From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-B.St. Louis, Holder-D.Pope.
7β0
Q3
10:04
CIN
(10:04) N.Rackers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-B.St. Louis, Holder-D.Pope.
10β0
Q3
2:42
CLV
(2:42) P.Dawson 18 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Kuehl, Holder-C.Gardocki.
10β3
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. CLV closed at 0%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q1
15:00
CLV
N.Rackers kicks 66 yards from CIN 30 to CLE 4. J.White to CLE 44 for 40 yards (N.Rackers). PENALTY on CLE-T.Rogers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 34.
0% β 55%
+55%
+0.17
Q3
4:09
CLV
(4:09) D.Pederson pass incomplete to K.Johnson. PENALTY on CIN-R.Heath, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at CIN 39 - No Play.
23% β 36%
+13%
+2.90
Q1
4:20
CIN
(4:20) (Shotgun) A.Smith pass to B.Bennett to CLE 38 for 21 yards (M.Smith).
47% β 60%
+13%
+2.30
Q2
15:00
CIN
(15:00) A.Smith pass to C.Yeast to CLE 25 for 19 yards.
49% β 61%
+12%
+3.00
Q2
8:07
CIN
(8:07) A.Smith pass intended for P.Warrick INTERCEPTED by W.Rainer at CLE 48. W.Rainer to CIN 47 for 5 yards.
76% β 65%
-11%
-3.94
Q3
2:42
CLV
(2:42) T.Prentice up the middle to CIN 1 for no gain (B.Granville).
32% β 24%
-8%
-2.45
Q4
8:34
CLV
(8:34) D.Pederson left end to CLE 5 for no gain. PENALTY on CLE, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.
15% β 7%
-8%
-1.22
Q1
0:15
CIN
(:15) C.Dillon left tackle to CLE 44 for -4 yards (D.McCutcheon).
56% β 49%
-8%
-1.49
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
5:34 CIN 2 & 10 (5:34) B.Bennett left tackle to CIN 40 for 5 yards (C.Brown). EPA -0.2WP 50%
4:56 CIN 3 & 5 (4:56) A.Smith pass incomplete to C.Yeast. PENALTY on CLE, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at CIN 40 - No Play. EPA +1.9WP 49%
4:56 CIN 1 & 10 (4:56) C.Dillon right tackle to CLE 49 for no gain. PENALTY on CIN, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 49 - No Play. EPA -1.0WP 55%
9:47 CIN 1 & 10 (9:47) C.Dillon right tackle to CIN 39 for 9 yards (W.Rainer). EPA +0.7WP 73%
9:15 CIN 2 & 1 (9:15) C.Dillon right tackle to 50 for 11 yards (K.McKenzie). EPA +0.6WP 76%
8:44 CIN 1 & 10 (8:44) B.Bennett up the middle to CLE 49 for 1 yard (O.Roye). EPA -0.4WP 77%
8:07 CIN 2 & 9 (8:07) A.Smith pass intended for P.Warrick INTERCEPTED by W.Rainer at CLE 48. W.Rainer to CIN 47 for 5 yards. EPA -3.9WP 76%
7:56 CLV 1 & 10 (7:56) D.Pederson up the middle to CIN 45 for 2 yards (M.Bankston). EPA -0.3WP 35%
7:25 CLV 2 & 8 (7:25) T.Prentice left end to CIN 43 for 2 yards (T.Spikes). EPA -0.5WP 33%
6:48 CLV 3 & 6 (6:48) D.Pederson pass to D.Northcutt to CIN 40 for 3 yards (R.Wilson). EPA -1.2WP 33%
6:48 CLV 4 & 3 (6:48) C.Gardocki punts 10 yards to CIN 30, Center-R.Kuehl, downed by CLE-M.Moore. EPA -1.2WP 28%
5:59 CIN 1 & 10 (5:59) B.Bennett to CIN 29 for -1 yards (C.Brown, J.Miller). EPA -0.7WP 73%
5:20 CIN 2 & 11 (5:20) A.Smith right end ran ob at CIN 39 for 10 yards (C.Brown). EPA +0.7WP 71%
5:02 CIN 3 & 1 (5:02) C.Dillon right tackle to CLE 36 for 25 yards (K.McKenzie, P.Ellsworth). EPA +2.0WP 75%
4:24 CIN 1 & 10 (4:24) B.Bennett left end to CLE 33 for 3 yards (D.McCutcheon). EPA -0.2WP 80%
3:50 CIN 2 & 7 (3:50) B.Bennett right tackle to CLE 29 for 4 yards (M.Thompson). EPA -0.0WP 80%
3:15 CIN 3 & 3 (3:15) B.Bennett left end to CLE 29 for no gain (D.McCutcheon). EPA -1.2WP 80%
3:15 CIN 4 & 3 (3:15) N.Rackers 46 yard field goal is No Good, Center-B.St. Louis, Holder-D.Pope. PENALTY on CIN, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 29 - No Play. EPA -0.7WP 79%
2:07 CIN Timeout #1 by CLE at 02:07. EPA +0.0WP 76%
0:59 CIN 2 & 10 (:59) (Shotgun) B.Bennett left guard to CIN 41 for 4 yards (R.Taylor). EPA -0.2WP 76%
0:51 CIN Timeout #2 by CLE at 00:51. EPA +0.0WP 77%
0:49 CIN 3 & 6 (:49) A.Smith sacked at CIN 35 for -6 yards (D.McCutcheon). FUMBLES (D.McCutcheon), recovered by CIN-M.Goff at CIN 35. M.Goff to CIN 35 for no gain (D.McCutcheon). EPA -0.5WP 77%
0:32 CIN 4 & 12 (:32) D.Pope punts 48 yards to CLE 17, Center-B.St. Louis. D.Northcutt to CLE 34 for 17 yards (A.Spearman). EPA -0.2WP 73%
0:25 CLV 1 & 10 (:25) D.Pederson left end ran ob at CLE 42 for 8 yards. EPA +0.2WP 26%
8:57 CLV 1 & 10 (8:57) T.Prentice left end to CLE 12 for 2 yards. PENALTY on CLE-M.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 10 - No Play. EPA -0.7WP 17%
8:34 CLV 1 & 15 (8:34) D.Pederson left end to CLE 5 for no gain. PENALTY on CLE, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. EPA -1.2WP 15%
8:26 CIN P.Dawson kicks 61 yards from CLE 20 to CIN 19. C.Yeast to CIN 48 for 29 yards (J.White). EPA +1.6WP 93%
8:16 CIN 1 & 10 (8:16) C.Dillon right tackle to CLE 49 for 3 yards (K.McKenzie). EPA -0.2WP 94%
7:31 CIN 2 & 7 (7:31) B.Bennett left tackle to CIN 48 for -3 yards (K.McKenzie). EPA -0.8WP 95%
6:51 CIN 3 & 10 (6:51) A.Smith sacked at CIN 44 for -4 yards (M.Moore). EPA -1.5WP 94%
6:51 CIN 4 & 14 (6:51) D.Pope punts 52 yards to CLE 4, Center-B.St. Louis. D.Northcutt to CLE 21 for 17 yards (C.Curtis). EPA +0.2WP 92%
6:09 CLV 1 & 10 (6:09) T.Prentice right tackle to CLE 22 for 1 yard (T.Spikes, M.Bankston). EPA -0.5WP 9%
5:33 CLV 2 & 9 (5:33) S.Wynn sacked at CLE 13 for -9 yards (C.Carter). EPA -1.2WP 7%
4:58 CLV 3 & 18 (4:58) S.Wynn pass to K.Johnson to CLE 45 for 32 yards (T.Mack). EPA +3.0WP 5%
4:16 CLV 1 & 10 (4:16) S.Wynn pass incomplete to D.Patten. PENALTY on CIN, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 45 - No Play. EPA +0.6WP 8%
4:08 CLV 1 & 5 (4:08) S.Wynn pass to K.Johnson to CIN 41 for 9 yards (T.Carter). EPA +0.2WP 9%