From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(1:56) K.Brown 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Schneck, Holder-K.Graham.
0β3
Q2
8:30
PIT
(8:30) J.Bettis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
0β9
Q2
7:41
PIT
K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Schneck, Holder-K.Graham.
0β10
Q2
1:56
PIT
(1:56) K.Brown 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Schneck, Holder-K.Graham.
0β13
Q3
7:46
PIT
(7:46) K.Brown 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Schneck, Holder-K.Graham.
0β16
Q4
12:03
PIT
(12:03) K.Brown 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Schneck, Holder-K.Graham.
0β19
Q4
1:38
PIT
(1:38) K.Brown 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Schneck, Holder-K.Graham.
0β22
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. PIT closed at 100%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q1
15:00
PIT
P.Dawson kicks 53 yards from CLE 30 to PIT 17. T.Edwards to PIT 27 for 10 yards (E.Little).
0% β 55%
+55%
+0.59
Q2
14:04
PIT
(14:04) (Shotgun) K.Graham pass to B.Shaw to PIT 45 for 36 yards (E.Little).
57% β 68%
+11%
+3.62
Q1
3:22
CLV
(3:22) (Shotgun) D.Pederson pass intended for D.Northcutt INTERCEPTED by L.Kirkland (J.Gildon) at CLE 37. L.Kirkland to CLE 36 for 1 yard (E.Lindsay).
47% β 36%
-10%
-3.06
Q2
8:30
PIT
(8:30) J.Bettis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
70% β 79%
+10%
+3.42
Q2
11:25
CLV
(11:25) C.Gardocki punts 48 yards to PIT 34, Center-R.Kuehl. H.Poteat to CLE 12 for 54 yards (A.Malbrough).
33% β 27%
-7%
-2.76
Q1
9:48
PIT
(9:48) (Shotgun) K.Graham sacked at PIT 29 for -5 yards (C.Brown).
53% β 47%
-6%
-1.63
Q2
6:55
CLV
(6:55) D.Pederson pass intended for K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by C.Scott at CLE 48. C.Scott to CLE 45 for 3 yards (K.Johnson).
21% β 14%
-6%
-3.05
Q1
9:20
PIT
(9:20) J.Miller punts 57 yards to CLE 14, Center-M.Schneck, downed by PIT-J.Fiala.
47% β 53%
+6%
+1.51
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
Each play carries its expected points added, the offense's win probability before the snap and, where charted, formation, personnel and play tags.
Quarter 1
15:00 PIT P.Dawson kicks 53 yards from CLE 30 to PIT 17. T.Edwards to PIT 27 for 10 yards (E.Little). EPA +0.6WP 0%
14:50 PIT 1 & 10 (14:50) J.Bettis right tackle to PIT 29 for 2 yards (S.Colinet). EPA -0.3WP 55%
14:10 PIT 2 & 8 (14:10) J.Bettis left end to PIT 33 for 4 yards (K.McKenzie; S.Colinet). EPA -0.2WP 53%
13:33 PIT 3 & 4 (13:33) K.Graham pass intended for C.Hawkins INTERCEPTED by C.Fuller at PIT 33. C.Fuller to PIT 33 for no gain. PENALTY on CLE-C.Fuller, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at PIT 33 - No Play. EPA +1.7WP 54%
13:29 PIT 1 & 10 (13:29) K.Graham pass incomplete to T.Edwards. Coverage by #33 McCutcheon. EPA -0.4WP 58%
13:18 PIT 3 & 10 (13:18) K.Graham pass incomplete to R.Huntley. Coverage by #92 Brown EPA -1.5WP 53%
13:08 PIT 4 & 10 (13:08) J.Miller punts 42 yards to CLE 13, Center-M.Schneck. D.Northcutt to CLE 20 for 7 yards (J.Simmons, A.Battles). EPA +0.3WP 49%
12:59 CLV 1 & 10 (12:59) T.Prentice up the middle to CLE 22 for 2 yards (B.Alexander). EPA -0.5WP 48%
12:27 CLV 2 & 8 (12:27) T.Prentice right end to CLE 23 for 1 yard (J.Gildon, C.Scott). EPA -0.5WP 48%
11:55 CLV 3 & 7 (11:55) D.Pederson pass to T.Prentice to CLE 27 for 4 yards (C.Scott, L.Kirkland). EPA -0.7WP 46%
11:20 CLV 4 & 3 (11:20) C.Gardocki punts 44 yards to PIT 29, Center-R.Kuehl. H.Poteat to PIT 29 for no gain. FUMBLES, recovered by PIT-C.Scott at PIT 29. C.Scott to PIT 29 for no gain (M.Smith). EPA +0.3WP 43%
11:09 PIT 1 & 10 (11:09) J.Bettis up the middle to PIT 32 for 3 yards (J.Miller). EPA -0.2WP 55%
10:33 PIT 2 & 7 (10:33) J.Bettis left tackle to PIT 34 for 2 yards (O.Roye). EPA -0.6WP 55%
9:48 PIT 3 & 5 (9:48) (Shotgun) K.Graham sacked at PIT 29 for -5 yards (C.Brown). EPA -1.6WP 53%
9:20 PIT 4 & 10 (9:20) J.Miller punts 57 yards to CLE 14, Center-M.Schneck, downed by PIT-J.Fiala. EPA +1.5WP 47%
9:08 CLV 1 & 10 (9:08) T.Prentice up the middle to CLE 23 for 9 yards (L.Flowers). EPA +0.8WP 47%
8:30 CLV 2 & 1 (8:30) D.Pederson pass incomplete to D.Northcutt. PENALTY on PIT-B.Alexander, Defensive Pass Interference, 9 yards, enforced at CLE 23 - No Play. EPA +0.5WP 49%
8:28 CLV 1 & 10 (8:28) T.Prentice up the middle to CLE 32 for no gain (K.Von Oelhoffen, K.Henry). EPA -0.5WP 51%
7:55 CLV 2 & 10 (7:55) T.Prentice up the middle to CLE 32 for no gain (E.Holmes, B.Alexander). EPA -0.7WP 49%
7:19 CLV 3 & 10 (7:19) D.Pederson scrambles to CLE 34 for 2 yards (J.Gildon). EPA -1.1WP 47%
6:45 CLV 4 & 8 (6:45) C.Gardocki punts 54 yards to PIT 12, Center-R.Kuehl. H.Poteat to PIT 24 for 12 yards (M.Smith). EPA +0.6WP 46%
6:33 PIT 1 & 10 (6:33) K.Graham pass incomplete to H.Ward. Coverage by #58 Rainer. EPA -0.5WP 55%
6:21 PIT 2 & 10 (6:21) J.Bettis up the middle to PIT 29 for 5 yards (K.McKenzie). EPA +0.0WP 53%
5:44 PIT 3 & 5 (5:44) (Shotgun) K.Graham pass to T.Edwards pushed ob at PIT 33 for 4 yards (C.Fuller). EPA -0.9WP 52%
5:37 PIT 4 & 1 (5:37) J.Miller punts 44 yards to CLE 23, Center-M.Schneck, out of bounds. EPA +0.4WP 51%
5:20 CLV 1 & 10 (5:20) D.Pederson pass to D.Northcutt to CLE 33 for 10 yards (L.Kirkland). EPA +0.7WP 50%
5:20 CLV 1 & 10 (5:20) J.White up the middle to CLE 32 for -1 yards (E.Holmes). EPA -0.6WP 51%
5:20 CLV 2 & 11 (5:20) J.White up the middle to CLE 33 for 1 yard (L.Flowers). EPA -0.5WP 50%
3:22 CLV 3 & 10 (3:22) (Shotgun) D.Pederson pass intended for D.Northcutt INTERCEPTED by L.Kirkland (J.Gildon) at CLE 37. L.Kirkland to CLE 36 for 1 yard (E.Lindsay). EPA -3.1WP 47%
3:16 PIT 1 & 10 (3:16) J.Bettis left end to CLE 33 for 3 yards (S.Colinet). EPA -0.2WP 64%
12:34 CLV 1 & 10 (12:34) D.Pederson pass to K.Johnson to CLE 16 for 3 yards (D.Washington, L.Flowers). EPA -0.2WP 39%
12:15 CLV 2 & 7 (12:15) T.Prentice up the middle to CLE 18 for 2 yards (E.Holmes, C.Sullivan). EPA -0.3WP 38%
11:30 CLV 3 & 5 (11:30) D.Pederson pass incomplete to K.Johnson (L.Flowers). Flowers shaken-up on the play. EPA -1.0WP 37%
11:25 CLV 4 & 5 (11:25) C.Gardocki punts 48 yards to PIT 34, Center-R.Kuehl. H.Poteat to CLE 12 for 54 yards (A.Malbrough). EPA -2.8WP 33%
11:07 PIT 1 & 10 (11:07) #10 Stewart at QB J.Bettis left guard to CLE 8 for 4 yards (W.Rainer, M.Moore). EPA -0.1WP 73%
10:32 PIT 2 & 6 (10:32) J.Bettis right tackle to CLE 10 for -2 yards (M.Moore; C.Brown). EPA -1.0WP 74%
9:54 PIT 3 & 8 (9:54) (Shotgun) K.Stewart pass incomplete to H.Ward (C.Fuller). PENALTY on CLE-C.Brown, Roughing the Passer, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 10 - No Play. EPA +1.8WP 71%
9:49 PIT 1 & 5 (9:49) J.Bettis up the middle to CLE 2 for 3 yards (C.Brown, M.Moore). EPA +0.1WP 75%
9:15 PIT Timeout #1 by PIT at 09:15. EPA +0.0WP 75%
9:15 PIT 2 & 2 (9:15) K.Stewart sacked at CLE 4 for -2 yards (D.McCutcheon). EPA -1.4WP 75%
8:30 PIT 3 & 4 (8:30) (Shotgun) K.Stewart right end to CLE 1 for 3 yards (C.Fuller). EPA -0.5WP 72%
8:30 PIT 4 & 1 (8:30) J.Bettis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +3.4WP 70%
7:41 PIT K.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Schneck, Holder-K.Graham. EPA +0.0WP 79%
7:41 CLV K.Brown kicks 66 yards from PIT 30 to CLE 4. J.White to CLE 26 for 22 yards (H.Poteat). EPA +0.3WP 20%
7:32 CLV 1 & 10 (7:32) T.Prentice right guard to CLE 30 for 4 yards (L.Kirkland). EPA -0.1WP 21%
6:55 CLV 2 & 6 (6:55) D.Pederson pass intended for K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by C.Scott at CLE 48. C.Scott to CLE 45 for 3 yards (K.Johnson). EPA -3.1WP 21%
6:46 PIT 1 & 10 (6:46) J.Bettis right end to CLE 36 for 9 yards (M.Thompson). EPA +0.5WP 86%
6:06 PIT 2 & 1 (6:06) J.Bettis up the middle to CLE 33 for 3 yards (M.Moore). EPA +0.2WP 87%
5:28 PIT 1 & 10 (5:28) K.Stewart pass to P.Burress to CLE 19 for 14 yards (E.Little). EPA +0.8WP 87%
4:46 PIT 1 & 10 (4:46) J.Bettis left guard to CLE 14 for 5 yards (P.Ellsworth; A.Miller). PENALTY on CLE-J.Miller, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 19 - No Play. EPA +0.6WP 89%
4:24 PIT 1 & 5 (4:24) J.Bettis left tackle to CLE 14 for no gain (J.Miller; C.Brown). EPA -0.3WP 89%
3:38 PIT 2 & 5 (3:38) K.Stewart scrambles to CLE 7 for 7 yards (O.Roye). EPA +0.5WP 88%
2:52 PIT 1 & 7 (2:52) J.Bettis left guard to CLE 4 for 3 yards (K.McKenzie, E.Little). EPA +0.1WP 90%
2:12 PIT 2 & 4 (2:12) J.Bettis right guard to CLE 2 for 2 yards (M.Moore, W.Rainer). EPA -0.5WP 89%
2:00 PIT Timeout at 02:00. Two-minute warning. EPA +0.0WP 90%
2:00 PIT 3 & 2 (2:00) K.Stewart sacked at CLE 3 for -1 yards (O.Roye). FUMBLES (O.Roye), RECOVERED by CLE-J.Miller at CLE 0. Touchback. Play Challenged by PIT and REVERSED. K.Stewart pass incomplete to P.Burress (O.Roye). EPA -1.5WP 90%
1:56 PIT 4 & 2 (1:56) K.Brown 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Schneck, Holder-K.Graham. EPA +0.1WP 88%
1:54 CLV K.Brown kicks 63 yards from PIT 30 to CLE 7. L.Jackson to CLE 20 for 13 yards (H.Ward). EPA +0.0WP 12%
1:54 CLV 1 & 10 (1:54) T.Prentice left tackle to CLE 27 for 7 yards (K.Von Oelhoffen). EPA +0.4WP 12%
0:32 CLV 3 & 8 (:32) (Shotgun) T.Prentice left guard to CLE 35 for 2 yards (J.Porter, C.Sullivan). EPA -0.2WP 10%
0:27 CLV Timeout #2 by PIT at 00:27. EPA +0.0WP 10%
0:27 CLV 4 & 6 (:27) C.Gardocki punts 43 yards to PIT 22, Center-R.Kuehl, out of bounds. EPA +0.0WP 10%
0:19 PIT 1 & 10 (:19) K.Stewart up the middle to PIT 21 for -1 yards. Takes a knee EPA -0.0WP 91%
0:00 END QUARTER 2 WP 11%
Quarter 3
15:00 CLV K.Brown kicks 63 yards from PIT 30 to CLE 7. L.Jackson to CLE 26 for 19 yards (M.Vrabel). PENALTY on CLE-M.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 26. EPA -0.2WP 11%
14:50 CLV 1 & 10 (14:50) D.Pederson pass to D.Northcutt to CLE 28 for 12 yards (L.Kirkland). EPA +0.7WP 10%
14:32 CLV 1 & 10 (14:32) T.Prentice left guard to CLE 30 for 2 yards (L.Kirkland, L.Flowers). EPA -0.3WP 11%
13:40 CLV 2 & 8 (13:40) D.Pederson up the middle to CLE 32 for 2 yards (L.Kirkland). EPA -0.3WP 9%
13:16 CLV 3 & 6 (13:16) (Shotgun) D.Pederson pass incomplete to D.Northcutt. Coverage by #30 Scott and #23 Simmons. EPA -1.3WP 10%
13:12 CLV 4 & 6 (13:12) PENALTY on CLE-J.White, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 32 - No Play. Gardocki punt out of bounds to P19. EPA -1.2WP 9%
13:03 CLV 4 & 21 (13:03) C.Gardocki punts 50 yards to PIT 33, Center-R.Kuehl. H.Poteat to PIT 41 for 8 yards (T.Rogers). EPA +0.6WP 7%
12:48 PIT 1 & 10 (12:48) PENALTY on PIT-W.Gandy, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 41 - No Play. EPA -0.5WP 94%
11:40 CLV 2 & 10 (11:40) T.Prentice right tackle to CLE 13 for 4 yards (B.Alexander). EPA -0.3WP 7%
11:02 CLV 3 & 6 (11:02) (Shotgun) D.Pederson pass intended for A.Shea INTERCEPTED by B.Alexander at CLE 40. B.Alexander to CLE 33 for 7 yards (A.Shea). EPA -2.1WP 8%
10:54 PIT 1 & 10 (10:54) J.Bettis left end to CLE 24 for 9 yards (P.Ellsworth). EPA +0.6WP 95%
10:30 PIT 2 & 1 (10:30) J.Bettis left guard to CLE 22 for 2 yards (J.Miller). EPA -0.1WP 96%
9:51 PIT 1 & 10 (9:51) J.Bettis right tackle to CLE 17 for 5 yards (M.Moore, O.Roye). EPA +0.1WP 95%
9:10 PIT 2 & 5 (9:10) J.Bettis right tackle to CLE 14 for 3 yards (M.Moore, P.Ellsworth). EPA -0.2WP 95%
8:28 PIT 3 & 2 (8:28) R.Huntley up the middle to CLE 13 for 1 yard (O.Roye, K.McKenzie). EPA -1.6WP 96%
7:46 PIT 4 & 1 (7:46) K.Brown 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Schneck, Holder-K.Graham. EPA +0.5WP 95%
7:43 CLV K.Brown kicks 67 yards from PIT 30 to CLE 3. J.White to CLE 35 for 32 yards (H.Poteat). EPA +0.9WP 6%
7:31 CLV 1 & 10 (7:31) D.Northcutt left end to CLE 32 for -3 yards (K.Henry). On the reverse from #41 Prentice EPA -0.8WP 8%
6:53 CLV 2 & 13 (6:53) D.Pederson sacked at CLE 24 for -8 yards (J.Gildon). EPA -1.4WP 7%
6:19 CLV 3 & 21 (6:19) T.Prentice up the middle to CLE 34 for 10 yards (B.Alexander, K.Von Oelhoffen). EPA -0.2WP 5%
5:45 CLV 4 & 11 (5:45) C.Gardocki punts 44 yards to PIT 22, Center-R.Kuehl, downed by CLE-T.Saleh. EPA +0.8WP 5%
5:29 PIT 1 & 10 (5:29) J.Bettis up the middle to PIT 29 for 7 yards (D.Holland). EPA +0.6WP 96%
4:52 PIT 2 & 3 (4:52) J.Bettis right tackle to PIT 31 for 2 yards (D.Holland; J.Miller). EPA -0.2WP 96%
4:17 PIT 3 & 1 (4:17) J.Bettis right tackle to PIT 34 for 3 yards (C.Brown). EPA +0.6WP 96%
3:40 PIT 1 & 10 (3:40) K.Stewart pass incomplete to H.Ward. Pressure by #25 Sanders EPA -0.4WP 96%
3:36 PIT 2 & 10 (3:36) (Shotgun) C.Fuamatu-Ma'afala right end to CLE 46 for 20 yards (R.Barnes). #45 Fuamatu-Ma'afala shaken up on the play. EPA +1.7WP 96%
3:00 PIT 1 & 10 (3:00) J.Bettis left end to CLE 47 for -1 yards (A.Miller; W.Rainer). EPA +0.3WP 97%
2:19 PIT 2 & 11 (2:19) K.Stewart sacked at PIT 45 for -8 yards (J.Miller). PENALTY on CLE-J.Miller, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 45. EPA +0.0WP 97%
1:58 PIT 1 & 10 (1:58) J.Bettis up the middle to CLE 33 for 7 yards (M.Thompson). EPA +0.3WP 98%
1:22 PIT 2 & 3 (1:22) J.Bettis up the middle to CLE 28 for 5 yards (M.Moore). EPA +0.4WP 98%
1:22 PIT 1 & 10 (1:22) J.Bettis right end to CLE 27 for 1 yard (W.Rainer). EPA -0.4WP 98%
0:00 PIT END QUARTER 3 EPA +0.0WP 98%
Quarter 4
15:00 PIT 2 & 9 (15:00) T.Edwards right tackle to CLE 29 for -2 yards (C.Brown). On the reverse from #36 Bettis. EPA -1.0WP 98%
14:14 PIT 3 & 11 (14:14) (Shotgun) K.Stewart pass to B.Shaw to CLE 11 for 18 yards (E.Little, D.McCutcheon). EPA +2.2WP 98%
13:29 PIT 1 & 10 (13:29) J.Bettis right guard to CLE 7 for 4 yards (J.Miller). EPA -0.1WP 99%
12:51 PIT 2 & 6 (12:51) K.Stewart pass incomplete to H.Ward. Thrown out of the endzone, coverage by #24 Fuller. EPA -0.8WP 98%
12:43 PIT Timeout #1 by PIT at 12:43. EPA +0.0WP 98%
12:43 PIT 3 & 6 (12:43) (Shotgun) K.Stewart pass to R.Huntley to CLE 8 for -1 yards (W.Rainer). EPA -1.1WP 98%
12:03 PIT 4 & 7 (12:03) K.Brown 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Schneck, Holder-K.Graham. EPA +0.2WP 97%
12:00 CLV K.Brown kicks 53 yards from PIT 30 to CLE 17. J.White to PIT 47 for 36 yards (T.Edwards). PENALTY on PIT-T.Edwards, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 47. EPA +2.9WP 1%
11:42 CLV 1 & 10 (11:42) D.Pederson pass to M.Campbell to PIT 30 for 2 yards (J.Gildon). EPA -0.3WP 3%
11:03 CLV 2 & 8 (11:03) D.Pederson pass to L.Jackson to PIT 25 for 5 yards (C.Scott). EPA +0.1WP 2%
10:23 CLV 3 & 3 (10:23) D.Pederson pass incomplete to L.Jackson. Pressure by Townsend, coverage by Scott. EPA -1.3WP 2%
10:23 CLV 4 & 3 (10:23) P.Dawson 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-R.Kuehl, Holder-C.Gardocki. EPA -2.8WP 2%
10:13 PIT 1 & 10 (10:13) J.Bettis right end to PIT 33 for no gain (M.Moore). EPA -0.4WP 100%
9:31 PIT 2 & 10 (9:31) J.Bettis up the middle to PIT 35 for 2 yards (O.Roye, M.Moore). EPA -0.6WP 100%
8:44 PIT 3 & 8 (8:44) K.Stewart pass to T.Edwards to PIT 46 for 11 yards (O.Roye). EPA +1.9WP 100%
7:54 PIT 1 & 10 (7:54) J.Bettis left guard to CLE 48 for 6 yards (E.Little). PENALTY on PIT-W.Gandy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 46 - No Play. Penalty on PIT-H.Ward, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. EPA -0.8WP 100%
7:16 PIT 1 & 20 (7:16) K.Stewart pass to C.Hawkins to CLE 48 for 16 yards (D.McCutcheon). EPA +0.9WP 100%
6:34 PIT 2 & 4 (6:34) J.Bettis right end to CLE 45 for 3 yards (L.Sanders). EPA +0.0WP 100%
5:47 PIT 3 & 1 (5:47) K.Stewart pass to H.Ward to CLE 40 for 5 yards (D.McCutcheon). EPA +0.7WP 100%
5:15 PIT 1 & 10 (5:15) J.Bettis up the middle to CLE 38 for 2 yards (C.Brown, M.Moore). EPA -0.4WP 100%
4:19 PIT 2 & 8 (4:19) J.Bettis left end to CLE 30 for 8 yards (R.Barnes, L.Sanders). EPA +0.7WP 100%
3:45 PIT 1 & 10 (3:45) R.Huntley left tackle to CLE 30 for no gain (J.Miller). EPA -0.4WP 100%
3:05 PIT 2 & 10 (3:05) K.Stewart pass to P.Burress to CLE 19 for 11 yards (D.McCutcheon). EPA +1.0WP 100%
2:24 PIT 1 & 10 (2:24) R.Huntley left tackle to CLE 21 for -2 yards. EPA -0.6WP 100%