From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20–7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(14:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 22-D.Henry for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
0–6
Q2
10:14
JAX
(10:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
3–6
Q2
1:26
TEN
(1:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
3–9
Q2
0:03
TEN
(:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
3–12
Q3
7:47
TEN
(7:47) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
3–15
Q4
11:02
TEN
(11:02) 8-M.Mariota FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 32, RECOVERED by JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue at JAX 33. 91-Y.Ngakoue for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9–15
Q4
10:48
JAX
4-J.Lambo extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
10–15
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. TEN closed at 100%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q4
11:02
TEN
(11:02) 8-M.Mariota FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 32, RECOVERED by JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue at JAX 33. 91-Y.Ngakoue for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
96% → 79%
-17%
-10.94
Q2
14:17
TEN
(14:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 22-D.Henry for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
60% → 76%
+16%
+5.97
Q2
2:00
TEN
(2:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to JAX 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, touched at JAX 32, RECOVERED by TEN-89-P.Supernaw at JAX 23. PENALTY on JAX-85-J.Mickens, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at JAX 23.
69% → 80%
+11%
+4.88
Q2
1:15
JAX
(1:15) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 84-K.Cole to JAX 30 for 4 yards (25-A.Jackson). FUMBLES (25-A.Jackson), RECOVERED by TEN-55-J.Brown at JAX 29. 55-J.Brown to JAX 29 for no gain (27-L.Fournette). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
25% → 14%
-11%
-3.93
Q4
5:44
TEN
(5:44) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 43 for -1 yards (39-T.Gipson).
86% → 80%
-6%
-2.05
Q4
4:55
JAX
(4:55) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at JAX 22 for -10 yards (98-B.Orakpo).
23% → 17%
-6%
-1.71
Q4
9:34
TEN
(9:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 87-E.Decker.
78% → 72%
-6%
-1.50
Q1
10:12
JAX
(10:12) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 27-L.Fournette to JAX 45 for 15 yards (25-A.Jackson).
39% → 45%
+6%
+2.11
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
Each play carries its expected points added, the offense's win probability before the snap and, where charted, formation, personnel and play tags.
Quarter 1
15:00 GAME EPA +0.0WP 43%
15:00 JAX 4-R.Succop kicks 65 yards from TEN 35 to JAX 0. 30-C.Grant to JAX 22 for 22 yards (21-D.Searcy). EPA -0.3WP 43%
14:54 JAX 1 & 10 (14:54) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 27 for 5 yards (96-S.Williams). EPA +0.2WP 43%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
14:26 JAX 2 & 5 (14:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy (54-A.Williamson). EPA -0.8WP 42%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WRpressureCROSS
14:21 JAX 3 & 5 (14:21) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 84-K.Cole to JAX 31 for 4 yards (55-J.Brown). EPA -0.8WP 40%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRHITCH
13:46 JAX 4 & 1 (13:46) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to TEN 25, Center-49-C.Holba. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 41 for 16 yards (25-P.Thompson). EPA -1.3WP 38%
13:34 TEN 1 & 10 (13:34) 22-D.Henry left tackle to TEN 39 for -2 yards (93-C.Campbell). EPA -0.7WP 64%I_FORM 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
12:56 TEN 2 & 12 (12:56) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 81-J.Smith to TEN 44 for 5 yards (21-A.Bouye). Jacksonville challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) EPA -0.2WP 62%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WRHITCH
12:29 TEN 3 & 7 (12:29) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 36 for -8 yards (21-A.Bouye). PENALTY on JAX-97-M.Jackson, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 44 - No Play. EPA +0.9WP 61%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
12:01 TEN 3 & 2 (12:01) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 82-D.Walker. EPA -1.8WP 63%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRSLANT
11:57 TEN 4 & 2 (11:57) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to JAX 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. EPA -0.2WP 59%
11:49 JAX 1 & 10 (11:49) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 14 for 2 yards (99-J.Casey). EPA -0.5WP 40%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
11:18 JAX 2 & 8 (11:18) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 84-K.Cole to JAX 25 for 11 yards (25-A.Jackson). EPA +1.4WP 39%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WRSLANT
10:51 JAX 1 & 10 (10:51) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 30 for 5 yards (59-W.Woodyard; 96-S.Williams). EPA +0.1WP 42%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
10:20 JAX 2 & 5 (10:20) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short right to 12-D.Westbrook. EPA -0.8WP 41%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WRCROSS
10:12 JAX 3 & 5 (10:12) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 27-L.Fournette to JAX 45 for 15 yards (25-A.Jackson). EPA +2.1WP 39%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRFLAT
9:41 JAX 1 & 10 (9:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 24-T.Yeldon to JAX 43 for -2 yards (54-A.Williamson). EPA -0.9WP 45%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRANGLE
9:05 JAX 2 & 12 (9:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette right tackle to JAX 42 for -1 yards (97-K.Klug). EPA -1.1WP 42%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
8:20 JAX 4 & 13 (8:20) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to TEN 17, Center-49-C.Holba. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 16 for -1 yards (52-D.Payne). EPA +0.4WP 36%
8:07 TEN 1 & 10 (8:07) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 15 for -1 yards (42-B.Church). EPA -0.9WP 60%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
7:31 TEN 2 & 11 (7:31) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 3 for -12 yards (39-T.Gipson). EPA -1.7WP 59%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
6:45 TEN 3 & 23 (6:45) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle to TEN 4 for 1 yard (97-M.Jackson; 93-C.Campbell). EPA -0.9WP 54%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
6:05 TEN 4 & 22 (6:05) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to JAX 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 47 for 13 yards (14-E.Weems). PENALTY on JAX-23-T.Patmon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 37. EPA +2.1WP 52%
5:52 JAX 1 & 10 (5:52) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 35 for 8 yards (25-A.Jackson). EPA +0.5WP 44%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
5:28 JAX 2 & 2 (5:28) 27-L.Fournette right guard to JAX 36 for 1 yard (54-A.Williamson). EPA -0.2WP 45%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
4:45 JAX 3 & 1 (4:45) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 89-M.Lewis pushed ob at JAX 38 for 2 yards (37-J.Cyprien). EPA +0.4WP 43%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRFLAT
4:19 JAX 1 & 10 (4:19) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette right guard to JAX 44 for 6 yards (93-E.Walden). EPA +0.3WP 46%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
3:47 JAX 2 & 4 (3:47) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette right tackle to JAX 44 for no gain (54-A.Williamson). EPA -0.9WP 45%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
3:05 JAX 3 & 4 (3:05) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short right to 84-K.Cole (25-A.Jackson). EPA -1.7WP 43%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRpressureIN
2:59 JAX 4 & 4 (2:59) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to TEN 18, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson. EPA +0.0WP 38%
2:50 TEN 1 & 10 (2:50) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 82-D.Walker to TEN 21 for 3 yards (20-J.Ramsey). EPA -0.3WP 60%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WRFLAT
2:09 TEN 2 & 7 (2:09) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle to TEN 23 for 2 yards (93-C.Campbell). EPA -0.5WP 59%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
1:34 TEN 3 & 5 (1:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 87-E.Decker to TEN 28 for 5 yards (22-A.Colvin). EPA +1.5WP 57%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRCROSS
0:48 TEN 1 & 10 (:48) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 33 for 5 yards (54-E.Ankou; 97-M.Jackson). EPA +0.1WP 61%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
0:07 TEN 2 & 5 (:07) 22-D.Henry right end pushed ob at TEN 38 for 5 yards (44-M.Jack). EPA +0.6WP 61%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
0:00 TEN END QUARTER 1 EPA +0.0WP 63%
Quarter 2
15:00 TEN 1 & 10 (15:00) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 34 for -4 yards (99-M.Dareus). EPA -1.1WP 63%SINGLEBACK 6 OL, 1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR
14:17 TEN 2 & 14 (14:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 22-D.Henry for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +6.0WP 60%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WRSCREEN
14:04 TEN 4-R.Succop extra point is Blocked (50-T.Smith), Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 22-A.Colvin recovered the blocked kick. ATTEMPT FAILS. EPA -0.9WP 76%
14:04 JAX 4-R.Succop kicks 64 yards from TEN 35 to JAX 1. 30-C.Grant to JAX 19 for 18 yards (32-D.Fluellen). EPA -0.3WP 26%
13:58 JAX 1 & 10 (13:58) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 84-K.Cole to JAX 34 for 15 yards (33-T.Smith; 59-W.Woodyard). Tennessee challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.) EPA +0.9WP 25%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRCROSS
13:29 JAX 1 & 10 (13:29) 27-L.Fournette left guard to JAX 37 for 3 yards (54-A.Williamson; 37-J.Cyprien). EPA -0.2WP 28%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
12:21 JAX 1 & 10 (12:21) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 27-L.Fournette pushed ob at TEN 22 for 23 yards (25-A.Jackson). EPA +1.5WP 30%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRFLAT
11:46 JAX 1 & 10 (11:46) 24-T.Yeldon up the middle to TEN 19 for 3 yards (37-J.Cyprien; 54-A.Williamson). EPA -0.3WP 34%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
12:57 JAX 3 & 7 (12:57) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 88-A.Hurns pushed ob at TEN 45 for 18 yards (31-K.Byard). EPA +2.3WP 25%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WRpressureOUT
11:05 JAX 2 & 7 (11:05) 24-T.Yeldon left guard to TEN 23 for -4 yards (93-E.Walden; 91-D.Morgan). EPA -0.9WP 33%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
10:23 JAX 3 & 11 (10:23) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short right to 88-A.Hurns (24-K.Reed). EPA -0.8WP 30%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRpressureHITCH
7:24 JAX 2 & 10 (7:24) 27-L.Fournette left guard to JAX 16 for 3 yards (97-K.Klug). EPA -0.5WP 31%I_FORM 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR
6:43 JAX 3 & 7 (6:43) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 27-L.Fournette to JAX 29 for 13 yards (55-J.Brown). EPA +1.9WP 30%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRpressureANGLE
6:12 JAX 1 & 10 (6:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 38 for 9 yards (33-T.Smith; 31-K.Byard). EPA +0.6WP 34%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRCROSS
5:35 JAX 2 & 1 (5:35) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to JAX 45 for 7 yards (59-W.Woodyard; 54-A.Williamson). EPA +0.3WP 37%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
5:06 JAX 1 & 10 (5:06) 24-T.Yeldon left end to JAX 49 for 4 yards (59-W.Woodyard). EPA -0.2WP 37%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
4:34 JAX 2 & 6 (4:34) 24-T.Yeldon right tackle to TEN 49 for 2 yards (54-A.Williamson). EPA -0.3WP 38%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
3:54 JAX 3 & 4 (3:54) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep left to 84-K.Cole [98-B.Orakpo]. EPA -1.4WP 36%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRpressureCORNER
3:49 JAX 4 & 4 (3:49) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to TEN 5, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson. Tennessee challenged the too many players on field ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to TEN 5, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson. PENALTY on JAX, Offensive 12 On-field, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 49 - No Play. EPA -0.5WP 31%
3:38 JAX 4 & 9 (3:38) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Holba, Touchback. EPA -0.2WP 29%
3:30 TEN 1 & 10 (3:30) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota left end to TEN 28 for 8 yards (50-T.Smith). EPA +0.3WP 73%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
2:53 TEN 2 & 2 (2:53) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 29 for 1 yard (99-M.Dareus). EPA -0.1WP 75%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
2:09 TEN 3 & 1 (2:09) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 29 for no gain (50-T.Smith; 93-C.Campbell). EPA -1.1WP 72%I_FORM 6 OL, 1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR
2:00 Timeout #2 by TEN at 02:00. EPA +0.0WP 69%
2:00 TEN 4 & 1 (2:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to JAX 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, touched at JAX 32, RECOVERED by TEN-89-P.Supernaw at JAX 23. PENALTY on JAX-85-J.Mickens, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at JAX 23. EPA +4.9WP 69%
1:49 TEN 1 & 10 (1:49) 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at JAX 9 for 3 yards (21-A.Bouye). EPA -0.3WP 80%I_FORM 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
1:43 TEN 2 & 7 (1:43) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right end to JAX 7 for 2 yards (42-B.Church). EPA -0.3WP 80%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
1:31 Timeout #2 by JAX at 01:31. EPA +0.0WP 79%
1:31 TEN 3 & 5 (1:31) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 82-D.Walker. EPA -1.1WP 79%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRCORNER
1:26 TEN 4 & 5 (1:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. EPA +0.1WP 76%
1:21 JAX 4-R.Succop kicks 57 yards from TEN 35 to JAX 8. 30-C.Grant to JAX 26 for 18 yards (14-E.Weems). EPA -0.1WP 25%
1:15 JAX 1 & 10 (1:15) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 84-K.Cole to JAX 30 for 4 yards (25-A.Jackson). FUMBLES (25-A.Jackson), RECOVERED by TEN-55-J.Brown at JAX 29. 55-J.Brown to JAX 29 for no gain (27-L.Fournette). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. EPA -3.9WP 25% 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRHITCH
1:07 TEN 1 & 10 (1:07) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 84-C.Davis. EPA -0.2WP 86%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WRCORNER
1:01 TEN 2 & 10 (1:01) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-J.Smith to JAX 26 for 3 yards (93-C.Campbell). EPA -0.4WP 85%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRSCREEN
0:19 TEN 3 & 7 (:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 87-E.Decker to JAX 21 for 5 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). EPA +0.0WP 85%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRHITCH
0:03 Timeout #3 by TEN at 00:03. EPA +0.0WP 84%
0:03 TEN 4 & 2 (:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. EPA +0.4WP 84%
0:00 END QUARTER 2 WP 85%
Quarter 3
15:00 TEN 4-J.Lambo kicks 34 yards from JAX 35 to TEN 31, fair catch by 81-J.Smith. EPA +0.3WP 85%
15:00 TEN 1 & 10 (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota left end to TEN 38 for 7 yards (44-M.Jack). EPA +0.4WP 86%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
14:23 TEN 2 & 3 (14:23) 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at TEN 42 for 4 yards (44-M.Jack). PENALTY on TEN-88-L.Stocker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 38 - No Play. EPA -1.4WP 87%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
13:57 TEN 2 & 13 (13:57) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 84-C.Davis. EPA -0.8WP 84%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRGO
13:53 TEN 3 & 13 (13:53) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep middle to 18-R.Matthews. EPA -1.2WP 82%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRpressureIN
13:47 TEN 4 & 13 (13:47) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 63 yards to JAX 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 2. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 5 for 3 yards (13-T.Taylor; 88-L.Stocker). EPA +2.0WP 80%
13:31 JAX 1 & 10 (13:31) 27-L.Fournette right guard to JAX 9 for 4 yards (98-B.Orakpo). EPA -0.0WP 18%I_FORM 2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR
12:56 JAX 2 & 6 (12:56) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette left guard to JAX 9 for no gain (96-S.Williams; 54-A.Williamson). EPA -0.7WP 17%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
12:13 JAX 3 & 6 (12:13) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep right to 12-D.Westbrook [98-B.Orakpo]. EPA -1.2WP 16%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRCORNER
12:00 TEN 1 & 10 (12:00) 22-D.Henry left tackle to JAX 44 for -1 yards (50-T.Smith). EPA -0.7WP 89%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
11:21 TEN 2 & 11 (11:21) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles left end pushed ob at JAX 38 for 6 yards (50-T.Smith). EPA +0.1WP 87%EMPTY 0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR
10:43 TEN 3 & 5 (10:43) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 87-E.Decker to JAX 30 for 8 yards (20-J.Ramsey). EPA +1.4WP 89%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRHITCH
10:01 TEN 1 & 10 (10:01) 22-D.Henry right tackle to JAX 18 for 12 yards (42-B.Church). EPA +0.7WP 90%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
9:17 TEN 1 & 10 (9:17) 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at JAX 13 for 5 yards (39-T.Gipson). EPA +0.2WP 92%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
8:37 TEN 2 & 5 (8:37) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at JAX 20 for -7 yards (54-E.Ankou). EPA -1.6WP 92%EMPTY 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
7:51 TEN 3 & 12 (7:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 22-D.Henry. EPA -0.9WP 90%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRFLAT
7:47 TEN 4 & 12 (7:47) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. EPA +0.6WP 89%
7:42 JAX 4-R.Succop kicks 65 yards from TEN 35 to end zone, Touchback. EPA +0.0WP 11%
7:42 JAX 1 & 10 (7:42) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Westbrook. EPA -0.6WP 11%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRGO
7:36 JAX 2 & 10 (7:36) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles right end pushed ob at JAX 34 for 9 yards (37-J.Cyprien). EPA +0.9WP 10%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
7:13 JAX 3 & 1 (7:13) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 37 for 3 yards (91-D.Morgan; 54-A.Williamson). EPA +0.4WP 13%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
6:44 JAX 1 & 10 (6:44) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 88-A.Hurns to JAX 49 for 12 yards (31-K.Byard). EPA +0.9WP 13%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRIN
6:07 JAX 1 & 10 (6:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 88-A.Hurns pushed ob at TEN 43 for 8 yards (31-K.Byard). EPA +0.5WP 14%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRFLAT
5:44 JAX 2 & 2 (5:44) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to TEN 34 for 9 yards (31-K.Byard). EPA +0.7WP 14%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
5:15 JAX 1 & 10 (5:15) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Westbrook. EPA -0.5WP 13%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRGO
5:09 JAX 2 & 10 (5:09) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Westbrook (94-A.Johnson). EPA -0.7WP 12%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRCROSS
5:04 JAX 3 & 10 (5:04) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at TEN 36 for -2 yards (99-J.Casey). EPA -1.6WP 11%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
4:26 JAX 4 & 12 (4:26) (Punt formation) PENALTY on JAX-49-C.Holba, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 36 - No Play. EPA -1.3WP 9%
4:26 JAX 4 & 17 (4:26) (Punt formation) PENALTY on JAX-53-B.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 41 - No Play. EPA +0.0WP 8%
4:25 JAX 4 & 22 (4:25) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 30 yards to TEN 16, Center-49-C.Holba. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 21 for 5 yards (52-D.Payne; 49-C.Holba). EPA -0.5WP 8%
4:14 TEN 1 & 10 (4:14) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 24 for 3 yards (51-P.Posluszny; 56-D.Fowler). EPA -0.3WP 90%I_FORM 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
3:35 TEN 2 & 7 (3:35) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 82-D.Walker ran ob at TEN 33 for 9 yards. EPA +1.2WP 89%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WROUT
3:01 TEN 1 & 10 (3:01) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 26 for -7 yards (sack split by 56-D.Fowler and 42-B.Church). EPA -1.4WP 93%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
2:16 TEN 2 & 17 (2:16) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 87-E.Decker. EPA -0.8WP 91%EMPTY 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRFLAT
2:11 TEN 3 & 17 (2:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 87-E.Decker [44-M.Jack]. EPA -1.1WP 91%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRCROSS
2:02 TEN 4 & 17 (2:02) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to JAX 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 30 for 7 yards (59-W.Woodyard). EPA +0.5WP 90%
1:50 JAX 1 & 10 (1:50) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette right tackle to JAX 35 for 5 yards (99-J.Casey). EPA -0.0WP 11%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
1:09 JAX 2 & 5 (1:09) (Shotgun) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to JAX 39 for 4 yards (54-A.Williamson; 94-A.Johnson). EPA +0.3WP 10%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
0:28 JAX 3 & 1 (:28) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 89-M.Lewis to 50 for 11 yards (33-T.Smith). EPA +1.1WP 11%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRIN
0:00 JAX END QUARTER 3 EPA +0.0WP 11%
Quarter 4
15:00 JAX 1 & 10 (15:00) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to TEN 49 for 1 yard (31-K.Byard; 99-J.Casey). EPA -0.5WP 11%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
14:23 JAX 3 & 9 (14:23) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left intended for 88-A.Hurns INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard [91-D.Morgan] at TEN 30. 31-K.Byard pushed ob at JAX 41 for 29 yards (12-D.Westbrook). EPA -4.5WP 9%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRGO
14:12 TEN 1 & 10 (14:12) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 18-R.Matthews pushed ob at JAX 34 for 7 yards (42-B.Church). EPA +0.3WP 95%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WRSCREEN
13:38 TEN 2 & 3 (13:38) 22-D.Henry right tackle to JAX 39 for -5 yards (20-J.Ramsey; 39-T.Gipson). TEN-77-T.Lewan was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. EPA -1.4WP 95%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
13:03 TEN 3 & 8 (13:03) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 82-D.Walker to JAX 32 for 7 yards (50-T.Smith). EPA +0.1WP 94%EMPTY 0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WRHITCH
12:28 TEN 4 & 1 (12:28) 8-M.Mariota up the middle to JAX 30 for 2 yards (97-M.Jackson). EPA +1.6WP 95%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
11:45 TEN 1 & 10 (11:45) 22-D.Henry right tackle to JAX 26 for 4 yards (99-M.Dareus). EPA -0.0WP 96%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
11:02 TEN 2 & 6 (11:02) 8-M.Mariota FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 32, RECOVERED by JAX-91-Y.Ngakoue at JAX 33. 91-Y.Ngakoue for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA -10.9WP 96% 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
10:48 JAX 4-J.Lambo extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. EPA +0.1WP 21%
10:48 TEN 4-J.Lambo kicks 65 yards from JAX 35 to end zone, Touchback. EPA +0.0WP 79%
10:48 TEN 1 & 10 (10:48) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 81-J.Smith to TEN 29 for 4 yards (26-J.Wilson). EPA -0.2WP 79%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WRHITCH
10:09 TEN 2 & 6 (10:09) 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at TEN 32 for 3 yards (22-A.Colvin). EPA -0.3WP 78%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
9:34 TEN 3 & 3 (9:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 87-E.Decker. EPA -1.5WP 78%EMPTY 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRGO
9:28 TEN 4 & 3 (9:28) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to JAX 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-89-P.Supernaw. EPA -0.8WP 72%
9:19 JAX 1 & 10 (9:19) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 27-L.Fournette pushed ob at 50 for 16 yards (33-T.Smith). EPA +1.1WP 27%I_FORM 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRFLAT
8:45 JAX 2 & 10 (8:45) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to TEN 47 for 3 yards (54-A.Williamson). FUMBLES (54-A.Williamson), and recovers at TEN 46. EPA -0.4WP 26%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
8:04 JAX 3 & 6 (8:04) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep left to 24-T.Yeldon. EPA -1.8WP 24%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRpressureFLAT
7:57 JAX 4 & 6 (7:57) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Holba, Touchback. EPA -1.0WP 19%
7:48 TEN 1 & 10 (7:48) 8-M.Mariota scrambles right end pushed ob at TEN 35 for 15 yards (51-P.Posluszny). EPA +0.8WP 80%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
7:10 TEN 1 & 10 (7:10) 22-D.Henry left tackle to TEN 32 for -3 yards (93-C.Campbell). EPA -0.9WP 83%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
6:33 TEN 2 & 13 (6:33) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 88-L.Stocker to TEN 44 for 12 yards (51-P.Posluszny; 50-T.Smith). EPA +1.1WP 80%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WRSLANT
5:44 TEN 3 & 1 (5:44) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 43 for -1 yards (39-T.Gipson). EPA -2.0WP 86%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
5:09 TEN 4 & 2 (5:09) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 25 yards to JAX 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. EPA -1.4WP 80%
5:01 JAX 1 & 10 (5:01) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Westbrook. EPA -0.5WP 25%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRGO
4:16 JAX 3 & 20 (4:16) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep left to 89-M.Lewis. EPA -0.8WP 17%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRpressureCROSS
4:08 JAX 4 & 20 (4:08) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to TEN 29, Center-49-C.Holba. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 28 for -1 yards (51-P.Posluszny). EPA +0.4WP 12%
3:57 TEN 1 & 10 (3:57) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 32 for 4 yards (93-C.Campbell; 97-M.Jackson). EPA -0.0WP 86%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
3:13 TEN 2 & 6 (3:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota right tackle to TEN 39 for 7 yards (42-B.Church). EPA +0.6WP 85%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
3:01 Timeout #1 by JAX at 03:01. EPA +0.0WP 87%
3:01 TEN 1 & 10 (3:01) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 43 for 4 yards (51-P.Posluszny). EPA -0.1WP 87%SINGLEBACK 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
2:17 TEN 2 & 6 (2:17) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 44 for 1 yard (50-T.Smith). EPA -0.5WP 91%SINGLEBACK 6 OL, 1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR
2:13 Timeout #2 by JAX at 02:13. EPA +0.0WP 90%
2:13 TEN 3 & 5 (2:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles left end to JAX 43 for 13 yards (21-A.Bouye). EPA +1.3WP 90%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
2:00 TEN 1 & 10 (2:00) 22-D.Henry right tackle to JAX 39 for 4 yards (97-M.Jackson; 44-M.Jack). EPA -1.1WP 96%I_FORM 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
1:56 Timeout #3 by JAX at 01:56. EPA +0.0WP 95%
1:56 TEN 2 & 6 (1:56) (Run formation) 22-D.Henry up the middle to JAX 36 for 3 yards (97-M.Jackson). EPA -0.0WP 95%I_FORM 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
1:12 Timeout #1 by TEN at 01:12. EPA +0.0WP 97%
1:12 TEN 3 & 3 (1:12) 22-D.Henry left tackle to JAX 35 for 1 yard (51-P.Posluszny). EPA -0.2WP 97%I_FORM 6 OL, 1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR
0:25 Timeout #2 by TEN at 00:25. EPA +0.0WP 97%
0:25 TEN 4 & 2 (:25) (Run formation) PENALTY on TEN-8-M.Mariota, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 35 - No Play. EPA -0.8WP 97% 6 OL, 1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR
0:24 TEN 4 & 7 (:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 22 yards to JAX 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. EPA -0.4WP 97%
0:18 JAX 1 & 10 (:18) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right intended for 80-J.O'Shaughnessy INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at JAX 48. 31-K.Byard to JAX 47 for 1 yard. EPA -0.8WP 6%SHOTGUN 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRGO
0:10 TEN 1 & 10 (:10) 8-M.Mariota kneels to JAX 48 for -1 yards. EPA -0.8WP 98% 2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR