From the vault · December 26, 1964 · 1964 AFL Championship Game: The Buffalo Bills beat the San Diego Chargers 20β7 at War Memorial Stadium to win the 1964 AFL championship. Box score
(:27) 3-J.Brown 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-J.Darche, Holder-16-T.Rouen.
3β0
Q2
2:00
PIT
(2:00) 7-B.Roethlisberger left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by Review Assistant and Upheld.
3β6
Q2
1:55
PIT
3-J.Reed extra point is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-17-C.Gardocki.
3β7
Q3
14:50
PIT
(14:50) 39-W.Parker right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Longest run from scrimmage in Super Bowl history. Previous was Marcus Allen in SB XVIII (Raiders vs Redskins)... 74 yards.
3β13
Q3
14:38
PIT
3-J.Reed extra point is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-17-C.Gardocki.
3β14
Q3
6:51
SEA
(6:51) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 86-J.Stevens for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9β14
Q3
6:45
SEA
3-J.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-52-J.Darche, Holder-16-T.Rouen.
10β14
Q4
9:04
PIT
(9:04) 82-A.Randle El pass to 86-H.Ward for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a reverse pass. QB pitched left to 39-Parker. Parker hands off to 82-Randle El coming right who throws for a TD.
10β20
Q4
8:56
PIT
3-J.Reed extra point is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-17-C.Gardocki.
10β21
Win probability
Home win probability through the game (nflfastR model). Dots mark scores. The dashed line is the Vegas-informed model, which starts from the closing point spread. PIT closed at 100%.
Turning points
Qtr
Clock
Team
Play
Win prob.
Swing
EPA
Q4
10:54
SEA
(10:54) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass intended for 82-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 24-I.Taylor at PIT 5. 24-I.Taylor to PIT 29 for 24 yards (8-M.Hasselbeck). PENALTY on SEA-8-M.Hasselbeck, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 29.
39% β 21%
-18%
-4.03
Q3
14:50
PIT
(14:50) 39-W.Parker right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Longest run from scrimmage in Super Bowl history. Previous was Marcus Allen in SB XVIII (Raiders vs Redskins)... 74 yards.
68% β 84%
+16%
+7.10
Q2
3:58
PIT
(3:58) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass to 86-H.Ward to SEA 3 for 37 yards (28-M.Boulware).
51% β 66%
+14%
+4.83
Q3
7:52
PIT
(7:52) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass intended for 80-C.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Herndon at SEA 4. 31-K.Herndon to PIT 20 for 76 yards (82-A.Randle El). Longest interception return in Super Bowl history. Previous was Willie Brown of the Raiders in Super Bowl XI (75 yards).
92% β 79%
-13%
-8.40
Q4
14:17
SEA
(14:17) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 84-B.Engram to PIT 30 for 17 yards (24-I.Taylor).
33% β 44%
+11%
+2.31
Q4
9:04
PIT
(9:04) 82-A.Randle El pass to 86-H.Ward for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a reverse pass. QB pitched left to 39-Parker. Parker hands off to 82-Randle El coming right who throws for a TD.
81% β 92%
+11%
+4.56
Q2
10:19
PIT
(10:19) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass intended for 82-A.Randle El INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Boulware at SEA 17. 28-M.Boulware to SEA 17 for no gain (82-A.Randle El).
54% β 45%
-9%
-2.25
Q3
6:51
SEA
(6:51) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 86-J.Stevens for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19% β 28%
+9%
+3.32
The eight plays that moved the offense's win probability the most (WPA); EPA is expected points added.
12:07 PIT 2 & 10 (12:07) 36-J.Bettis left end to PIT 22 for 2 yards (90-M.Tubbs). EPA -0.6WP 48%
11:25 PIT 3 & 8 (11:25) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass to 82-A.Randle El to PIT 30 for 8 yards (51-L.Tatupu). EPA +1.7WP 45%
10:44 PIT 1 & 10 (10:44) 86-H.Ward left end pushed ob at PIT 48 for 18 yards (33-M.Manuel).SEA-33-M.Manuel was injured during the play. He is Out. Play was an end around. EPA +1.1WP 50%
10:19 PIT 1 & 10 (10:19) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass intended for 82-A.Randle El INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Boulware at SEA 17. 28-M.Boulware to SEA 17 for no gain (82-A.Randle El). EPA -2.2WP 54%
10:09 SEA 1 & 10 (10:09) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 84-B.Engram to SEA 20 for 3 yards (53-C.Haggans). EPA -0.2WP 55%
9:32 SEA 2 & 7 (9:32) 37-S.Alexander right tackle to SEA 24 for 4 yards (55-J.Porter). EPA -0.1WP 54%
8:47 SEA 3 & 3 (8:47) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 38-M.Strong to SEA 26 for 2 yards (26-D.Townsend). EPA -0.8WP 54%
8:27 SEA 4 & 1 (8:27) 16-T.Rouen punts 45 yards to PIT 29, Center-52-J.Darche. 82-A.Randle El to PIT 41 for 12 yards (53-N.Koutouvides). EPA -0.6WP 51%
8:15 PIT 1 & 10 (8:15) 39-W.Parker right end to PIT 42 for 1 yard (51-L.Tatupu; 56-L.Hill). EPA -0.3WP 53%
7:37 PIT 2 & 9 (7:37) 39-W.Parker left tackle to PIT 45 for 3 yards (56-L.Hill). EPA -0.3WP 51%
6:59 PIT 3 & 6 (6:59) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass to 86-H.Ward to SEA 43 for 12 yards (23-M.Trufant). Shovel pass on a scramble. EPA +1.7WP 50%
6:15 PIT 1 & 10 (6:15) 39-W.Parker left tackle to SEA 42 for 1 yard (98-G.Wistrom). EPA -0.4WP 58%
5:36 PIT 2 & 9 (5:36) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass to 80-C.Wilson to SEA 22 for 20 yards (23-M.Trufant). EPA +1.8WP 56%
14:50 PIT 2 & 10 (14:50) 39-W.Parker right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Longest run from scrimmage in Super Bowl history. Previous was Marcus Allen in SB XVIII (Raiders vs Redskins)... 74 yards. TDEPA +7.1WP 68%
14:38 PIT 3-J.Reed extra point is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-17-C.Gardocki. EPA +0.0WP 84%
14:38 SEA 3-J.Reed kicks 66 yards from PIT 30 to SEA 4. 39-J.Scobey to SEA 29 for 25 yards (99-B.Keisel). EPA +0.6WP 15%
11:45 SEA 4 & 5 (11:45) 3-J.Brown 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-52-J.Darche, Holder-16-T.Rouen. EPA -2.8WP 14%
11:40 PIT 1 & 10 (11:40) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass to 86-H.Ward pushed ob at SEA 45 for 15 yards (35-E.Pruitt). EPA +1.1WP 90%
11:12 PIT 1 & 10 (11:12) 36-J.Bettis left tackle to SEA 39 for 6 yards (51-L.Tatupu). EPA +0.3WP 90%
10:33 PIT 2 & 4 (10:33) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete to 82-A.Randle El. EPA -0.8WP 91%
10:27 PIT 3 & 4 (10:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass to 86-H.Ward to SEA 23 for 16 yards (28-M.Boulware; 31-K.Herndon). EPA +2.3WP 90%
9:46 PIT 1 & 10 (9:46) 36-J.Bettis left end to SEA 11 for 12 yards (35-E.Pruitt). EPA +0.7WP 92%
9:05 PIT 1 & 10 (9:05) 36-J.Bettis right tackle to SEA 7 for 4 yards (35-E.Pruitt). EPA -0.1WP 93%
8:26 PIT 2 & 6 (8:26) 36-J.Bettis right end to SEA 7 for no gain (28-M.Boulware). EPA -0.9WP 93%
7:52 Timeout #1 by PIT at 07:52. EPA +0.0WP 92%
7:52 PIT 3 & 6 (7:52) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass intended for 80-C.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Herndon at SEA 4. 31-K.Herndon to PIT 20 for 76 yards (82-A.Randle El). Longest interception return in Super Bowl history. Previous was Willie Brown of the Raiders in Super Bowl XI (75 yards). EPA -8.4WP 92%
7:38 SEA 1 & 10 (7:38) 37-S.Alexander up the middle to PIT 16 for 4 yards (26-D.Townsend; 28-C.Hope). EPA -0.0WP 21%
6:51 SEA 3 & 6 (6:51) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 86-J.Stevens for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TDEPA +3.3WP 19%
6:45 SEA 3-J.Brown extra point is GOOD, Center-52-J.Darche, Holder-16-T.Rouen. EPA +0.0WP 28%
6:45 PIT 3-J.Brown kicks 73 yards from SEA 30 to PIT -3. 24-I.Taylor, Touchback.PIT-56-C.Okobi was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful. EPA +0.0WP 71%
6:45 PIT 1 & 10 (6:45) 39-W.Parker right end to PIT 23 for 3 yards (51-L.Tatupu). EPA -0.4WP 71%
6:12 PIT 2 & 7 (6:12) 39-W.Parker left tackle to PIT 26 for 3 yards (51-L.Tatupu; 54-D.Lewis). EPA -0.1WP 70%
5:33 PIT 3 & 4 (5:33) (Shotgun) 34-V.Haynes right tackle to PIT 28 for 2 yards (56-L.Hill). EPA -1.2WP 69%
4:54 PIT 4 & 2 (4:54) 17-C.Gardocki punts 47 yards to SEA 25, Center-60-G.Warren. 81-P.Warrick to SEA 27 for 2 yards (92-J.Harrison). EPA +1.0WP 66%
2:55 PIT 4 & 2 (2:55) 17-C.Gardocki punts 54 yards to SEA 2, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-99-B.Keisel. EPA +1.9WP 71%
2:41 SEA 1 & 10 (2:41) 37-S.Alexander up the middle to SEA 7 for 5 yards (51-J.Farrior). EPA +0.1WP 30%
2:13 SEA 2 & 5 (2:13) 8-M.Hasselbeck right end to SEA 15 for 8 yards (91-A.Smith).PIT-53-C.Haggans was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful. EPA +0.9WP 28%
1:34 SEA 1 & 10 (1:34) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 83-R.Hannam to SEA 18 for 3 yards (55-J.Porter). EPA -0.3WP 30%
1:01 SEA 2 & 7 (1:01) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 83-R.Hannam to SEA 27 for 9 yards (50-L.Foote). EPA +1.0WP 29%
0:29 SEA 1 & 10 (:29) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 84-B.Engram to SEA 48 for 21 yards (24-I.Taylor; 28-C.Hope). EPA +1.4WP 32%
15:00 SEA 2 & 10 (15:00) 37-S.Alexander left end to PIT 47 for 5 yards (98-C.Hampton). EPA -0.3WP 33%
14:17 SEA 3 & 5 (14:17) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 84-B.Engram to PIT 30 for 17 yards (24-I.Taylor). EPA +2.3WP 33%
13:32 SEA 1 & 10 (13:32) 37-S.Alexander right tackle to PIT 24 for 6 yards (43-T.Polamalu). EPA +0.4WP 44%
13:10 SEA 2 & 4 (13:10) 37-S.Alexander up the middle to PIT 19 for 5 yards (91-A.Smith). EPA +0.4WP 47%
12:35 SEA 1 & 10 (12:35) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 86-J.Stevens to PIT 1 for 18 yards (28-C.Hope; 43-T.Polamalu). PENALTY on SEA-75-S.Locklear, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 19 - No Play. EPA -1.2WP 49%
12:08 SEA 1 & 20 (12:08) 8-M.Hasselbeck sacked at PIT 34 for -5 yards (98-C.Hampton). EPA -1.1WP 42%
11:34 SEA 2 & 25 (11:34) 37-S.Alexander left end to PIT 27 for 7 yards (55-J.Porter). EPA +0.3WP 36%
10:54 SEA 3 & 18 (10:54) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass intended for 82-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 24-I.Taylor at PIT 5. 24-I.Taylor to PIT 29 for 24 yards (8-M.Hasselbeck). PENALTY on SEA-8-M.Hasselbeck, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 29. EPA -4.0WP 39%
10:46 PIT 1 & 10 (10:46) 39-W.Parker up the middle to PIT 45 for 1 yard (90-M.Tubbs). EPA -0.5WP 79%
10:10 PIT 2 & 9 (10:10) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass to 82-A.Randle El pushed ob at SEA 48 for 7 yards (35-E.Pruitt). EPA +0.3WP 77%
9:44 PIT 3 & 2 (9:44) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger up the middle to SEA 43 for 5 yards (27-J.Babineaux). EPA +1.0WP 79%
9:04 PIT 1 & 10 (9:04) 82-A.Randle El pass to 86-H.Ward for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play was a reverse pass. QB pitched left to 39-Parker. Parker hands off to 82-Randle El coming right who throws for a TD. TDEPA +4.6WP 81%
8:56 PIT 3-J.Reed extra point is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-17-C.Gardocki. EPA +0.0WP 92%
8:56 SEA 3-J.Reed kicks 69 yards from PIT 30 to SEA 1. 39-J.Scobey to SEA 16 for 15 yards (21-R.Colclough). EPA -0.3WP 7%
8:40 SEA 2 & 10 (8:40) 8-M.Hasselbeck right end to SEA 34 for 18 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PIT-43-T.Polamalu at SEA 40. 43-T.Polamalu to SEA 33 for 7 yards (61-R.Tobeck). Play Challenged by SEA and REVERSED. 8-M.Hasselbeck right end to SEA 34 for 18 yards (50-L.Foote). EPA +1.6WP 5%
8:11 SEA 1 & 10 (8:11) 37-S.Alexander left tackle to SEA 38 for 4 yards (98-C.Hampton). EPA +0.1WP 7%
7:33 SEA 2 & 6 (7:33) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass to 87-J.Jurevicius pushed ob at PIT 49 for 13 yards (26-D.Townsend). EPA +1.0WP 7%