From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(1:59) 8-M.Brunell pass to 82-J.Smith for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6β0
Q1
1:51
JAX
1-M.Hollis extra point is GOOD, Center-83-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
7β0
Q2
1:15
CIN
(1:15) 28-C.Dillon left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7β6
Q2
1:09
CIN
5-N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-91-R.Chevrier, Holder-8-N.Harris.
7β7
Q3
5:46
CIN
(5:46) 5-N.Rackers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-R.Chevrier, Holder-8-N.Harris.
7β10
Q4
14:32
JAX
(14:32) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell pass to 87-K.McCardell for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13β10
Q4
14:27
JAX
1-M.Hollis extra point is GOOD, Center-83-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
14β10
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. CIN closed at 0%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q3
0:29
JAX
(:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell pass to 87-K.McCardell to CIN 18 for 29 yards (42-C.Carter).
34% β 54%
+19%
+3.83
Q2
0:14
JAX
(:14) 1-M.Hollis 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-83-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
62% β 43%
-19%
-2.00
Q4
5:04
CIN
(5:04) 28-C.Dillon right tackle to JAX 43 for 2 yards (97-R.Wynn).
28% β 40%
+11%
+1.87
Q4
2:42
JAX
(2:42) 8-M.Brunell pass to 80-K.Brady to JAX 49 for 11 yards (23-R.Bean).
79% β 90%
+11%
+0.75
Q4
14:32
JAX
(14:32) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell pass to 87-K.McCardell for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
53% β 63%
+11%
+3.02
Q3
1:37
CIN
(1:37) 8-N.Harris punts 36 yards to CIN 47, Center-91-R.Chevrier. 85-D.Gibson to CIN 38 for 9 yards (34-K.Kaesviharn).
62% β 52%
-11%
-0.53
Q2
3:03
JAX
(3:03) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell pass intended for 82-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 34-K.Kaesviharn at CIN 33. 34-K.Kaesviharn to JAX 38 for 29 yards (74-M.Williams).
74% β 64%
-9%
-2.48
Q4
3:36
CIN
(3:36) 3-J.Kitna pass incomplete to 28-C.Dillon.
38% β 29%
-9%
-1.41
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
11:37 JAX 1 & 10 (11:37) 34-S.Mack right end pushed ob at JAX 14 for 2 yards (56-B.Simmons). EPA -0.4WP 47%
11:11 JAX 2 & 8 (11:11) 8-M.Brunell pass to 31-P.Washington to JAX 17 for 3 yards (20-M.Roman). EPA -0.2WP 47%
10:27 JAX 3 & 5 (10:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell scrambles left end ran ob at JAX 26 for 9 yards (42-C.Carter). EPA +1.6WP 46%
9:59 JAX 1 & 10 (9:59) 35-E.Joseph up the middle to JAX 25 for -1 yards (99-O.Gibson). EPA -0.7WP 49%
9:18 JAX 2 & 11 (9:18) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell sacked at JAX 17 for -8 yards (55-R.Wilson, 90-J.Smith). EPA -1.4WP 48%
8:47 JAX 3 & 19 (8:47) 8-M.Brunell pass to 82-J.Smith to JAX 28 for 11 yards (23-R.Bean). EPA -0.0WP 44%
8:07 JAX 4 & 8 (8:07) 2-C.Hanson punts 35 yards to CIN 37, Center-83-J.Zelenka. 84-T.Houshmandzadeh to CIN 37 for no gain (31-P.Washington). EPA -0.1WP 43%
7:54 CIN 1 & 10 (7:54) 28-C.Dillon right guard to CIN 45 for 8 yards (20-D.Darius). EPA +0.5WP 57%
7:18 CIN 2 & 2 (7:18) 28-C.Dillon right end to CIN 45 for no gain (52-E.Westmoreland). EPA -0.7WP 59%
6:34 CIN 4 & 2 (6:34) 8-N.Harris punts 39 yards to JAX 16, Center-91-R.Chevrier. 85-D.Gibson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CIN-33-J.Armour at JAX 18. PENALTY on CIN-34-K.Kaesviharn, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 16. NOTE: Receiver muffed the ball at the JAX 13; officials marked the infraction occurriung at the JAX 16. EPA -0.5WP 50%
6:22 JAX 1 & 10 (6:22) 34-S.Mack left end to JAX 33 for 2 yards (90-J.Smith). EPA -0.3WP 51%
5:49 JAX 2 & 8 (5:49) 34-S.Mack left guard to JAX 40 for 7 yards (55-R.Wilson). EPA +0.5WP 50%
5:13 JAX 3 & 1 (5:13) 8-M.Brunell pass to 87-K.McCardell to JAX 45 for 5 yards (20-M.Roman). EPA +0.7WP 50%
14:28 CIN 2 & 10 (14:28) 36-B.Bennett right guard to JAX 37 for no gain (41-K.Thomas). PENALTY on JAX-96-G.Walker, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 37 - No Play. EPA +0.6WP 36%
14:09 CIN 3 & 5 (14:09) 28-C.Dillon left tackle to JAX 32 for no gain (90-T.Brackens). EPA -1.6WP 35%
13:28 CIN 4 & 5 (13:28) 3-J.Kitna sacked at JAX 39 for -7 yards (90-T.Brackens). EPA -2.3WP 30%
13:21 JAX 1 & 10 (13:21) 34-S.Mack left end to JAX 35 for -5 yards (99-O.Gibson). EPA -1.0WP 76%
12:44 JAX 2 & 15 (12:44) 8-M.Brunell pass to 82-J.Smith pushed ob at CIN 43 for 22 yards (33-J.Armour). EPA +2.1WP 73%
12:19 JAX 1 & 10 (12:19) PENALTY on JAX-77-Z.Wiegert, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 43 - No Play. EPA -0.6WP 78%
12:01 JAX 1 & 15 (12:01) 8-M.Brunell sacked at JAX 45 for -7 yards (90-J.Smith). EPA -0.8WP 76%
11:27 JAX 2 & 22 (11:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell pass to 82-J.Smith to JAX 44 for -1 yards (23-R.Bean). EPA -0.8WP 75%
10:47 JAX 3 & 23 (10:47) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell scrambles up the middle to CIN 43 for 13 yards. EPA -0.5WP 73%
10:03 JAX 4 & 10 (10:03) 2-C.Hanson punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-83-J.Zelenka, Touchback. EPA -0.1WP 72%
9:54 CIN 1 & 10 (9:54) 28-C.Dillon right tackle to CIN 19 for -1 yards (97-R.Wynn; 59-E.Thomas). EPA -0.7WP 31%
NOTE: Change of possession changed the yard line. EPA +0.0WP 76%
9:19 CIN 2 & 11 (9:19) 3-J.Kitna pass to 85-C.Johnson to CIN 31 for 12 yards (41-K.Thomas). EPA +1.3WP 28%
8:43 CIN 1 & 10 (8:43) 3-J.Kitna pass intended for 85-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Beasley at JAX 24. 21-A.Beasley to JAX 24 for no gain (85-C.Johnson). EPA -1.6WP 32%
8:34 JAX 1 & 10 (8:34) 34-S.Mack right tackle to JAX 23 for -1 yards (56-B.Simmons; 55-R.Wilson). EPA -0.6WP 72%
7:51 JAX 2 & 11 (7:51) 8-M.Brunell pass to 82-J.Smith ran ob at JAX 34 for 11 yards. EPA +1.2WP 71%
7:28 JAX 1 & 10 (7:28) 8-M.Brunell pass incomplete to 82-J.Smith. Play Challenged by JAX and Upheld. (Timeout #1.) EPA -0.4WP 75%
2:48 CIN 2 & 10 (2:48) 28-C.Dillon right guard to JAX 28 for 10 yards (20-D.Darius). PENALTY on CIN-80-P.Warrick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 34. NOTE: C.Dillon (CIN #28) is credited with 4-yard gain. EPA -0.6WP 34%
2:23 CIN 2 & 16 (2:23) 3-J.Kitna pass to 85-C.Johnson ran ob at JAX 27 for 17 yards. EPA +1.6WP 31%
2:00 CIN 1 & 10 (2:00) 28-C.Dillon right tackle to JAX 21 for 6 yards (20-D.Darius). EPA +0.4WP 38%
1:21 CIN 2 & 4 (1:21) 3-J.Kitna pass to 86-D.Scott pushed ob at JAX 9 for 12 yards (26-A.Battles). EPA +0.8WP 39%
1:15 CIN 1 & 9 (1:15) 28-C.Dillon left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +2.6WP 42%
1:09 CIN 5-N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-91-R.Chevrier, Holder-8-N.Harris. EPA +0.0WP 50%
1:09 JAX 5-N.Rackers kicks 51 yards from CIN 30 to JAX 19. 86-M.Ross to JAX 45 for 26 yards (55-R.Wilson). EPA +0.9WP 48%
1:01 JAX 1 & 10 (1:01) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell sacked at JAX 41 for -4 yards (94-T.Williams). EPA -0.7WP 53%
0:42 JAX 2 & 14 (:42) {No huddle} (Shotgun) PENALTY on CIN, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 41 - No Play. NOTE: No player identified on penalty. EPA +0.3WP 51%
0:42 JAX 2 & 9 (:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell sacked at JAX 43 for -3 yards (90-J.Smith). EPA -0.4WP 52%
0:36 Timeout #2 by JAX at 00:36. EPA +0.0WP 47%
0:36 JAX 3 & 12 (:36) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell pass to 82-J.Smith pushed ob at CIN 42 for 15 yards (34-K.Kaesviharn). EPA +1.0WP 47%
0:28 JAX 1 & 10 (:28) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell pass to 87-K.McCardell pushed ob at CIN 33 for 9 yards (23-R.Bean). EPA +0.5WP 55%
0:22 JAX 2 & 1 (:22) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell pass to 87-K.McCardell to CIN 26 for 7 yards (20-M.Roman). EPA +0.0WP 61%
0:14 Timeout #3 by JAX at 00:14. EPA +0.0WP 62%
0:14 JAX 1 & 10 (:14) 1-M.Hollis 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-83-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson. EPA -2.0WP 62%
0:09 CIN 1 & 10 (:09) 3-J.Kitna to CIN 34 for -1 yards. Note: Took a knee. EPA -0.0WP 57%
0:00 END QUARTER 2 WP 45%
Quarter 3
15:00 JAX 5-N.Rackers kicks 66 yards from CIN 30 to JAX 4. 35-E.Joseph to JAX 32 for 28 yards (81-R.Dugans; 57-A.Ross). EPA +0.9WP 45%
14:50 JAX 1 & 10 (14:50) 34-S.Mack right tackle to JAX 34 for 2 yards (96-V.Booker). EPA -0.4WP 47%
14:17 JAX 2 & 8 (14:17) 8-M.Brunell pass to 82-J.Smith to JAX 48 for 14 yards (26-C.Hall). EPA +1.5WP 46%
13:39 JAX 1 & 10 (13:39) 34-S.Mack left guard to JAX 46 for -2 yards (56-B.Simmons; 95-S.Foley). EPA -0.8WP 52%
13:08 JAX 2 & 12 (13:08) 35-E.Joseph right guard to JAX 47 for 1 yard (51-T.Spikes). EPA -0.7WP 47%
12:29 JAX 3 & 11 (12:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell sacked at JAX 34 for -13 yards (90-J.Smith). EPA -1.9WP 43%
12:12 JAX 4 & 24 (12:12) 2-C.Hanson punts 41 yards to CIN 25, Center-83-J.Zelenka, out of bounds. EPA +0.4WP 39%
12:01 CIN 1 & 10 (12:01) 28-C.Dillon right guard to CIN 29 for 4 yards (91-S.Payne; 56-H.Nickerson). EPA -0.0WP 56%
11:23 CIN 2 & 6 (11:23) 28-C.Dillon right guard to CIN 31 for 2 yards (97-R.Wynn). PENALTY on CIN-41-L.Neal, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 29 - No Play. EPA -0.9WP 55%
11:01 CIN 2 & 11 (11:01) (Shotgun) 3-J.Kitna pass to 28-C.Dillon to CIN 32 for 8 yards (56-H.Nickerson). EPA +0.6WP 53%
10:20 CIN 3 & 3 (10:20) 3-J.Kitna pass to 85-C.Johnson to CIN 39 for 7 yards (21-A.Beasley). EPA +1.2WP 55%
9:44 CIN 1 & 10 (9:44) 3-J.Kitna pass to 36-B.Bennett to 50 for 11 yards (56-H.Nickerson). EPA +0.7WP 59%
9:00 CIN 1 & 10 (9:00) 29-C.Keaton right guard to JAX 49 for 1 yard (20-D.Darius). EPA -0.4WP 60%
8:17 CIN 2 & 9 (8:17) PENALTY on JAX-99-M.Stroud, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 49 - No Play. EPA +0.5WP 58%
8:01 CIN 2 & 4 (8:01) 3-J.Kitna pass to 86-D.Scott pushed ob at JAX 34 for 10 yards (41-K.Thomas). EPA +0.7WP 59%
7:55 CIN 1 & 10 (7:55) 28-C.Dillon right guard to JAX 29 for 5 yards (20-D.Darius; 52-E.Westmoreland). EPA +0.1WP 65%
7:15 CIN 2 & 5 (7:15) 28-C.Dillon up the middle to JAX 28 for 1 yard (91-S.Payne). EPA -0.5WP 66%
6:32 CIN 3 & 4 (6:32) 28-C.Dillon left end to JAX 29 for -1 yards (26-A.Battles). EPA -2.1WP 63%
5:46 CIN 4 & 5 (5:46) 5-N.Rackers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-R.Chevrier, Holder-8-N.Harris. EPA +1.9WP 57%
5:41 JAX 5-N.Rackers kicks 42 yards from CIN 30 to JAX 28. 86-M.Ross pushed ob at JAX 43 for 15 yards (57-A.Ross). PENALTY on JAX-89-R.Prince, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 37. NOTE: Ross (JAX #86) is credited with 9 return yards. EPA +0.4WP 35%
5:34 JAX 1 & 10 (5:34) 8-M.Brunell pass to 87-K.McCardell to JAX 40 for 13 yards (31-D.Williams). EPA +0.8WP 36%
5:10 JAX 1 & 10 (5:10) {No huddle} (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell pass to 35-E.Joseph to JAX 43 for 3 yards (51-T.Spikes). EPA -0.1WP 39%
4:42 JAX 2 & 7 (4:42) {No huddle} (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell pass to 87-K.McCardell to JAX 49 for 6 yards (42-C.Carter). NOTE: Brunell (JAX #8) injured on the play, came off the field on own power. EPA +0.4WP 40%
4:09 JAX 3 & 1 (4:09) 34-S.Mack left guard to JAX 49 for no gain (56-B.Simmons). EPA -1.8WP 40%
3:36 JAX 4 & 1 (3:36) 2-C.Hanson punts 40 yards to CIN 11, Center-83-J.Zelenka. 80-P.Warrick to CIN 13 for 2 yards (57-J.Tuipala). EPA +0.2WP 35%
3:26 CIN 1 & 10 (3:26) 3-J.Kitna pass to 41-L.Neal to CIN 18 for 5 yards (90-T.Brackens, 91-S.Payne). NOTE: Beasley (JAX #21) injured on the play, came off the field with assistance. EPA +0.0WP 71%
2:45 CIN 2 & 5 (2:45) 3-J.Kitna scrambles to CIN 25 for 7 yards. PENALTY on CIN-36-B.Bennett, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CIN 18 - No Play. EPA -1.1WP 70%
2:20 CIN 2 & 14 (2:20) 28-C.Dillon up the middle to CIN 11 for 2 yards (96-G.Walker). EPA -0.5WP 68%
1:37 CIN 4 & 12 (1:37) 8-N.Harris punts 36 yards to CIN 47, Center-91-R.Chevrier. 85-D.Gibson to CIN 38 for 9 yards (34-K.Kaesviharn). EPA -0.5WP 62%
1:28 JAX 1 & 10 (1:28) 8-M.Brunell sacked at CIN 40 for -2 yards (94-T.Williams). EPA -0.9WP 48%
1:00 JAX 2 & 12 (1:00) 8-M.Brunell sacked at CIN 47 for -7 yards (96-V.Booker). FUMBLES (96-V.Booker), and recovers at CIN 47. 8-M.Brunell to CIN 47 for no gain (96-V.Booker). NOTE: Ball fell out of Brunell's (JAX #8) hand. EPA -1.5WP 42%
0:29 JAX 3 & 19 (:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell pass to 87-K.McCardell to CIN 18 for 29 yards (42-C.Carter). EPA +3.8WP 34%
12:36 CIN 3 & 12 (12:36) (Shotgun) 3-J.Kitna pass incomplete to 85-C.Johnson (20-D.Darius). NOTE: Braham (CIN #74) injured on the play, came off the field on his own power. EPA -1.1WP 32%
12:30 CIN 4 & 12 (12:30) 8-N.Harris punts 44 yards to JAX 11, Center-91-R.Chevrier. 85-D.Gibson to JAX 17 for 6 yards (34-K.Kaesviharn). EPA +0.6WP 28%
12:19 JAX 1 & 10 (12:19) 34-S.Mack right tackle to JAX 18 for 1 yard (56-B.Simmons; 23-R.Bean). EPA -0.4WP 70%
11:45 JAX 2 & 9 (11:45) 8-M.Brunell pass to 34-S.Mack to JAX 17 for -1 yards (23-R.Bean). EPA -0.6WP 68%
9:17 JAX 1 & 10 (9:17) 35-E.Joseph right end to JAX 18 for 1 yard (34-K.Kaesviharn). EPA -0.4WP 70%
8:40 JAX 2 & 9 (8:40) 8-M.Brunell pass to 80-K.Brady to JAX 21 for 3 yards (51-T.Spikes). EPA -0.1WP 69%
8:03 JAX 3 & 6 (8:03) (Shotgun) 8-M.Brunell scrambles up the middle to JAX 22 for 1 yard (99-O.Gibson). EPA -0.9WP 72%
7:24 JAX 4 & 5 (7:24) 2-C.Hanson punts 36 yards to CIN 42, Center-83-J.Zelenka. 80-P.Warrick to CIN 46 for 4 yards (57-J.Tuipala). EPA -0.7WP 64%
7:14 CIN 1 & 10 (7:14) 3-J.Kitna pass to 81-R.Dugans to JAX 47 for 7 yards (29-J.Craft). EPA +0.2WP 41%
6:39 CIN 2 & 3 (6:39) PENALTY on CIN-63-M.Goff, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 47 - No Play. EPA -0.6WP 43%
6:27 CIN 2 & 8 (6:27) 3-J.Kitna pass to 86-D.Scott to JAX 45 for 7 yards (56-H.Nickerson). EPA +0.5WP 38%
5:45 CIN 3 & 1 (5:45) 28-C.Dillon up the middle to JAX 45 for no gain (20-D.Darius; 56-H.Nickerson). EPA -1.5WP 37%
5:04 CIN 4 & 1 (5:04) 28-C.Dillon right tackle to JAX 43 for 2 yards (97-R.Wynn). EPA +1.9WP 28%
4:29 CIN 1 & 10 (4:29) 28-C.Dillon left guard to JAX 41 for 2 yards (20-D.Darius; 91-S.Payne). EPA -0.4WP 40%
3:47 CIN 2 & 8 (3:47) 3-J.Kitna pass incomplete to 80-P.Warrick (90-T.Brackens). NOTE: Batted at the line, came back to Webb (CIN #73) who dropped the deflection. EPA -0.8WP 37%
3:41 Timeout #1 by CIN at 03:41. EPA +0.0WP 31%
3:41 CIN 3 & 8 (3:41) (Shotgun) 3-J.Kitna pass incomplete to 80-P.Warrick. PENALTY on JAX-90-T.Brackens, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 41 - No Play. EPA +0.7WP 31%