From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(9:19) R.Longwell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Davis, Holder-M.Hasselbeck.
0β3
Q1
4:41
CHI
(4:41) (Shotgun) G.Milburn left tackle for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6β3
Q1
2:16
CHI
C.Boniol extra point is GOOD, Center-P.Mannelly, Holder-T.Sauerbrun.
7β3
Q2
0:35
GNB
(:35) B.Favre pass to T.Davis for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7β9
Q2
0:30
GNB
R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Davis, Holder-M.Hasselbeck.
7β10
Q3
2:48
CHI
(2:48) J.Miller pass to B.Engram for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13β10
Q3
0:29
CHI
C.Boniol extra point is GOOD, Center-P.Mannelly, Holder-T.Sauerbrun.
14β10
Q4
15:00
GNB
(15:00) R.Longwell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Davis, Holder-M.Hasselbeck.
14β13
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. GNB closed at 0%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q4
0:07
GNB
(:07) R.Longwell 28 yard field goal is BLOCKED (B.Robinson), Center-R.Davis, Holder-M.Hasselbeck, RECOVERED by CHI at CHI 10.
69% β 0%
-69%
-2.73
Q1
15:00
CHI
R.Longwell kicks 65 yards from GB 30 to CHI 5. G.Milburn to CHI 37 for 32 yards (T.McBride).
0% β 45%
+45%
+1.05
Q3
11:02
CHI
(11:02) C.Enis right tackle to GB 10 for 2 yards (K.McKenzie). FUMBLES (K.McKenzie), RECOVERED by GB-K.McKenzie at GB 10.
52% β 30%
-23%
-4.42
Q1
4:41
CHI
(4:41) (Shotgun) G.Milburn left tackle for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
34% β 54%
+20%
+6.25
Q4
10:58
CHI
(10:58) C.Boniol 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-P.Mannelly, Holder-T.Sauerbrun.
63% β 47%
-15%
-3.02
Q2
13:05
GNB
(13:05) B.Favre pass intended for T.Davis INTERCEPTED by C.Hudson at CHI 0. Touchback.
58% β 43%
-15%
-4.31
Q2
13:49
CHI
(13:49) J.Miller pass intended for M.Robinson INTERCEPTED by M.McKenzie at CHI 27. M.McKenzie to CHI 27 for no gain (M.Robinson).
56% β 42%
-14%
-3.28
Q3
2:48
CHI
(2:48) J.Miller pass to M.Robinson pushed ob at GB 22 for 33 yards (T.Williams).
40% β 54%
+14%
+2.42
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
Each play carries its expected points added, the offense's win probability before the snap and, where charted, formation, personnel and play tags.
Quarter 1
15:00 CHI R.Longwell kicks 65 yards from GB 30 to CHI 5. G.Milburn to CHI 37 for 32 yards (T.McBride). EPA +1.0WP 0%
15:00 CHI 1 & 10 (15:00) C.Enis to CHI 36 for -1 yards (L.Butler, S.Dotson). EPA -0.8WP 45%
15:00 CHI 2 & 11 (15:00) C.McNown pass to G.Milburn to CHI 41 for 5 yards (J.Waddy, A.Davis). FUMBLES (J.Waddy), recovered by CHI-C.Villarrial at CHI 41. EPA -0.1WP 43%
15:00 CHI 3 & 6 (15:00) C.McNown pass to M.Brooks to GB 49 for 10 yards (L.Butler, T.Williams). EPA +1.9WP 42%
15:00 CHI 1 & 10 (15:00) C.Enis to GB 49 for no gain (G.Brown; B.Harris). EPA -0.5WP 48%
15:00 CHI 2 & 10 (15:00) (Shotgun) C.McNown pass incomplete to B.Engram. EPA -0.9WP 46%
15:00 CHI 3 & 10 (15:00) (Shotgun) C.McNown pass incomplete to C.Enis. EPA -1.6WP 43%
15:00 CHI 4 & 10 (15:00) T.Sauerbrun punts 24 yards to GB 25, Center-P.Mannelly, downed by CHI-B.Minter. EPA +0.0WP 39%
12:14 GNB 1 & 10 (12:14) B.Favre pass to T.Davis to GB 31 for 5 yards (W.Harris). Yard marker change due to change of possession. EPA +0.1WP 61%
12:14 GNB 2 & 5 (12:14) D.Levens to GB 28 for -3 yards (B.Minter). EPA -1.1WP 61%
12:14 GNB 3 & 8 (12:14) B.Favre sacked at GB 28 for 0 yards (W.Harris). EPA -1.3WP 58%
12:14 GNB 4 & 8 (12:14) L.Aguiar punts 37 yards to CHI 35, Center-R.Davis, fair catch by G.Milburn. K.Burns injured on play. EPA +0.3WP 55%
10:38 CHI 1 & 10 (10:38) C.McNown pass incomplete to B.Engram. EPA -0.5WP 45%
10:38 CHI 2 & 10 (10:38) E.Bennett left end to CHI 36 for 1 yard (B.Harris). EPA -0.6WP 43%
10:38 CHI 3 & 9 (10:38) C.McNown Aborted. O.Kreutz FUMBLES at CHI 36, recovered by CHI-C.McNown at CHI 19. EPA -2.5WP 40%
10:38 CHI 4 & 26 (10:38) T.Sauerbrun punts 44 yards to GB 37, Center-P.Mannelly. D.Howard to GB 43 for 6 yards (J.Allred). EPA +0.4WP 34%
9:19 GNB 1 & 10 (9:19) B.Favre pass to J.Thomason to CHI 47 for 10 yards (B.Minter, T.Parrish). EPA +0.6WP 65%
9:19 GNB 4 & 8 (9:19) R.Longwell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Davis, Holder-M.Hasselbeck. EPA +0.9WP 66%
4:46 CHI R.Longwell kicks 62 yards from GB 30 to CHI 8. G.Milburn ran ob at CHI 14 for 6 yards. EPA -0.4WP 33%
4:41 CHI 1 & 10 (4:41) C.Enis left end to CHI 25 for 11 yards (A.Davis, F.Vinson). EPA +0.8WP 33%
4:41 CHI 1 & 10 (4:41) C.Enis right guard to CHI 29 for 4 yards (S.Dotson). EPA -0.0WP 34%
4:41 CHI 2 & 6 (4:41) J.Allen up the middle to CHI 40 for 11 yards (G.Koonce, M.McKenzie). EPA +0.8WP 33%
4:41 CHI 1 & 10 (4:41) G.Milburn left tackle to GB 49 for 11 yards (F.Vinson). EPA +0.8WP 36%
4:41 CHI 1 & 10 (4:41) J.Miller pass incomplete to M.Robinson. EPA -0.4WP 39%
4:41 CHI 2 & 10 (4:41) (Shotgun) J.Miller pass incomplete to M.Robinson. EPA -0.8WP 37%
4:41 CHI 3 & 10 (4:41) (Shotgun) G.Milburn left tackle for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +6.2WP 34%
2:16 CHI C.Boniol extra point is GOOD, Center-P.Mannelly, Holder-T.Sauerbrun. EPA +0.0WP 54%
2:16 GNB C.Boniol kicks 59 yards from CHI 30 to GB 11. D.Howard to GB 25 for 14 yards (J.Azumah, F.Smith). EPA +0.4WP 45%
2:07 GNB 1 & 10 (2:07) D.Levens to GB 21 for -4 yards (B.Minter). EPA -1.2WP 46%
2:07 GNB 2 & 14 (2:07) B.Favre pass to D.Levens to GB 25 for 4 yards (C.Hudson). EPA +2.9WP 43%
2:07 GNB 3 & 10 (2:07) B.Favre pass to C.Bradford to GB 39 for 14 yards (W.Harris). PENALTY on CHI-B.Robinson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at GB 39. EPA +0.0WP 42%
2:07 GNB 1 & 10 (2:07) D.Levens right guard to CHI 40 for 6 yards. EPA +0.1WP 52%
0:00 GNB END QUARTER 1 EPA +0.0WP 52%
Quarter 2
15:00 GNB 2 & 4 (15:00) PENALTY on GB-S.Dotson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 40 - No Play. EPA -0.5WP 52%
15:00 GNB 2 & 9 (15:00) D.Levens left end pushed ob at CHI 42 for 3 yards (R.McDonald). EPA -0.5WP 49%
15:00 GNB 3 & 6 (15:00) B.Favre pass to W.Henderson to CHI 43 for -1 yards (W.Holdman). EPA -1.6WP 49%
15:00 GNB 4 & 7 (15:00) L.Aguiar punts 25 yards to CHI 18, Center-R.Davis, fair catch by G.Milburn. EPA -0.1WP 45%
13:49 CHI 1 & 10 (13:49) C.Enis left end to CHI 19 for 1 yard (T.Williams, B.Harris). EPA -0.4WP 57%
13:49 CHI 2 & 9 (13:49) J.Miller pass intended for M.Robinson INTERCEPTED by M.McKenzie at CHI 27. M.McKenzie to CHI 27 for no gain (M.Robinson). EPA -3.3WP 56%
13:05 GNB 1 & 10 (13:05) B.Favre pass to A.Freeman to CHI 11 for 16 yards (B.Minter, C.Hudson). EPA +0.4WP 58%
13:05 GNB 1 & 10 (13:05) D.Levens left guard to CHI 5 for 6 yards (R.McDonald). PENALTY on GB-F.Winters, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 5. EPA +0.0WP 60%
13:05 GNB 1 & 14 (13:05) B.Favre pass intended for T.Davis INTERCEPTED by C.Hudson at CHI 0. Touchback. EPA -4.3WP 58%
12:06 CHI 1 & 10 (12:06) J.Miller pass intended for M.Robinson INTERCEPTED by D.Sharper at GB 47. D.Sharper to GB 47 for no gain. PENALTY on GB-M.McKenzie, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 20 - No Play. EPA +0.3WP 57%
12:06 CHI 1 & 10 (12:06) C.Enis up the middle to CHI 34 for 9 yards (D.Sharper). EPA +0.6WP 58%
12:06 CHI 2 & 1 (12:06) C.Enis to CHI 34 for no gain (V.Booker, S.Dotson). EPA -0.5WP 60%
12:06 CHI 3 & 1 (12:06) J.Miller pass to J.Allred to CHI 40 for 6 yards (G.Koonce). EPA +0.7WP 59%
12:06 CHI 1 & 10 (12:06) (Shotgun) J.Miller pass to C.Enis to CHI 48 for 8 yards (A.Davis). EPA +0.6WP 60%
12:06 CHI 2 & 2 (12:06) J.Allen right end to CHI 47 for -1 yards (J.Waddy). EPA -0.9WP 64%
12:06 CHI 3 & 3 (12:06) (Shotgun) J.Miller pass incomplete to M.Robinson. EPA -1.5WP 59%
12:06 CHI 4 & 3 (12:06) T.Sauerbrun punts 50 yards to GB 3, Center-P.Mannelly, downed by CHI-F.Smith. EPA +1.1WP 55%
8:17 GNB 1 & 10 (8:17) D.Levens right end pushed ob at GB 23 for 20 yards (T.Parrish). EPA +1.2WP 42%
8:17 GNB 1 & 10 (8:17) D.Levens right guard to GB 23 for no gain (B.Robinson). EPA -0.4WP 45%
8:17 GNB 2 & 10 (8:17) B.Favre pass to B.Schroeder to GB 33 for 10 yards (C.Hudson). EPA +1.0WP 43%
8:17 GNB 1 & 10 (8:17) D.Levens left guard to GB 36 for 3 yards (M.Wells). EPA -0.1WP 47%
8:17 GNB 2 & 7 (8:17) B.Favre pass to J.Thomason to GB 38 for 2 yards (W.Harris). EPA -0.5WP 47%
8:17 GNB 4 & 5 (8:17) L.Aguiar punts 48 yards to CHI 14, Center-R.Davis. G.Milburn to CHI 21 for 7 yards (J.Nelson). EPA +0.3WP 41%
5:10 CHI 1 & 10 (5:10) C.Enis right end to CHI 34 for 13 yards (D.Sharper). EPA +0.8WP 58%
5:10 CHI 1 & 10 (5:10) C.Enis up the middle to CHI 37 for 3 yards (V.Holliday; V.Booker). EPA -0.2WP 60%
5:10 CHI 2 & 7 (5:10) (Shotgun) J.Miller sacked at CHI 31 for -6 yards (sack split by B.Lyon and V.Booker). EPA -1.1WP 60%
5:10 CHI 3 & 13 (5:10) J.Miller pass intended for M.Brooks INTERCEPTED by D.Sharper at GB 42. D.Sharper to CHI 49 for 9 yards (B.Engram, C.Villarrial). M.Brooks injured on the play. EPA -1.8WP 54%
3:16 GNB 1 & 10 (3:16) B.Favre pass to B.Schroeder ran ob at CHI 32 for 17 yards (T.Cousin). EPA +1.1WP 49%
3:16 GNB 1 & 10 (3:16) B.Favre pass to A.Freeman to CHI 27 for 5 yards (T.Parrish, B.Robinson). EPA +0.0WP 55%
3:16 GNB 2 & 5 (3:16) A.Freeman right end to CHI 29 for -2 yards (W.Harris). EPA -0.7WP 57%
2:00 GNB Two-Minute Warning EPA +0.0WP 51%
2:00 GNB 3 & 7 (2:00) B.Favre pass to A.Freeman to CHI 20 for 9 yards (B.Minter). EPA +1.3WP 51%
1:32 GNB 1 & 10 (1:32) D.Levens right end to CHI 16 for 4 yards (W.Harris). EPA -0.1WP 56%
1:22 GNB Timeout #1 by GB at 01:22. EPA +0.0WP 56%
1:22 GNB 2 & 6 (1:22) B.Favre pass to T.Davis to CHI 4 for 12 yards (W.Harris, S.Harris). EPA +1.5WP 56%
0:43 GNB 1 & 4 (:43) D.Levens to CHI 7 for -3 yards (S.Harris). EPA -1.1WP 59%
0:39 GNB Timeout #2 by GB at 00:39. EPA +0.0WP 57%
0:35 GNB 3 & 7 (:35) B.Favre pass to T.Davis for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +3.4WP 54%
0:30 GNB R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Davis, Holder-M.Hasselbeck. EPA +0.0WP 66%
0:30 CHI R.Longwell kicks 44 yards from GB 30 to CHI 26. G.Milburn to CHI 26 for no gain (D.Parker). EPA +0.1WP 33%
0:30 CHI 1 & 10 (:30) (Shotgun) C.Enis left guard to CHI 37 for 11 yards (T.Williams; F.Vinson). EPA +0.1WP 34%
0:18 CHI 1 & 10 (:18) J.Miller pass incomplete to R.Wetnight. EPA -0.2WP 34%
0:13 CHI 2 & 10 (:13) J.Miller pass incomplete to R.Wetnight (D.Sharper). EPA -0.0WP 32%
0:08 CHI Timeout #1 by CHI at 00:08. EPA +0.0WP 29%
0:08 CHI 3 & 10 (:08) (Shotgun) J.Miller pass to D.Bates to CHI 45 for 8 yards (M.McKenzie). EPA +0.0WP 29%
0:01 CHI Timeout #2 by CHI at 00:01. EPA +0.0WP 31%
0:01 CHI 4 & 2 (:01) (Shotgun) J.Miller pass intended for B.Engram INTERCEPTED by A.Edwards at GB -3. Touchback. EPA -0.1WP 31%
0:00 END QUARTER 2 WP 68%
Quarter 3
15:00 GNB C.Boniol kicks 56 yards from CHI 30 to GB 14. D.Parker to GB 26 for 12 yards (K.Burns; F.Smith). EPA +0.5WP 68%
15:00 GNB 1 & 10 (15:00) D.Levens left end to GB 33 for 7 yards (C.Hudson). EPA +0.3WP 68%
15:00 GNB 2 & 3 (15:00) B.Favre sacked at GB 25 for -8 yards (J.Flanigan). EPA -1.8WP 71%
15:00 GNB 3 & 11 (15:00) (Shotgun) B.Favre pass to C.Bradford to CHI 46 for 29 yards (T.Parrish). EPA +3.3WP 63%
15:00 GNB 1 & 10 (15:00) D.Levens left end to CHI 40 for 6 yards (T.Parrish). EPA +0.2WP 73%
15:00 GNB 2 & 4 (15:00) D.Levens left end to CHI 38 for 2 yards (M.Wells). EPA -0.6WP 74%
15:00 GNB 3 & 2 (15:00) D.Levens to CHI 40 for -2 yards (M.Wells, B.Minter). EPA -2.0WP 74%
15:00 GNB 4 & 4 (15:00) B.Favre pass to J.Thomason to CHI 35 for 5 yards. Play Challenged by CHI and REVERSED. B.Favre pass incomplete to J.Thomason. The receiver did not have clear possession. EPA -1.7WP 67%
11:02 CHI 1 & 10 (11:02) C.Enis left guard to CHI 45 for 5 yards (B.Harris, S.Dotson). EPA +0.2WP 40%
11:02 CHI 2 & 5 (11:02) C.Enis right tackle to CHI 46 for 1 yard (D.Sharper, V.Holliday). EPA -0.6WP 40%
11:02 CHI 3 & 4 (11:02) (Shotgun) J.Miller pass to B.Engram to GB 49 for 5 yards (F.Vinson). EPA +1.3WP 37%
11:02 CHI 1 & 10 (11:02) J.Allen to GB 49 for no gain (G.Koonce; V.Booker). EPA -0.4WP 42%
11:02 CHI 2 & 10 (11:02) G.Milburn to CHI 45 for -6 yards (V.Holliday). EPA -1.6WP 40%
11:02 CHI 3 & 16 (11:02) (Shotgun) J.Miller pass to B.Engram to GB 40 for 15 yards (D.Sharper, L.Butler). EPA +0.3WP 33%
11:02 CHI 4 & 1 (11:02) C.Enis up the middle to GB 35 for 5 yards (S.Dotson). EPA +2.8WP 39%
11:02 CHI 1 & 10 (11:02) (Shotgun) J.Miller pass to M.Robinson to GB 26 for 9 yards (M.McKenzie). EPA +0.7WP 48%
11:02 CHI 2 & 1 (11:02) C.Enis left end to GB 17 for 9 yards (D.Sharper). EPA +0.5WP 51%
11:02 CHI 1 & 10 (11:02) J.Miller pass to B.Engram to GB 12 for 5 yards (B.Harris, D.Sharper). EPA +0.2WP 51%
11:02 CHI 2 & 5 (11:02) C.Enis right tackle to GB 10 for 2 yards (K.McKenzie). FUMBLES (K.McKenzie), RECOVERED by GB-K.McKenzie at GB 10. EPA -4.4WP 52%
4:11 GNB 1 & 10 (4:11) B.Favre right end to GB 15 for 5 yards (R.McDonald). EPA +0.0WP 70%
4:11 GNB 2 & 5 (4:11) D.Levens up the middle to GB 16 for 1 yard (B.Minter; M.Wells). EPA -0.5WP 70%
15:00 GNB 3 & 4 (15:00) B.Favre pass to W.Henderson to CHI 14 for 22 yards (B.Minter). EPA +2.2WP 44%
15:00 GNB Timeout #1 by CHI at 15:00. EPA +0.0WP 56%
15:00 GNB 1 & 10 (15:00) B.Favre pass incomplete to A.Freeman. Penalty on GB-M.Wahle, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. PENALTY on GB-A.Freeman, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 14 - No Play. EPA -1.1WP 56%
15:00 GNB 1 & 20 (15:00) B.Favre pass to D.Levens to CHI 18 for 6 yards (S.Burton). EPA +0.0WP 52%
5:56 GNB 3 & 10 (5:56) B.Favre sacked at GB 19 for -5 yards (V.Tuinei). FUMBLES (V.Tuinei), recovered by GB-F.Winters at GB 19. EPA -1.1WP 46%
5:56 GNB 4 & 15 (5:56) L.Aguiar punts 49 yards to CHI 32, Center-R.Davis. G.Milburn pushed ob at GB 49 for 19 yards (L.Hall). EPA -0.6WP 39%
4:55 CHI 1 & 10 (4:55) C.Enis left guard to GB 49 for no gain (B.Harris, G.Brown). EPA -0.4WP 72%
4:55 CHI 2 & 10 (4:55) (Shotgun) J.Miller pass incomplete to D.Bates. EPA -0.7WP 70%
4:55 CHI 3 & 10 (4:55) (Shotgun) J.Miller pass to G.Milburn to CHI 47 for -4 yards (T.Williams). EPA -1.5WP 65%
4:55 CHI 4 & 14 (4:55) T.Sauerbrun punts 37 yards to GB 16, Center-P.Mannelly, downed by CHI-F.Smith. EPA +0.3WP 55%
3:19 GNB 1 & 10 (3:19) B.Favre pass to W.Henderson to GB 21 for 4 yards (B.Minter). Yard marker changed due to change of possession. EPA -0.2WP 50%
3:19 GNB 2 & 6 (3:19) B.Favre pass to D.Levens to GB 31 for 10 yards (T.Cousin). EPA +0.9WP 49%
3:19 GNB 1 & 10 (3:19) B.Favre pass to A.Freeman to GB 37 for 6 yards (T.Carter, J.Miller). EPA +0.0WP 51%
2:00 GNB Two-Minute Warning EPA +0.0WP 54%
2:00 GNB 2 & 4 (2:00) B.Favre pass to D.Levens ran ob at GB 42 for 5 yards (W.Harris). EPA +0.4WP 54%
1:55 GNB 1 & 10 (1:55) D.Levens up the middle to GB 49 for 7 yards (J.Flanigan). EPA +0.2WP 55%
1:49 GNB 2 & 3 (1:49) B.Favre pass to A.Freeman to CHI 33 for 18 yards (B.Minter). EPA +1.4WP 60%
1:27 GNB 1 & 10 (1:27) D.Levens up the middle to CHI 31 for 2 yards (M.Wells). EPA -0.3WP 68%
1:00 GNB 2 & 8 (1:00) B.Favre pass incomplete to C.Bradford. PENALTY on CHI-T.Cousin, Defensive Pass Interference, 3 yards, enforced at CHI 31 - No Play. EPA +0.4WP 63%
0:53 GNB 1 & 10 (:53) B.Favre pass to A.Freeman ran ob at CHI 22 for 6 yards (W.Harris). EPA +0.4WP 71%
0:47 GNB 2 & 4 (:47) D.Levens left end ran ob at CHI 22 for no gain (T.Carter). EPA -0.3WP 72%
0:46 GNB 3 & 4 (:46) B.Favre pass incomplete to A.Freeman. PENALTY on CHI-T.Cousin, Defensive Pass Interference, 6 yards, enforced at CHI 22 - No Play. EPA +0.7WP 66%
0:41 GNB 1 & 10 (:41) D.Levens right end to CHI 16 for no gain (J.Flanigan). EPA -0.5WP 77%
0:33 GNB Timeout #2 by CHI at 00:33. EPA +0.0WP 75%
0:33 GNB 2 & 10 (:33) D.Levens right guard to CHI 13 for 3 yards (R.McDonald). EPA -0.9WP 75%
0:26 GNB Timeout #3 by CHI at 00:26. EPA +0.0WP 75%
0:26 GNB 3 & 7 (:26) B.Favre left guard to CHI 10 for 3 yards (S.Harris). EPA +0.3WP 75%
0:07 GNB Timeout #1 by GB at 00:07. EPA +0.0WP 69%
0:07 GNB 4 & 4 (:07) R.Longwell 28 yard field goal is BLOCKED (B.Robinson), Center-R.Davis, Holder-M.Hasselbeck, RECOVERED by CHI at CHI 10. EPA -2.7WP 69%