From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(9:15) R.Cunningham 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-D.Hellestrae, Holder-E.Bjornson.
3β0
Q2
14:19
DAL
(14:19) T.Aikman pass to E.Smith for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9β0
Q2
11:35
DAL
R.Cunningham extra point is GOOD, Center-D.Hellestrae, Holder-E.Bjornson.
10β0
Q4
13:40
PHI
(13:40) N.Johnson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-D.Diaz-Infante, Holder-D.Pederson.
10β3
Q4
7:46
PHI
(7:46) N.Johnson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-D.Diaz-Infante, Holder-D.Pederson.
10β6
Q4
1:14
PHI
(1:14) D.Pederson pass to C.Johnson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10β12
Q4
1:07
PHI
N.Johnson extra point is GOOD, Center-D.Diaz-Infante, Holder-D.Pederson.
10β13
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. PHI closed at 100%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q1
15:00
DAL
D.Akers kicks 68 yards from PHI 30 to DAL 2. J.Ogden to DAL 26 for 24 yards (B.Gardner).
0% β 43%
+43%
+0.40
Q4
1:14
PHI
(1:14) D.Pederson pass to C.Johnson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
40% β 72%
+32%
+4.52
Q1
5:31
DAL
(5:31) E.Smith right tackle to PHI 1 for no gain (W.Thomas). FUMBLES (W.Thomas), RECOVERED by PHI-W.Thomas at PHI 1. W.Thomas to PHI 10 for 9 yards (E.Smith).
70% β 51%
-19%
-6.18
Q4
9:00
PHI
(9:00) D.Pederson pass to C.Johnson to DAL 21 for 36 yards (D.Sanders).
18% β 34%
+16%
+3.09
Q4
0:47
DAL
(:47) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass intended for J.Ogden INTERCEPTED by B.Taylor at DAL 24. B.Taylor to DAL 11 for 13 yards (J.Ogden).
14% β 2%
-12%
-4.02
Q4
3:13
PHI
(3:13) D.Staley right end pushed ob at DAL 31 for 19 yards (C.Hennings).
33% β 42%
+9%
+1.02
Q4
5:42
DAL
(5:42) E.Smith up the middle to DAL 34 for -2 yards (W.Thomas; J.Trotter).
76% β 68%
-9%
-1.45
Q3
4:53
PHI
(4:53) D.Pederson pass intended for C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by I.Reese at DAL 0. Touchback.
22% β 14%
-8%
-2.19
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
7:07 PHI 4 & 3 (7:07) S.Landeta punts 44 yards to DAL 22, Center-D.Diaz-Infante. D.Sanders to DAL 31 for 9 yards (B.Gardner). Penalty on PHI-L.Broughton, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined. EPA +0.1WP 49%
5:31 DAL 1 & 10 (5:31) T.Aikman pass to M.Irvin to DAL 39 for 8 yards (B.Taylor). DAL-M.Irvin was injured during the play. He is Out. Irvin taken to Thomas Jefferson Spine Trauma Center, accompanied by an Eagles trauma specialist. EPA +0.6WP 55%
5:31 DAL 2 & 2 (5:31) E.Smith right tackle to DAL 42 for 3 yards (J.Darling). EPA +0.1WP 57%
5:31 DAL 1 & 10 (5:31) T.Aikman pass to D.LaFleur to PHI 49 for 9 yards (J.Darling). EPA +0.9WP 57%
5:31 DAL 2 & 1 (5:31) E.Smith left end pushed ob at PHI 29 for 20 yards (B.Dawkins). EPA +1.4WP 61%
5:31 DAL 1 & 10 (5:31) PENALTY on DAL-D.LaFleur, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 29 - No Play. EPA -0.8WP 62%
5:31 DAL 1 & 15 (5:31) T.Aikman pass incomplete to E.Mills (B.Dawkins). EPA -0.5WP 61%
5:31 DAL 2 & 15 (5:31) T.Aikman pass to R.Ismail to PHI 21 for 13 yards (T.Hauck). EPA +1.1WP 59%
5:31 DAL 3 & 2 (5:31) E.Smith left end to PHI 17 for 4 yards (B.Johnson). EPA +0.9WP 61%
5:31 DAL 1 & 10 (5:31) T.Aikman pass to R.Ismail ran ob at PHI 1 for 16 yards. EPA +1.8WP 65%
5:31 DAL 1 & 1 (5:31) E.Smith right tackle to PHI 1 for no gain (W.Thomas). FUMBLES (W.Thomas), RECOVERED by PHI-W.Thomas at PHI 1. W.Thomas to PHI 10 for 9 yards (E.Smith). EPA -6.2WP 70%
11:35 PHI 4 & 4 (11:35) S.Landeta punts 47 yards to DAL 23, Center-D.Diaz-Infante. D.Sanders pushed ob at DAL 39 for 16 yards (E.Bieniemy). EPA -0.3WP 25%
10:05 DAL 1 & 10 (10:05) T.Aikman pass to E.Smith pushed ob at DAL 42 for 3 yards (W.Thomas). EPA -0.2WP 80%
10:05 DAL 2 & 7 (10:05) PENALTY on DAL-T.Myslinski, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 42 - No Play. EPA -0.6WP 79%
10:05 DAL 2 & 12 (10:05) T.Aikman pass to E.Smith pushed ob at DAL 45 for 8 yards (W.Thomas). EPA +0.4WP 78%
8:26 DAL Timeout #2 by DAL at 08:26. EPA +0.0WP 78%
8:26 DAL 3 & 4 (8:26) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass incomplete to J.Tucker (A.Harris). PENALTY on PHI-A.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at DAL 45 - No Play. EPA +2.0WP 78%
8:26 DAL 1 & 10 (8:26) E.Smith left end to PHI 30 for 5 yards (T.Hauck). EPA +0.1WP 81%
8:26 DAL 2 & 5 (8:26) E.Smith up the middle to PHI 30 for no gain (B.Johnson). EPA -0.5WP 81%
8:26 DAL 3 & 5 (8:26) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass to J.Tucker to PHI 24 for 6 yards (A.Harris). EPA +0.1WP 80%
8:26 DAL 1 & 10 (8:26) T.Aikman pass incomplete to E.Mills. PENALTY on DAL-B.Fricke, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 24. EPA +0.0WP 83%
8:26 DAL 1 & 20 (8:26) T.Aikman pass to E.Smith to PHI 29 for 5 yards (J.Trotter). EPA +0.1WP 81%
8:26 DAL 2 & 15 (8:26) E.Smith left guard to PHI 24 for 5 yards (J.Trotter). FUMBLES (J.Trotter), recovered by DAL-D.LaFleur at PHI 24. EPA +0.4WP 80%
8:26 DAL 3 & 10 (8:26) T.Aikman pass intended for R.Ismail INTERCEPTED by T.Vincent at PHI 0. Touchback. EPA -3.7WP 81%
4:33 PHI 1 & 10 (4:33) D.Pederson pass to T.Small to PHI 39 for 19 yards (I.Reese). PENALTY on PHI-D.Brzezinski, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 39. EPA +0.0WP 25%
4:33 PHI 1 & 6 (4:33) D.Pederson left end pushed ob at PHI 30 for 6 yards (R.Godfrey). PENALTY on PHI-C.Martin, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 24 - No Play. EPA -0.9WP 26%
4:33 PHI 1 & 16 (4:33) D.Staley up the middle to PHI 18 for 4 yards (D.Hambrick). EPA -0.2WP 24%
4:33 PHI 2 & 12 (4:33) D.Pederson pass to J.Weaver to PHI 21 for 3 yards (D.Coakley). EPA -0.0WP 23%
2:24 PHI Timeout #1 by PHI at 02:24. EPA +0.0WP 21%
2:24 PHI 3 & 9 (2:24) D.Pederson pass incomplete. Pederson's pass was batted down at the line by R.Godfrey. EPA -0.6WP 21%
2:24 PHI 4 & 9 (2:24) S.Landeta punts 55 yards to DAL 24, Center-D.Diaz-Infante. D.Sanders to DAL 36 for 12 yards (D.Diaz-Infante). EPA -0.3WP 20%
2:08 DAL 1 & 10 (2:08) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass incomplete to C.Warren. EPA -0.3WP 81%
2:08 DAL 2 & 10 (2:08) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass to R.Ismail to DAL 40 for 4 yards (T.Vincent). EPA -0.2WP 79%
1:58 DAL Two-Minute Warning EPA +0.0WP 80%
1:58 DAL 3 & 6 (1:58) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass incomplete to E.Mills. EPA -0.8WP 80%
1:54 DAL 4 & 6 (1:54) T.Gowin punts 42 yards to PHI 18, Center-D.Hellestrae. A.Rossum to PHI 31 for 13 yards (T.Lester). EPA -0.7WP 78%
1:43 PHI 1 & 10 (1:43) T.Small pass incomplete to C.Johnson. Pederson to Staley to Small on end-around, then pass attempt. EPA -0.2WP 25%
1:34 PHI 2 & 10 (1:34) D.Pederson pass to D.Staley pushed ob at PHI 40 for 9 yards (D.Nguyen). EPA +0.2WP 24%
1:28 PHI 3 & 1 (1:28) D.Staley up the middle to PHI 42 for 2 yards (G.Teague; E.Ekuban). EPA +0.2WP 26%
1:05 PHI 1 & 10 (1:05) D.Pederson up the middle to PHI 42 for no gain (A.Spellman). PENALTY on PHI-J.Weaver, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 42 - No Play. EPA -0.6WP 26%
0:58 PHI 1 & 20 (:58) D.Pederson pass to T.Small to PHI 41 for 9 yards (D.Sanders). EPA +0.1WP 24%
0:41 PHI 2 & 11 (:41) D.Pederson pass incomplete. Hennings bats down pass at sideline. EPA -0.2WP 24%
0:32 PHI 4 & 11 (:32) S.Landeta punts 53 yards to DAL 6, Center-D.Diaz-Infante, downed by PHI-D.Douglas. EPA -0.0WP 21%
0:20 DAL 1 & 10 (:20) T.Aikman kneels to DAL 5 for -1 yards. EPA +0.0WP 75%
0:00 END QUARTER 2 WP 22%
Quarter 3
15:00 PHI T.Gowin kicks 59 yards from DAL 30 to PHI 11. A.Rossum to PHI 26 for 15 yards (I.Reese). EPA +0.5WP 22%
15:00 PHI 1 & 10 (15:00) D.Staley right tackle to PHI 30 for 4 yards (R.Godfrey). EPA -0.1WP 23%
15:00 PHI 2 & 6 (15:00) D.Staley up the middle to PHI 30 for no gain (K.Pittman). EPA -0.8WP 22%
15:00 PHI 3 & 6 (15:00) D.Pederson sacked at PHI 26 for -4 yards (A.Spellman). EPA -1.7WP 21%
15:00 PHI 4 & 10 (15:00) S.Landeta punts 31 yards to DAL 43, Center-D.Diaz-Infante, out of bounds. Penalty on PHI, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined. EPA -0.1WP 17%
13:16 DAL 1 & 10 (13:16) E.Smith right end to PHI 48 for 9 yards (W.Thomas). PHI-M.Caldwell was injured during the play. He is Out. hamstring injury EPA +0.8WP 86%
13:16 DAL 2 & 1 (13:16) E.Smith left end to PHI 46 for 2 yards (T.Hauck; B.Taylor). EPA +0.0WP 86%
13:16 DAL 1 & 10 (13:16) T.Aikman pass to C.Warren to PHI 44 for 2 yards (J.Darling). EPA -0.4WP 86%
13:16 DAL 2 & 8 (13:16) T.Aikman pass incomplete to R.Ismail. DAL-M.Stepnoski was injured during the play. He is Out. lower back contusion EPA -0.8WP 85%
13:16 DAL 3 & 8 (13:16) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass incomplete to J.Ogden. EPA -1.8WP 83%
13:16 DAL 4 & 8 (13:16) T.Gowin punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-D.Hellestrae, Touchback. Play Challenged by Replay Assistant and REVERSED. T.Gowin punts 43 yards to PHI 1, Center-D.Hellestrae, downed by DAL-J.Ogden. EPA +1.2WP 81%
10:57 PHI 1 & 10 (10:57) D.Staley up the middle to PHI 15 for 14 yards (I.Reese). EPA +0.9WP 21%
10:57 PHI 1 & 10 (10:57) D.Staley right end to PHI 15 for no gain (D.Hambrick; G.Ellis). EPA -0.5WP 22%
13:40 PHI 2 & 10 (13:40) D.Staley up the middle to PHI 42 for 16 yards (N.Hemsley). PENALTY on DAL, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at PHI 42. EPA +0.0WP 15%
13:40 PHI 3 & 10 (13:40) D.Pederson sacked at DAL 30 for -2 yards (C.Hennings). EPA -1.9WP 21%
13:40 PHI 4 & 12 (13:40) N.Johnson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-D.Diaz-Infante, Holder-D.Pederson. EPA +2.0WP 15%
11:48 DAL D.Akers kicks 64 yards from PHI 30 to DAL 6. J.Ogden to DAL 35 for 29 yards (D.Akers; J.Bostic). EPA +0.8WP 84%
11:48 DAL 1 & 10 (11:48) E.Smith left end to DAL 39 for 4 yards (J.Darling). EPA +0.1WP 86%
11:48 DAL 2 & 6 (11:48) T.Aikman pass incomplete to J.Tucker. EPA -0.7WP 86%
11:48 DAL 3 & 6 (11:48) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass to R.Ismail pushed ob at PHI 36 for 25 yards (B.Dawkins). EPA +2.6WP 84%
11:48 DAL 1 & 10 (11:48) T.Aikman pass incomplete to E.Mills (T.Vincent). EPA -0.4WP 89%
11:48 DAL 2 & 10 (11:48) E.Smith left end pushed ob at PHI 41 for -5 yards (B.Dawkins). EPA -1.7WP 88%
11:48 DAL 3 & 15 (11:48) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass to E.Mills to PHI 33 for 8 yards (A.Rossum; T.Vincent). EPA +0.2WP 84%
11:48 DAL 4 & 7 (11:48) R.Cunningham 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-D.Hellestrae, Holder-E.Bjornson. EPA -2.7WP 84%
9:00 PHI 1 & 10 (9:00) D.Staley right guard to PHI 43 for 2 yards (C.Hennings; K.Pittman). EPA -0.3WP 22%
9:00 PHI 2 & 8 (9:00) D.Pederson pass incomplete. Hennings tips ball at line of scrimmage. EPA -0.7WP 20%
9:00 PHI 3 & 8 (9:00) D.Pederson pass to C.Johnson to DAL 21 for 36 yards (D.Sanders). EPA +3.1WP 18%
7:46 PHI Timeout #1 by PHI at 07:46. EPA +0.0WP 34%
7:46 PHI 1 & 10 (7:46) D.Pederson pass to L.Broughton to DAL 10 for 11 yards (I.Reese; D.Coakley). EPA +0.7WP 34%
7:46 PHI 1 & 10 (7:46) D.Staley up the middle to DAL 9 for 1 yard (M.Myers). EPA -0.4WP 37%
7:46 PHI 2 & 9 (7:46) D.Pederson pass to D.Staley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on PHI-D.Brzezinski, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 9 - No Play. EPA -1.2WP 34%
7:46 PHI 2 & 19 (7:46) D.Staley right guard to DAL 13 for 6 yards (K.Pittman). EPA +0.0WP 31%
7:46 PHI 4 & 13 (7:46) N.Johnson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-D.Diaz-Infante, Holder-D.Pederson. EPA +0.5WP 23%
5:42 DAL D.Akers kicks 63 yards from PHI 30 to DAL 7. J.Ogden to DAL 28 for 21 yards (B.Gardner; J.Bostic). EPA +0.3WP 75%
5:42 DAL 1 & 10 (5:42) E.Smith right tackle to DAL 36 for 8 yards (T.Hauck). EPA +0.7WP 76%
5:42 DAL 2 & 2 (5:42) E.Smith left tackle to DAL 36 for no gain (M.Mamula). EPA -0.5WP 78%
5:42 DAL 3 & 2 (5:42) E.Smith up the middle to DAL 34 for -2 yards (W.Thomas; J.Trotter). EPA -1.5WP 76%
5:42 DAL 4 & 4 (5:42) T.Gowin punts 28 yards to PHI 38, Center-D.Hellestrae, out of bounds. EPA -0.4WP 68%
3:13 PHI 1 & 10 (3:13) D.Staley right tackle to PHI 40 for 2 yards (G.Ellis). EPA -0.4WP 32%
3:13 PHI 2 & 8 (3:13) D.Staley right end to PHI 40 for no gain (I.Reese; G.Teague). PENALTY on PHI-C.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play. EPA -0.5WP 29%
3:13 PHI 2 & 18 (3:13) D.Pederson pass to T.Small to 50 for 20 yards (R.Godfrey). EPA +1.6WP 26%
3:13 PHI 1 & 10 (3:13) D.Staley right end pushed ob at DAL 31 for 19 yards (C.Hennings). EPA +1.0WP 33%
1:50 PHI 2 & 10 (1:50) D.Staley right tackle to DAL 28 for 3 yards (D.Coakley). EPA -0.1WP 40%
1:14 PHI 3 & 7 (1:14) D.Pederson pass to C.Johnson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +4.5WP 40%
1:07 PHI Timeout #2 by PHI at 01:07. EPA +0.0WP 72%
1:07 PHI N.Johnson extra point is GOOD, Center-D.Diaz-Infante, Holder-D.Pederson. EPA +0.0WP 72%
1:07 DAL D.Akers kicks 70 yards from PHI 30 to DAL 0. D.Sanders to DAL 23 for 23 yards (E.Bieniemy). PENALTY on DAL, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 23. EPA -0.3WP 25%
1:01 DAL 1 & 10 (1:01) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass incomplete to R.Ismail (J.Darling). PENALTY on PHI, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at DAL 13 - No Play. EPA +0.3WP 19%
0:55 DAL 1 & 10 (:55) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass incomplete to J.Tucker (A.Harris). EPA -0.2WP 20%
0:51 DAL 2 & 10 (:51) T.Aikman pass incomplete to J.Tucker (A.Harris). EPA -0.2WP 16%
0:47 DAL 3 & 10 (:47) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass intended for J.Ogden INTERCEPTED by B.Taylor at DAL 24. B.Taylor to DAL 11 for 13 yards (J.Ogden). EPA -4.0WP 14%
0:39 PHI 1 & 10 (:39) D.Pederson kneels to DAL 11 for no gain. EPA -0.3WP 98%
0:34 PHI Timeout #1 by DAL at 00:34. EPA +0.0WP 98%
0:34 PHI 2 & 10 (:34) D.Pederson kneels to DAL 12 for -1 yards. EPA -1.0WP 98%
0:33 PHI Timeout #2 by DAL at 00:33. EPA +0.0WP 98%
0:33 PHI 3 & 11 (:33) D.Pederson kneels to DAL 15 for -3 yards. EPA -0.9WP 98%
0:19 PHI Timeout #3 by DAL at 00:19. EPA +0.0WP 97%
0:19 PHI 4 & 14 (:19) D.Pederson kneels to DAL 20 for -5 yards. EPA -1.9WP 97%
0:11 DAL 1 & 10 (:11) (Shotgun) T.Aikman pass to R.Ismail to DAL 33 for 13 yards (J.Darling). EPA +0.0WP 7%