31%
3:09 BLT 1 & 10 (3:09) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass short left to 34-O.Mughelli to BAL 24 for 2 yards (25-N.Harper). EPA -0.2WP 31%
2:27 BLT 2 & 8 (2:27) 9-S.McNair pass short right to 31-J.Lewis to BAL 27 for 3 yards (58-G.Brackett, 25-N.Harper). EPA -0.1WP 29%
2:00 BLT 3 & 5 (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass incomplete short middle to 86-T.Heap (21-B.Sanders). EPA -1.0WP 28%
1:56 BLT 4 & 5 (1:56) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to IND 35, Center-70-M.Katula. 10-T.Wilkins to IND 45 for 10 yards (70-M.Katula). EPA -0.9WP 24%
1:44 IND 1 & 10 (1:44) 29-J.Addai right tackle to IND 49 for 4 yards (95-J.Johnson, 96-A.Thomas). EPA +0.0WP 80%
1:19 IND 2 & 6 (1:19) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short left to 44-D.Clark. EPA -0.4WP 80%
1:12 IND 3 & 6 (1:12) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 85-A.Moorehead. EPA -1.0WP 78%
1:05 IND 4 & 6 (1:05) (Punt formation) 17-H.Smith punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-48-J.Snow, Touchback. EPA -0.6WP 76%
0:55 BLT 1 & 10 (:55) 38-M.Anderson left tackle to BAL 28 for 8 yards (28-M.Jackson, 59-C.June). EPA -0.2WP 30%
0:25 BLT 2 & 2 (:25) (No Huddle) 38-M.Anderson right end to BAL 32 for 4 yards (94-R.Morris, 59-C.June). EPA -0.2WP 31%
0:00 END QUARTER 2 WP 73%
Quarter 3
15:00 IND 3-M.Stover kicks 66 yards from BAL 30 to IND 4. 10-T.Wilkins to IND 4 for no gain. FUMBLES, and recovers at IND 4. 10-T.Wilkins to IND 17 for 13 yards (25-E.Oglesby). EPA -0.2WP 73%
14:53 IND 1 & 10 (14:53) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 29-J.Addai to IND 25 for 8 yards (57-B.Scott). EPA +0.7WP 73%
14:11 IND 2 & 2 (14:11) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai left tackle to IND 26 for 1 yard (96-A.Thomas). EPA -0.3WP 74%
13:42 IND 3 & 1 (13:42) 29-J.Addai up the middle to IND 28 for 2 yards (97-K.Gregg). EPA +0.4WP 73%
13:03 IND 1 & 10 (13:03) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 29-J.Addai to IND 40 for 12 yards (57-B.Scott). EPA +0.8WP 74%
12:31 IND 1 & 10 (12:31) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 44-D.Clark to BAL 33 for 27 yards (20-E.Reed). EPA +2.1WP 78%
11:51 IND 1 & 10 (11:51) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai left guard to BAL 29 for 4 yards (90-T.Pryce). EPA -0.0WP 81%
11:13 IND 2 & 6 (11:13) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short right to 44-D.Clark [55-T.Suggs]. EPA -0.7WP 81%
11:08 Timeout #1 by IND at 11:08. EPA +0.0WP 79%
11:08 IND 3 & 6 (11:08) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 87-R.Wayne. EPA -1.0WP 79%
10:57 IND 4 & 6 (10:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith. EPA +1.2WP 76%
10:57 BLT 4-A.Vinatieri kicks 57 yards from IND 30 to BAL 13. 40-C.Ross to BAL 34 for 21 yards (98-R.Mathis). EPA +1.0WP 23%
10:52 BLT 1 & 10 (10:52) 9-S.McNair pass incomplete short left to 89-M.Clayton (42-J.David). EPA -0.5WP 25%
10:48 BLT 2 & 10 (10:48) 9-S.McNair pass deep left to 89-M.Clayton ran ob at IND 47 for 19 yards (21-B.Sanders). EPA +1.7WP 23%
10:23 BLT 1 & 10 (10:23) 9-S.McNair pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Mason. EPA -0.5WP 27%
10:19 BLT 2 & 10 (10:19) 9-S.McNair pass short right to 34-O.Mughelli to IND 43 for 4 yards (25-N.Harper, 59-C.June). PENALTY on BAL-60-J.Brown, Illegal Use of Hands, 9 yards, enforced at IND 47 - No Play. EPA -0.9WP 25%
9:50 BLT 2 & 19 (9:50) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass short middle to 85-D.Mason to IND 47 for 9 yards (21-B.Sanders, 28-M.Jackson). EPA +0.1WP 24%
9:06 BLT 3 & 10 (9:06) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass short left to 89-M.Clayton to IND 41 for 6 yards (59-C.June). EPA -0.8WP 23%
8:37 Timeout #2 by IND at 08:37. EPA +0.0WP 19%
8:37 BLT 4 & 4 (8:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 30 yards to IND 11, Center-70-M.Katula, fair catch by 10-T.Wilkins. EPA -0.3WP 19%
8:30 IND 1 & 10 (8:30) 33-D.Rhodes right tackle to IND 36 for 25 yards (26-D.Landry). EPA +1.8WP 81%
7:44 IND 1 & 10 (7:44) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne to IND 50 for 14 yards (22-S.Rolle). EPA +1.0WP 86%
7:04 IND 1 & 10 (7:04) (No Huddle) 33-D.Rhodes right tackle to IND 49 for -1 yards (52-R.Lewis). EPA -0.5WP 86%
6:22 IND 2 & 11 (6:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 88-M.Harrison to BAL 44 for 7 yards (35-C.Ivy). FUMBLES (35-C.Ivy), ball out of bounds at BAL 44. Play Challenged by BAL and Upheld. (Timeout #1 by BAL.) EPA +0.2WP 84%
5:56 IND 3 & 4 (5:56) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short right to 87-R.Wayne (52-R.Lewis). EPA -1.8WP 85%
5:52 IND 4 & 4 (5:52) (Punt formation) 17-H.Smith punts 39 yards to BAL 5, Center-48-J.Snow, downed by IND-94-R.Morris. EPA +0.1WP 82%
5:43 BLT 1 & 10 (5:43) 9-S.McNair sacked at BAL 5 for 0 yards (91-J.Thomas). EPA -0.6WP 19%
5:11 BLT 2 & 10 (5:11) 9-S.McNair pass short left to 34-O.Mughelli to BAL 14 for 9 yards (41-A.Bethea). EPA +0.7WP 18%
4:27 BLT 3 & 1 (4:27) 34-O.Mughelli up the middle to BAL 17 for 3 yards (28-M.Jackson). EPA +0.7WP 18%
3:44 BLT 1 & 10 (3:44) 9-S.McNair pass deep left to 89-M.Clayton to IND 35 for 48 yards (41-A.Bethea). FUMBLES (41-A.Bethea), RECOVERED by IND-42-J.David at IND 35. 42-J.David to IND 45 for 10 yards. Lateral to 21-B.Sanders ran ob at BAL 25 for 30 yards (86-T.Heap). PENALTY on IND-42-J.David, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 17 - No Play. EPA +0.2WP 19%
3:18 BLT 1 & 10 (3:18) 31-J.Lewis left guard to BAL 30 for 8 yards (58-G.Brackett, 94-R.Morris). EPA +0.7WP 17%
2:41 BLT 2 & 2 (2:41) 38-M.Anderson up the middle to BAL 33 for 3 yards (21-B.Sanders). EPA +0.1WP 19%
2:03 BLT 1 & 10 (2:03) 9-S.McNair pass deep middle to 86-T.Heap to IND 44 for 23 yards (21-B.Sanders). EPA +1.4WP 20%
1:15 Timeout #2 by BAL at 01:15. EPA +0.0WP 21%
1:15 BLT 1 & 10 (1:15) 9-S.McNair pass short right to 31-J.Lewis to IND 31 for 13 yards (94-R.Morris, 79-R.Brock). EPA +0.7WP 21%
1:15 BLT 1 & 10 (1:15) PENALTY on BAL-88-Q.Sypniewski, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at IND 31 - No Play. EPA -0.6WP 23%
0:06 BLT 1 & 15 (:06) 31-J.Lewis up the middle to IND 36 for no gain (59-C.June, 94-R.Morris). EPA -0.4WP 22%
0:00 BLT END QUARTER 3 EPA +0.0WP 20%
Quarter 4
15:00 BLT 2 & 15 (15:00) 9-S.McNair pass short middle to 83-D.Wilcox to IND 31 for 5 yards (59-C.June). PENALTY on BAL-75-J.Ogden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 36 - No Play. EPA -0.8WP 20%
14:30 BLT 2 & 25 (14:30) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass short middle to 85-D.Mason to IND 39 for 7 yards (58-G.Brackett, 59-C.June). EPA -0.3WP 18%
14:30 BLT 3 & 18 (14:30) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass short left to 38-M.Anderson to IND 33 for 6 yards (21-B.Sanders). EPA -0.7WP 17%
13:03 IND 3-M.Stover kicks 68 yards from BAL 30 to IND 2. 10-T.Wilkins MUFFS catch, and recovers at IND 2. 10-T.Wilkins to IND 19 for 17 yards (42-G.Sapp). EPA -0.2WP 79%
12:57 IND 1 & 10 (12:57) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 29-J.Addai pushed ob at IND 22 for 3 yards (21-C.McAlister). PENALTY on IND-78-T.Glenn, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at IND 19 - No Play. EPA -1.1WP 79%
12:41 IND 1 & 19 (12:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 44-D.Clark [95-J.Johnson]. EPA -0.5WP 78%
12:10 IND 2 & 19 (12:10) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai up the middle to IND 12 for 2 yards (55-T.Suggs). EPA -0.5WP 76%
12:06 IND 3 & 17 (12:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right intended for 88-M.Harrison INTERCEPTED by 20-E.Reed at BAL 39. 20-E.Reed pushed ob at BAL 39 for no gain (88-M.Harrison). Reed's momentum carried him out at the 39 EPA -0.4WP 74%
12:03 BLT 1 & 10 (12:03) 9-S.McNair pass incomplete short left to 89-M.Clayton [93-D.Freeney]. EPA -0.4WP 26%
11:58 BLT 2 & 10 (11:58) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass incomplete short left to 38-M.Anderson [79-R.Brock]. EPA -0.7WP 23%
11:53 BLT 3 & 10 (11:53) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass deep middle to 89-M.Clayton to IND 40 for 21 yards (21-B.Sanders). EPA +2.3WP 21%
11:13 BLT 1 & 10 (11:13) (No Huddle) 31-J.Lewis right end to IND 39 for 1 yard (94-R.Morris, 59-C.June). EPA -0.5WP 29%
10:31 BLT 2 & 9 (10:31) 9-S.McNair pass incomplete deep right to 86-T.Heap. EPA -0.7WP 25%
10:25 BLT 3 & 9 (10:25) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass deep right intended for 87-D.Williams INTERCEPTED by 25-N.Harper at IND 23. 25-N.Harper to IND 32 for 9 yards (86-T.Heap). EPA -3.3WP 22%
10:18 IND 1 & 10 (10:18) 18-P.Manning sacked at IND 23 for -9 yards (sack split by 96-A.Thomas and 97-K.Gregg). EPA -1.3WP 84%
9:37 IND 2 & 19 (9:37) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short right to 88-M.Harrison (20-E.Reed). EPA -0.7WP 81%
9:32 IND 3 & 19 (9:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 86-B.Utecht to IND 34 for 11 yards (52-R.Lewis). EPA -0.2WP 79%
8:52 IND 4 & 8 (8:52) (Punt formation) 17-H.Smith punts 51 yards to BAL 15, Center-48-J.Snow. 40-C.Ross to BAL 27 for 12 yards (53-K.O'Neil). EPA -0.3WP 80%
8:43 BLT 1 & 10 (8:43) 31-J.Lewis right tackle to BAL 29 for 2 yards (21-B.Sanders, 59-C.June). EPA -0.3WP 21%
7:57 BLT 2 & 8 (7:57) 9-S.McNair pass incomplete short middle to 83-D.Wilcox [94-R.Morris]. EPA -0.6WP 20%
7:53 BLT 3 & 8 (7:53) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair pass incomplete short right to 31-J.Lewis. EPA -1.2WP 18%
7:47 BLT 4 & 8 (7:47) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to IND 34, Center-70-M.Katula. 10-T.Wilkins to IND 36 for 2 yards (50-T.Johnson). EPA -0.8WP 13%
7:39 IND 1 & 10 (7:39) (No Huddle) 33-D.Rhodes left guard to IND 39 for 3 yards (55-T.Suggs, 52-R.Lewis). EPA -0.3WP 89%
6:55 IND 2 & 7 (6:55) (No Huddle) 33-D.Rhodes left guard to IND 44 for 5 yards (97-K.Gregg, 57-B.Scott). EPA +0.1WP 88%
6:55 IND 3 & 2 (6:55) 33-D.Rhodes left guard to IND 50 for 6 yards (52-R.Lewis, 55-T.Suggs). EPA +0.9WP 89%
5:26 IND 1 & 10 (5:26) 33-D.Rhodes left guard to IND 47 for -3 yards (55-T.Suggs). EPA -1.1WP 90%
4:43 IND 2 & 13 (4:43) 33-D.Rhodes left guard to BAL 45 for 8 yards (96-A.Thomas, 90-T.Pryce). EPA +0.3WP 88%
3:57 Timeout #3 by IND at 03:57. EPA +0.0WP 89%
3:57 IND 3 & 5 (3:57) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark to BAL 31 for 14 yards (35-C.Ivy). EPA +1.7WP 89%
3:57 IND 1 & 10 (3:57) (No Huddle) 33-D.Rhodes right guard to BAL 31 for no gain (35-C.Ivy). PENALTY on BAL, Defensive 12 On-field, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 31 - No Play. EPA +0.3WP 93%
3:29 IND 1 & 5 (3:29) 33-D.Rhodes right tackle to BAL 24 for 2 yards (97-K.Gregg). EPA -0.4WP 93%
2:47 IND 2 & 3 (2:47) 33-D.Rhodes left guard to BAL 25 for -1 yards (52-R.Lewis, 90-T.Pryce). EPA -0.5WP 94%
2:18 IND 3 & 4 (2:18) 33-D.Rhodes right tackle to BAL 20 for 5 yards (52-R.Lewis). EPA +1.0WP 96%
1:58 IND 1 & 10 (1:58) 33-D.Rhodes left end to BAL 16 for 4 yards (52-R.Lewis). EPA -0.8WP 98%
1:50 Timeout #3 by BAL at 01:50. EPA +0.0WP 98%
1:46 IND 2 & 6 (1:46) 33-D.Rhodes left tackle to BAL 16 for no gain (95-J.Johnson, 91-A.Franklin). EPA -0.5WP 98%
1:07 IND 3 & 6 (1:07) 18-P.Manning kneels to BAL 17 for -1 yards. EPA +0.3WP 99%
0:26 IND 4 & 7 (:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith. EPA +0.4WP 99%
0:23 BLT 4-A.Vinatieri kicks 57 yards from IND 30 to BAL 13. 40-C.Ross to BAL 33 for 20 yards (56-T.Hagler). EPA +0.1WP 1%
0:18 BLT 1 & 10 (:18) (Shotgun) 9-S.McNair sacked at BAL 21 for -12 yards (98-R.Mathis). FUMBLES (98-R.Mathis), RECOVERED by IND-98-R.Mathis at BAL 21. 98-R.Mathis to BAL 21 for no gain (9-S.McNair). EPA -2.0WP 1%
0:08 IND 1 & 10 (:08) 18-P.Manning kneels to BAL 22 for -1 yards. EPA -1.9WP 100%